Maestrobjwa Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 You'd think I'm one of the most obnoxious posters on here...smh Yeah I ask a lot of questions and have learned a lot...but dang it what the heck is wrong with trying to get as much detail as you can with something so you know better what possibilities are more/less likely? Setting expectations...I like to out mine in the most reasonable place possible. So whatever details I can know beforehand...the better. I don't think I've been as bad as others on here like...at all. @Bob Chill You read me a little wrong: this time around my repeated questions were to get to understanding of what possibilities to expect with this complicated setup...not so much from anxiety (although I've had that...spend too much time on this board this week). I didn't understand the Miller B/possible hybrid setup for this time, and what would make it more or less likely to work. That's literally all I wanted to know. Don't get me wrong...I've learned a lot from you, PSU, others. And even this time I'm learning about basing expectation on previous climo. I don't know anymore what questions are good or bad to ask, since apparently that's a thing. I'd rather not get plastered in front of everybody...maybe I'll ask my questions to folks privately...or not at all, I don't know. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 It’s just got real on the sledding hill with neighbors. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricanegiants Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 So, thank goodness for the banter thread. I love this forum. It’s awesome to have this hobby. I love it. To that end, quite frankly, certainly this qualifies as a typical bust for DC and the surrounding counties. I’m all in for hope but how many times do we need to be shown the door when the forecast states “a lull but wait for round 2!!” It rarely materializes. Once we start taking about the second round, it’s the kiss of death. I hope I’m wrong but as people get ridiculed for having hopes too high—walking away with 4....maybe 5 inches after the average model projection had 6-10 or more—I can’t find fault in the disappointment. I’m hard pressed to remember the last time the snow “picked back up” in this area due to a coastal bomb. Not to mention even up to 9:30 am, the model projection and banter said 10:00 am to 4:00 pm is the “heavy snow.” That didn’t happen. Here’s hoping I’m wrong but 3-4 on Sunday with pixie dust at 4:00 pm presently??—I hope to be surprised. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 someone with knowledge: what should I root for to see nyc bust super hard, with like 2-4”? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 This one stings, regardless of what climo says for our area. We have spotty, inconsistent precip and 2-3” totals across the area from the WAA. No real snow rates and now of course, the last few sets of model runs have locked in up to 2’ for PHL up to NYC. So many good model runs even giving my yard over by PSU 10-12”+. Still seeing that on some and wondering where this is coming from. A frustrating miss. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 1 minute ago, losetoa6 said: The coastal hasn't formed yet. Imo far from "over" 3 inches here. ..with more coming ...how much ? Who knows By no means saying it’s over. Would just need such minuscule changes southward with development of the coastal to get into a band that might park over us and deliver serious fluff. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 54 minutes ago, Wetbulbs88 said: Most of your posts are looking for details and forecasts that just aren't possible at this point. You're going to have to learn from experience how these things tend to work--which in this case is that these Miller Bs indeed do tend to jump us. Things have not been going our way so far, but this is East Coast winter weather, anything can happen. I remember the second Feb 2010 blizzard came out of absolutely nowhere. If the coastal's precip shield is wider than expected, if the Low stalls farther south and west, etc. etc. Just have to wait and see. Listen, again...all I wanted to know was what could cause what. What made snow more or less likely in this setup. I knew about what Miller B's tend to do...maybe I should've asked more why this one would be different from previous Miller B fails than why it would work. Oh but that's right...I guess that's too detailed a question to ask on here, smh I'm afraid to ask anymore questions now...apparently I've been obnoxious. Not sure why I'm being singled out when there are far worse posters than me on here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fourseasons Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Looking out the window, I could probably put on my hockey skates and visit my building's parking lot. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 7 minutes ago, wxtrix said: also the obsessive reliance on snowfall maps instead of looking at pressure/thickness charts, vorticity, and winds is what drives the endless boring meltdowns here. This Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 20 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Root for the best fronto right over my head. I'll root with you if you'd like. Done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 This storm is still far from organized. We have a long way to go. We were never going to be in the jackpot but surprises are in store for some people on this sub. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 12 minutes ago, wxtrix said: also the obsessive reliance on snowfall maps instead of looking at pressure/thickness charts, vorticity, and winds is what drives the endless boring meltdowns here. I have grown to dislike snowfall maps...especially outside of maybe Day 3 or so...bad for the snow weenie psyche, lol Btw I did NOT get hung up on those by any stretch (when it showed a foot here I only half believed it then). But I, as a weather layperson, do find the pressure/thickness charts, vorticity, and other more complex maps harder to understand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Just now, losetoa6 said: Damn...gfs came wayy west with the heavies . Was eastern Pa now puts down 20+ inches literally 10 Miles over the Pa line ne of Parkton near i83. ...and near Hanover, Pa Nice shift Absolutely. The precip shield was less favorable but that means nothing to me now. The low is far more tucked. This should be interesting. I think my area is probably going to get fringed but you might be in a better spot. In general, Baltimore and NE should definitely be interested by now. Gotta be prepared to wait out these lulls while the real thing gets its act together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 4 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Damn...gfs came wayy west with the heavies . Was eastern Pa now puts down 20+ inches literally 10 Miles over the Pa line ne of Parkton near i83. ...and near Hanover, Pa Nice shift Yeah that was a good shift for us. Mappy close to the big stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Demeter Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 This is the type of storm I love tracking. Yes, I’m disappointed I didn’t get dumped on...but man, it’s beautiful to watch develop. They are also so unpredictable keeps you guessing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Some rather extreme looking solutions on RGEM and GFS 18z, makes me think this storm may join the elite memorable storm category but probably more for what it does in PA than any other state, however NJ, MD and NY could have some of the historical mentions. Each run seems to drop the central pressures (at comparable times) a couple of mbs. Very interesting to watch this unfold (and let's face it almost 0% of this storm has actually happened yet). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Just had to mute Tombo on twitter. I just...I can't see the glee. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Just now, losetoa6 said: DC on the herpderp I’m mobile, about to make the drive back up our way. Pic please? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Just now, wxtrix said: there are tons of online resources. go forth and educate yourself. Better to take a class so you can ask questions...I'd be bugging the more knowledgeable posters here even more, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Just now, losetoa6 said: DC on the herpderp Normally I like the Canadian models, but they lost all my trust with this storm after yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Just now, losetoa6 said: DC on the herpderp I'm sorry but Canada is disqualified for this storm and needs to sit in timeout! Lol 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Regardless of how much snow anyone got, it was very pretty and quite peaceful. Here are a couple of photos I took today, all black-and-white (snow just somehow facilitates itself well to black/white!!)... 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Total wine had a $3 wine stand so of course I partook. Drinking it now and...yeah, it was priced right. 3 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillbilly Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 The storm thread has become hard to follow. So is this second part not going to pan out for those North of Balt (below Mason Dixon) as well? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Wwooow got trolled so hard. They said just a few hours ago: Snow days will still happen during virtual. 5 minutes ago: Class tomorrow everyone! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Just now, ForestHillbilly said: The storm thread has become hard to follow. So is this second part not going to pan out for those North of Balt (below Mason Dixon) as well? I haven’t been paying attention, but I don’t know if anyone is sure enough to provide an answer for that. It might just be something that will reveal itself once it happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 I see you Herp derp!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Just now, WxWatcher007 said: I love those. I've harped on it before but with everything that has happened in the last year, it's good to disconnect, get outside, and just enjoy the beauty that is accessible to us. One of my favorite pictures comes from a tough time...I was just walking along a quiet road when I saw this. I think about it every so often. Thank you so much! And that picture you shared is awesome! Yes, as soul-crushing as this past year has been in many ways, getting out and realizing there is still beauty in the world helps. I've perhaps taken more photos in the last year than in any other year, to be honest. It's a hobby of mine to be sure, but with everything else going on now, it's also an escape where I look for things to photograph. Also has the added effect of helping me improve my technique and vision in that regard, too, LOL! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 We got the herp and graf on our side. Sounds dirty. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 5 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: I see you Herp derp!! Just now, snowfan said: We got the herp and graf on our side. Sounds dirty. Just be sure to avoid HRDPS-ies Simplex 2 when looking at that model!! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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