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January Banter 2021


Eskimo Joe
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Just now, nj2va said:

God save the queen!  

Although some people swear by the UK, I never think its a good model lol

But it’s #2 at 500!  Can’t say I’ve ever said to myself after a storm...wow the Ukie sure nailed that one.

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Definitely banter, but I'm stressing over temps IMBY basically not dropping at all tonight due to nagging cloud cover, which may lead to temps being a little warmer than expected tomorrow and so on and so forth. A couple degrees could make a huge difference yada yada 

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5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

It sounds counter intuitive but it’s a complicated setup. The suppressive flow is relaxing. As it does eventually the coastal storm will amplify, phase and get captured. Once that it will stall and tuck and where that happens to the NW is where the heavy snow will develop. Illustrated below by the ggem. 
E5A60B00-840A-425E-B170-43E397294755.thumb.jpeg.78273d88f15b862e8b7ff372402e25b6.jpeg

the capture/tuck was perfect there for DC northeast.  The heavy snow is banding in the deformation axis where there is the convergence of winds and sheer at different levels. Look at how the winds ahead of the h5 h85 and surface levels all converge on that zone. Additionally you have moisture transport into that zone from the east. So you add moisture, instability and lift from convergence and that death band is what you get!  
 

But one issue on some guidance is the h5 opens up as it presses up against the shear from that suppression and because of that the transfer process is delayed and so the low doesn’t phase and capture until further northeast up the coast?

I give you the NAM

0E300A43-53B1-424C-A8BD-D2C50C860C47.thumb.jpeg.dd7484fb68764e32a553eb821ce3fabf.jpeg

same scenario but the low is further northeast at the same time AND it never really got its act together and synced at at all levels like the rgem/ggem did.  The result is the ensuing snow bands set up north. But yes suppression had a part in that.  It’s delicate though. The suppression is easing. If it eased too soon the primary could hang on too long. If it suppressed initially we lose some of the WAA wave then the coastal front could be further southeast and the secondary will develop further ots. It’s a tricky balance. Miller Bs are a pain in the a$$ compared to muller As to pin down. If this was a juiced up gulf low we probably would have a better idea how it’s going to go by now. But guidance has a notoriously difficult time with transfers and phases. I’ll never forget how EVERY model was giving be a 6-10” snow from the CCB in early March 2018 only about 12 hours out and then the whole thing shifted northeast and I didn’t get a flake from the coastal. On the other hand a similar storm in Feb 1996 was supposed to hit NJ and crushed DC with no warning.   I never count on a ccb from a miller b secondary until it’s snowing from it. 

 

tumblr_o16n2kBlpX1ta3qyvo1_1280.jpg

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lol this guy must be new here

2 minutes ago, CavalierHoo said:

Why such a passive aggressive approach to this guy for the second time tonight?  The UKMET is further south and lower in totals than most models.  I'm sure you know this.  Can't people post their opinions in this thread without a douchy comment?  Practically half of the posts in this thread are about IMBY.  Seems like the regulars get away with this.....regularly, without any gruff.  Lighten up dude.  Enjoy the snow. 

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