JakkelWx Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Even people in the Philly forum are getting nervous about drastic north shifts on the mesoscale models. Looks like they may get a taste of what its like to live in the eastern shore! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 1 minute ago, H2O said: Pepperidge farms remembers when I told PSU we don’t need amped and tucked to get good snows area wide. And I was told “no! We do! Look at all the past big dogs! You even NEED to mix to get me, er, us a big snow!!!” But what do I know How dare you want to stay blue on precip maps. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 How do the off hours euro runs score in comparison to the parent running at 0 and 12Z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 This is when you get up, check things, see how it goes and realize there isn’t shit you can do about it so might as well go do something fun. it looks like it will snow. Not tons but some. 4” is now my bar. Hope it happens and I hope everyone except hypo gets good snow 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, snowfan said: How do the off hours euro runs score in comparison to the parent running at 0 and 12Z? I’m sure they do fine. They use some old data but also ingest current obs. They aren’t as useless as they used to be. Can’t use that old off run criticism much now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 If only the 6z euro run was 0z..Mood would be better 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Confidence definitely did not change overnight. Bummer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just appreciate and enjoy whatever happens. Who cares? Seriously. Everyone is getting snow. Whether it's 6 or 16 in. Enjoy it. Cash in on the daytime WAA then see what evolves. You got this! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 You would think all of the philosophers in the storm thread would be more creative with their screen names 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 This group gets greedy on the whole. Always has been. Promise me the NAM front end snow and I’ll ignore the CCB. I’d rather be assured of 4-6” than run the risk of a suppressed or washed out WAA AND miss the CCB. Shrug. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 4 minutes ago, snowfan said: This group gets greedy on the whole. Always has been. Promise me the NAM front end snow and I’ll ignore the CCB. I’d rather be assured of 4-6” than run the risk of a suppressed or washed out WAA AND miss the CCB. Shrug. Just wait until that ccb band is 10 miles north of your house where they are getting 18" while you see peaks of sun. That 4-6 followed by rain is fun I guess. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 7 hours ago, Quixotic1 said: Somebody send me some snow. Y’all know who you are. I’ll do my best, friend! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, dailylurker said: Just wait until that ccb band is 10 miles north of your house where they are getting 18" while you see peaks of sun. Enjoy that 4-6 followed by rain is fun I guess. Lol. Man, I’ll bet you’re a hoot at parties! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, nw baltimore wx said: Lol. Man, I’ll bet you’re a hoot at parties! I'm the guy that just smokes weed while everyone gets drunk and acts a fool lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 1 minute ago, dailylurker said: Just wait until that ccb band is 10 miles north of your house where they are getting 18" while you see peaks of sun. That 4-6 followed by rain is fun I guess. That's a scenario I'm not too worried about to be honest. I would think a dry slot is more likely than rain. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, snowfan said: That's a scenario I'm not too worried about to be honest. I would think a dry slot is more likely than rain. Honestly that's what I think too. I'd be elated with 6" as long as it isn't nuked by 40 degree rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Welp, at the moment I’m packing for Cville. Too many shifts in the models and I think I want the near-assured WAA thump. 12z has two hours to change my mind. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 I’ll say it again...but I won’t pretend to be unmoved by this thing increasingly looking to leave me with relative scraps. I won’t personally be thrilled to see 4” or just appreciate what falls. I won’t whine and cry about it, but by the same token I can be kinda pissed off about how it’s all turned out. I’ll go about my day tomorrow, enjoy the snow with the kids, and try to look at the radar while folks north of us get smoked. Then I’ll move on to tracking the next fail with the rest of you idiots. 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amorphous Iodine Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Snow greed is snoooooooow good. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Looks good still for me. I’m in chips fall where they do mode now, let’s just get the party started 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, mappy said: Looks good still for me. I’m in chips fall where they do mode now, let’s just get the party started Yeah at the risk of being attacked id say it looks good for most of us in here. It’s gonna snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said: Not being a wise guy here—what’s your bar for this storm? No less than 66.67% of what those who get smoked get. So if the general max (not including lollies) is 20”, then like 12-13”. I have an issue with “losing.” 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
real Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 In DC, I am still holding slim hopes that this ends like the Feb. 10 2010 Miller B, which formed just in time to give DC like 10 inches from the coastal. But i recall that storm was painful for this those who lived in Northern Virginia. So for them, I would be especially annoyed right now that so many on here seemed to root for/suggest that coastal storm was our only hope to really cash in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 But really I’m just embarrassed that I’ve been telling friends and family to expect 7-14” over two days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Data OBS over the central US says that there are higher heights than expected. Great. More NW trends, and this will end up exactly how the December storm ended. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amorphous Iodine Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Snow greed My greed as the wind blows My greed as the snow grows Snow greed to follow your heart Live greed And beauty surrounds you The world still astounds you Each time you look at a storm Stay greed Where no runs divide you You're greed as a roaring tide so there's no need to hide Born greed And life is worth living But only worth living Cos you're born greed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 24 minutes ago, snowfan said: This group gets greedy on the whole. Always has been. Promise me the NAM front end snow and I’ll ignore the CCB. I’d rather be assured of 4-6” than run the risk of a suppressed or washed out WAA AND miss the CCB. Shrug. This has been my philosophy too. If I get 5” tomorrow from the WAA, I’d be happy. CCB is a bonus. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 3 minutes ago, JakkelWx said: Data OBS over the central US says that there are higher heights than expected. Great. More NW trends, and this will end up exactly how the December storm ended. The guy lives in ME so take it with a grain of salt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 I get the nervousness about the CCB given the model trends, and the long history of Miller Bs in our region. As many of you are saying, at least there's solid consensus of 3-5, maybe 3-6" of WAA snow before the changeover to light sleet or dry slot FZDZ. But I also remember the 2nd phase (day 2) of 3-5" during our last significant winter storm (January 2019). We were all "pleasantly surprised" to be getting some CCB love. But should any additional snow on Monday come as a surprise when some pieces of guidance (GEM and EC) continue to show some CCB love down this way? Especially the EC, which led the way with this event to begin with in the medium range? Still optimistic that we can get more than just marginal warning event snows, at least here in the eastern burbs/BWI region. But as always, will take what we get, especially this winter. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
haudidoody Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Nothing unexpected from this storm with a B-like more northerly evolution... we've all seen it before, despite the concern expressed by neighbors to the north who live in different climates. My only regret this year is not buying an epic pass so I could enjoy some real snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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