Kmlwx Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, North Balti Zen said: I kinda had my hopes set on 6-10. So, yeah, trending toward 3-6 if we get lucky on the backside is kinda sucky. I don't think anyone is arguing that it isn't disappointing. But there's a big difference in being all bummed about it and enjoying a nice snowfall. Not everything can be a MECS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flsch22 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, North Balti Zen said: I kinda had my hopes set on 6-10. So, yeah, trending toward 3-6 if we get lucky on the backside is kinda sucky. me too, I would never complain about 3-6 but worried this is now headed towards a complete Miller B screw job where we get an inch and then watch clouds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 @osfan24 - You doing okay this year? I might be wrong but I had memories of you being a really balanced poster in the past. We're all itching for a big storm. I think you and I will do okay in this one for a grass covering, shovelable snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, Kmlwx said: The red taggers made a valid, and well backed up point. But they aren't saying it's a "next" storm. 3-6 would be my largest storm in several years. The amount of folks acting like they will not be at all satisfied with a 3-6er and signs of a decent long term pattern into February is kind of comical. I get it - we all want to be in the lake effect areas. We aren't. It is what it is. We missed the surprise storm in January 2018 up this way for the most part - the foot totals west of DC out to Leesburg were four inches up here as the snow hit a wall at 695 and did not really punch in. I have been hoping/expecting that this would break the no warning level snows drought for Balt City that stretches to January 2016. Having to calibrate to "it really might not do that" is a blow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 5 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: I think the comparisons to the earlier depictions at H5 and such are valid. But the people "requiring" 2ft to be happy are treading very close to become Ji clones. We only need one Ji. He has his schtick and it's his. We don't need 30 other Ji's. It's gonna snow - you might not have 40ft drifts, but your grass will likely be fully covered, and if you enjoy shoveling, sledding, walking in the snow you will be very happy. Will be biggest snowfall in several years for many people. If that depresses you, might be time to take a step back from the computer and go spend some time painting or something. No we don't. Seriously...we don't. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, North Balti Zen said: It is what it is. We missed the surprise storm in January 2018 up this way for the most part - the foot totals west of DC out to Leesburg were four inches up here as the snow hit a wall at 695 and did not really punch in. I have been hoping/expecting that this would break the no warning level snows drought for Balt City that stretches to January 2016. Having to calibrate to "it really might not do that" is a blow. Totally understand. At the heart of it we are all weather weenies on here. Trust me, I get it. 6-10 is still a really high bar to have set too far out ahead of the storm. I loved seeing those 15+ maps a few days ago, but we all know how that goes. I have even been refusing to give my friends snow maps - DC area experience has taught me over the years to play it down until absolutely necessary. 3+ was my bar even when I was seeing those golden runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 6 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: In fairness, that's a red tagger in MN Transplant and also echoed by another red tagger in ers who are leading the way on that... It's possible. but then by the same token they should give equal weight to the RGEM and show its good points since it was a good run. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flsch22 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 reminding me of a storm late Jan 2004 - Miller B - think we ended up with 2-3 inches around beltway but was supposed to be close to a foot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, mattie g said: No we don't. Seriously...we don't. We aren't going to change Ji - so we might as well just accept that Ji will be Ji. I'm not in the business of laying down absolute hate on any posters here. Sure some are more annoying than others. But ultimately most of us are after the same goal...snow and exciting weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Mods should just lock the forum for a few hours to let everyone cool down Some time away from the screens might do us all some good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 ENOUGH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 4 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: I kinda had my hopes set on 6-10. So, yeah, trending toward 3-6 if we get lucky on the backside is kinda sucky. And there's nothing wrong with thinking it's sucky. This becomes an issue (and this is a general comment, not pointed at you) when people shit up the analysis threads with lamentation and gnashing of teeth. Expression of disappointment, but all of the "woe is me" and "next" stuff makes things unreadable. Leave that stuff in here, and hopefully no one gets high and mighty and looks down on you for wanting to get that disappointment off your chest. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Part of the problem is...people went ga-ga and got sucked in on a couple of huge runs from a couple of models (granted, the Euro did it too). So everyone was all giddy for a 12-24" event with a CCB crushing, almost half-ignoring the front end WAA snows. Nailing down the details of those transfers, as has been said many a time, is tricky business around here. I almost wonder what everyone would feel like right now if we were being shown a solid warning-level WAA event but there was a consistent "meh" on the CCB part here without some of the crazy runs. I bet it would be a lot less frantic and tense. I still think the coastal development phase is a bit up in the air right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 2 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: We aren't going to change Ji - so we might as well just accept that Ji will be Ji. I'm not in the business of laying down absolute hate on any posters here. Sure some are more annoying than others. But ultimately most of us are after the same goal...snow and exciting weather. To each their own, but I hate the schtick, not the person...especially when it's gotten worse over the years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Don't forget to donate 5 dollars to the storm mode thread 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 1 minute ago, mattie g said: And there's nothing wrong with thinking it's sucky. This becomes an issue (and this is a general comment, not pointed at you) when people shit up the analysis threads with lamentation and gnashing of teeth. Expression of disappointment, but all of the "woe is me" and "next" stuff makes things unreadable. Leave that stuff in here, and hopefully no one gets high and mighty and looks down on you for wanting to get that disappointment off your chest. fwiw, I hardly ever post in the main thread when storms are imminent. Pretty much only in banter. Will stop that now too. No worries. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Over 80% of guidance gives us warning snowfall, including 3-6” of white gold from the initial WAA thump... you’d think it was going to be 45 and rainy by the reactions we’re seeing from folks in this thread. This is why I despise accumulation maps from models 60+ hours out. They set horrific expectations. Nobody should ever read those maps verbatim and think they’re seeing 40” from a Miller b in a Niña year. That’s just insanity. The same folks get burned EVERY. SINGLE. TIME by those maps. I know people are snow starved - I feel you. Trust me, and I empathize. But guys.... Let’s keep it together. Let’s make mappy’s job easier and keep this thread about meaningful discussion, analysis. We have a banter thread for a reason. I apologize if this is out of place, mappy, but there is a 70+% chance a large majority of the CWA will see warning level snowfall and the cliff diving every other post is getting a little ridiculous (and distracting us from engaging in meaningful discussion) Love you all, but let’s get a grip and get back to business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 4 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: Mods should just lock the forum for a few hours to let everyone cool down Some time away from the screens might do us all some good. Like the circuit breaker on the stock market Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, JakkelWx said: Don't forget to donate 5 dollars to the storm mode thread I'm not giving @stormtracker any money - but I'll buy him his drink of choice if we ever have a non-socially distanced get together again. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 1 minute ago, North Balti Zen said: fwiw, I hardly ever post in the main thread when storms are imminent. Pretty much only in banter. Will stop that now too. No worries. youre gonna post because its going to snow. and youre gonna love every flake you get. we are all a little emotional this morning it seems, and i get it. dont go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, stormtracker said: Like the circuit breaker on the stock market Bravo on the Storm Mode post. you asked for 5 but I added 5. check is in the mail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, jayyy said: Over 80% of guidance gives us warning snowfall, including 3-6” of white gold from the initial WAA thump... you’d think it was going to be 45 and rainy by the reactions we’re seeing from folks in this thread. This is why I despise accumulation maps from models 60+ hours out. They set horrific expectations. Nobody should ever read those maps verbatim and think they’re seeing 40” from a Miller b in a Niña year. That’s just insanity. The same folks get burned EVERY. SINGLE. TIME by those maps. I know people are snow starved - I feel you. Trust me, and I empathize. But guys.... Let’s keep it together. Let’s make mappy’s job easier and keep this thread about meaningful discussion, analysis. We have a banter thread for a reason. I apologize if this is out of place, mappy, but there is a 70+% chance a large majority of the CWA will see warning level snowfall and the cliff diving every other post is getting a little ridiculous (and distracting us from engaging in meaningful discussion) Love you all, but let’s get a grip and get back to business. youre in the right thread for this post, so i have no issues with it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, stormtracker said: Like the circuit breaker on the stock market Exactly. I'm guilty of spending way too much time on here before and during weather events. Have to say...the times in the past when the forum went down and I was forced to go do other things ended up doing me some good. Post count over 10K (and I'm even lower than a lot of people) always is a sobering wake up call to me that I'm a total weather nerd... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 16 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: I mean, sure? If we get it. Need 5" in Balt City to verify. We have not had that here since January 2016. And MN Transplant just laid down a 2-4 scenario with maybe 1-2 on the backside. That's no sure thing for verified warning criteria. And up this way, the chance of the WAA under-performing is higher than DC and southwest. How much snow did you get there in March of 2018? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TL97 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 I mean honestly we'd all be a little better off if we stopped analyzing the NAM after 60 hours, it often shows bad or very good results that aren't supported and doesn't add anything. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, CAPE said: How much snow did you get there in March of 2018? Oh, wait, March, you asked about. Let me go check. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 1 minute ago, TL97 said: I mean honestly we'd all be a little better off if we stopped analyzing the NAM after 60 hours, it often shows bad or very good results that aren't supported and doesn't add anything. but we are free to drool over the ICON snow map...that was a weenie storm warning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 6 minutes ago, JakkelWx said: Don't forget to donate 5 dollars to the storm mode thread Thats called the unofficial mod retirement fund. Applepay, Zelle and Western Union are all acceptable forms of money transfer 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 2 minutes ago, TL97 said: I mean honestly we'd all be a little better off if we stopped analyzing the NAM after 60 hours, it often shows bad or very good results that aren't supported and doesn't add anything. I'd imagine the current meltdown may have been caused more by the 0z Euro... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 7 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: fwiw, I hardly ever post in the main thread when storms are imminent. Pretty much only in banter. Will stop that now too. No worries. Bengals and WTF fans have to stick together. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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