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January Banter 2021


Eskimo Joe
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It's possible i might go the entire month without snow, but threats around the 22nd and the 26th might put that in jeopardy. NAM state looks like it'll go positive at the beginning of February, so I might end up not getting anything this entire winter. 

Even less than last winter. I got an inch that winter. I highly doubt it'll end up that way but man things are looking kinda bleak

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5 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Negativity spreads like wildfire around here and things are already smoldering this morning.  If early 12z runs don’t show blue, it will be a straight up dumpster fire in every single thread.

T-minus 45 mins til PSU comes in to remind us all that the pattern change is still on target and there are ample opportunities with specific dates and how the progression will evolve.

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25 minutes ago, mappy said:

i guess they avatar change didn't do much. :( 

Let’s not give up yet. I remind myself of 92-93. I don’t know what it was like up here but where I lived there was an early Dec storm and then literally nothing until the second weekend of Feb. That kicked off an epic 6 week period that culminated with the greatest storm ever, the 93 superstorm (all hail the Superstorm)

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18 minutes ago, CAPE said:

lol people need to find something else to focus on.

The chances are there beginning next week. Disturbances zipping across under the blocking is chaotic, with plenty of uncertainty from one model cycle to the next.

As others have said  if we are we to get something, it probably won’t show up in the long range. More likely mid range.

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53 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Negativity spreads like wildfire around here and things are already smoldering this morning.  If early 12z runs don’t show blue, it will be a straight up dumpster fire in every single thread.

So in other words just a normal day in the mid-Atlantic forum?

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53 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Let’s not give up yet. I remind myself of 92-93. I don’t know what it was like up here but where I lived there was an early Dec storm and then literally nothing until the second weekend of Feb. That kicked off an epic 6 week period that culminated with the greatest storm ever, the 93 superstorm (all hail the Superstorm)

Honestly, I've been saying March is when we score due to the sustained remnants of HL blocking and the pattern getting more convoluted than usual. Im not giving up until May! Doubt we are going to see anything sustained wrt wall to wall winter weather for weeks on end tho....I've already written that off. And that is fine with me tbh.

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12 minutes ago, dailylurker said:

Only problem is there's 0 cold on this side of the earth. If something does pop in short range it will just be rain.

In the near term yes, but colder air is working southward courtesy of the -EPO. Late next week/weekend is probably our first shot at frozen, but its going to be touchy because of the SER. Beyond that, as advertised, the colder air bleeds eastward and the ridge gets suppressed/shifts west.

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20 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Do you think it..the op GFS...is right?  I don’t think the op is resolving the block right now.  Wishcasting.  EDIT: CMC also looks similar.  

we might have to wait till end of Jan/early Feb like our 2010 winter. We are still on track for a mini version of that winter minus the STJ, snow and cold

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19 minutes ago, mattie g said:

Just walked my daughter to have her twice-weekly outside "art class" with another homeschooled friend of hers. As we were walking, the thought "It'll be nice when spring is here" came into my mind.

Worked outside today and didn't even need a jacket.  If we can't have winter then at least don't have it be cold and windy and shitty.

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