mappy Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 1 minute ago, nj2va said: The guy lives in ME so take it with a grain of salt. Jack? He’s a pretty smart dude, but yeah he is very NE focused Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 15 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Not being a wise guy here—what’s your bar for this storm? I know you're not asking me, but I want 8" on the ground when the snow stops. That includes compaction from the frizzle. Too high? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 If it goes north then trixies map will have accuracy issues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, nw baltimore wx said: I know you're not asking me, but I want 8" on the ground when the snow stops. That includes compaction from the frizzle. Too high? Given the trends I’d say you have a better chance of that than me. 8” for me seems to be the unicorn now. Now if I get 2” WAA because it dries up and miss the “tucked” low then I’ll root for my friends and get on with life. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 4 minutes ago, mappy said: Jack? He’s a pretty smart dude, but yeah he is very NE focused Yeah, I’m not on Twitter so never heard of the guy. I’m sure he’s smart but posting a NE’s met reaction to something ::shrug:: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 4 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Yup. Went to Millersville with him. Is he a big runner? That name sound familiar from my "running" days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 6 minutes ago, nj2va said: Yeah, I’m not on Twitter so never heard of the guy. I’m sure he’s smart but posting a NE’s met reaction to something ::shrug:: I agree not sure his analysis really helps us in any way. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Off to cut some snow on the slopes at Canaan. You guys bring this home today. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 14 minutes ago, H2O said: Given the trends I’d say you have a better chance of that than me. 8” for me seems to be the unicorn now. Now if I get 2” WAA because it dries up and miss the “tucked” low then I’ll root for my friends and get on with life. There was a storm back in February 2005, I think, where I got into the backside for about 4 hours here and it was sick. I wish I had a better memory for events like some of the savants on here, but then I'd have a healthy liver. But I'd love a few hours of that again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Off to cut some snow on the slopes at Canaan. You guys bring this home today. Have fun!! Stop by and say hello to @jonjon! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 I still like 5-8 from EZF north through DC. Then 6-10 from the usually suspects west of the fall line up through Northern Md. not that anyone cares what I think haha. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 At the Safeway this morning at Bradlee Center on King/Quaker in Alexandria. Lol @leesburg 04 @Chris78 1 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 50 minutes ago, mattie g said: But really I’m just embarrassed that I’ve been telling friends and family to expect 7-14” over two days. After all we've been through over the last 15-20 years on the forums, you should know to never predict more than 6" until 8" is on the ground and "radar looks great" 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 I don’t like the new NAM setting of “depress everyone at the start of a suite” 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fourseasons Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 1 minute ago, nj2va said: At the Safeway this morning at Bradlee Center on King/Quaker in Alexandria. Lol @leesburg 04 @Chris78 You may be stuck at home for two days!!!! (I'm familiar with that Safeway) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Figures I'd jump back in during a major event with a side order of forum divider. If 12z suite continues I'll spend my day making fliers and start gerrymandering and drawing new districts. Sorry mappy and psu. I'm only loyal to moco-hoco deathbands 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Figures I'd jump back in during a major event with a side order of forum divider. If 12z suite continues I'll spend my day making fliers and start gerrymandering and drawing new districts. Sorry mappy and psu. I'm only loyal to moco-hoco deathbands No need to apologize. Snow is very much an imby thing, I get it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Hate to say it, but hopefully the NAM’s aren’t on to something. That would be a pretty classic Miller B event for the sub-forum. 40N cash and south is meh. I still like a general 4-8” with local 10” to the north and east of I-83, but the monster totals are likely PA/NJ with this one right now. You NEED the Nam to adjust. It might not be the best for UL handling, but when it’s consistent, it’s a red flag. Was like that in 2016, 2017, 2019, and the last bigger event. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Hoping the next few cycles can settle on a solution for the coastal. It's my call whether or not to open up for business in Winchester Monday morning. And then communicate that decision to ~25 people at some point Sunday afternoon. If the bulk of the accumulation happens Sunday, and Monday morning through 5:00 p.m. looks like nothing more than snow showers, we can operate. Worst case though is if my home 35 miles north stays in the comma head all day on Monday and I'm at work missing it. I've seen several models showing just that scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
09-10 analogy Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 1 hour ago, snowfan said: This group gets greedy on the whole. Always has been. Promise me the NAM front end snow and I’ll ignore the CCB. I’d rather be assured of 4-6” than run the risk of a suppressed or washed out WAA AND miss the CCB. Shrug. It's easy to get greedy with something you get for free ... well, except for paying for the Internet connection that allows you to see the latest trends in models breaking your heart and teaching you why it's not good to get greedy with something -- snow -- you're ostensibly getting for free. I think there's a tautology in there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 8 minutes ago, mappy said: No need to apologize. Snow is very much an imby thing, I get it. The good thing is we only get a good storm every 3-5 years now so the topic isnt nearly as heated as it was when it used to snow here without picking the right mega millions #s 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 BRB, having some alone time with the RGEM. Then drenching some poutine in maple syrup and getting silly. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 28 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: After all we've been through over the last 15-20 years on the forums, you should know to never predict more than 6" until 8" is on the ground and "radar looks great" True...I’m also embarrassed for myself. Good to see you back, Chill! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 I am going with the RGEM model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 9 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: Hate to say it, but hopefully the NAM’s aren’t on to something. That would be a pretty classic Miller B event for the sub-forum. 40N cash and south is meh. I still like a general 4-8” with local 10” to the north and east of I-83, but the monster totals are likely PA/NJ with this one right now. You NEED the Nam to adjust. It might not be the best for UL handling, but when it’s consistent, it’s a red flag. Was like that in 2016, 2017, 2019, and the last bigger event. . So what your saying is models are adjusting toward the most common and typical outcome and not hitting a gut shot straight on the river? Who could have ever seen this coming? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, mattie g said: True...I’m also embarrassed for myself. Good to see you back, Chill! Obviously my circle drills me every event too and I've eaten plenty of fried crow sandwhiches. Now I say it the same way. "Dont be mad if we get totally screwed but IF things break right we could get x amount". Then I'll add my personal level of optimism/pessimism. Always gives you an escape hatch and when we get screwed you can tell your circle to STFU because you warned them. Experienced weenies play this game like chess. Noob weenies play it like crazy 8s and barrel full of monkeys. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Wife and I decided to use this storm as a math lesson (graphing) for our currently homeschooled 2nd grader. She and I will measure the snow at regular intervals, then plot them on a graph. After that, I’ll show her how to do it in Excel, which she’s excited about! p But I guess if we don’t get all terribly much snow, we’ll just plot at a 1/4” scale. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Well the RGEM just threw a wrench in my plans. If I missed that storm... not sure I could forgive myself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: BRB, having some alone time with the RGEM. Then drenching some poutine in maple syrup and getting silly. lol holy shit I just saw the snow map Naked poutine and maple syrup time 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 So what your saying is models are adjusting toward the most common and typical outcome and not hitting a gut shot straight on the river? Who could have ever seen this coming?The RGEM apparently doesn’t want to support American. It wants to bring poutine and Labat Blue to your backyard and have you take pictures with the moose in full flannel . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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