January Banter 2021

[JakkelWx]

Haven't looked at the NC subforum model in a while.

[WxUSAF]

DT has weighed in on this weekend:

Quote

WOOF and I mean fu-king woof

 

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

25 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I lurked for a while and then started participating and yeah, it’s a lot more fun.

I also started out as a weenie and was slapped down a lot lol. Also normal. 

I guess people are here for different reasons but to me it should be fun. When you’re so high after  a D6 Euro run that literally everything else is upsetting because...D6 model runs don’t verify, that’s a problem. When you’re so jaded that you try to bring down a thread by nitpicking everything in a long range model run, that’s a problem too. 

I just wish people were more judicious in their posting. I’d have 100,000 posts if I pressed send on everything I thought. It’s ok to fall back from time to time. 

Same here.  I lurked on the old Eastern US WX Forums in winter of 2008-09, and then finally joined sometime during the great winter of 2009-10.  Then of course it became AmWX the next year.

Overall, it is fun, and more fun to actually participate!  I don't usually add a huge amount to a lot of the analysis/discussion, except to expound on a few things or maybe insert a humorous comment here and there, or ask a question.  Quite frankly, there are many others who have subscriptions and get access to far more data than I do and far more quickly, so I just sit back and read as a model is coming out.  And there are certainly more who are more knowledgeable than what I can offer, and there's no point in me repeating what they say, really.

There are certainly a few or a handful of people who tend to clutter things with downer posts or terrible analysis (not just a one-off or a few times, but consistently!) that it can get frustrating.  I generally try to keep frustration at that to myself (as well as frustration that we all feel when things end up sucking!!).  But sometimes, I do put up a post calling it out...maybe I shouldn't, but in general I try to ignore the "annoyances".  Or I'll make light of it with a little poking fun.  I also like to have fun in the Banter and Panic Room areas, those are really the places to laugh at our failures and get snarky!  Let's face it, the Reaper is an institution now (or should be institutionalized!)!! 

We all want snow.  That's why we're here rooting for yesterday's 12Z Euro to happen! LOL!  Which it won't of course, though some "form" of it might.  But damn, we need a solid area-wide event, you can sometimes cut the tension in here with a knife now after 2 years of almost nothing.

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

DT has weighed in on this weekend:

 

So...he's thinking big dog and not a chihuahua then!! 

[MacChump]

5 minutes ago, nj2va said:

DC now in the “Heavy Snow” weather hazard 

these things take me back to the MS Paint contest

 

edit: i'm struggling to take this seriously when i'm picturing metfan making it

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

1 hour ago, mattie g said:

No doubt it will. I also hope it results in five-posting, since we're at the point at which some people need the hammer dropped by a leaden hand .

This might suffice...

[yoda]

Who's move is it in your avatar @Always in Zugzwang?  If it's black's move the game is over and white wins... if its white's move... stalemate

[Maestrobjwa]

25 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The CIPS analogs have almost every HECS. What’s impressive is they are based on the gfs ensemble. So obviously their indicating the gfs is a “but off” right now. 

Then it needs to get it's but in gear

[benjammin]

Who's move is it in your avatar [mention=1508]Always in Zugzwang[/mention]?  If it's black's move the game is over and white wins... if its white's move... stalemate

Given his name then it's black to move.

Sent from my motorola edge plus using Tapatalk

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

7 minutes ago, yoda said:

Who's move is it in your avatar @Always in Zugzwang?  If it's black's move the game is over and white wins... if its white's move... stalemate

Ahhh, good question!  That's the nature of "zugzwang" (German word that essentially means "obligation to move").  Normally in chess, if it's your move you have the advantage because you then control things to varying degrees.  However, there are situations where having to move will put you in a *worse* board position that would be more advantageous to your opponent!

In the setup I have shown in the avatar...it's mutual zugzwang!  If black is to move, they cannot stop white from queening the pawn (a huge advantage!), and eventually lose.  If white is to move, they must move their king away from protecting the pawn such that black can take it, resulting in a draw...or, move their king directly behind the pawn which results in a stalemate (and thus, in either case, lose the significant advantage of potentially queening the pawn).

I contrast that with a quote I really like from the great player David Bronstein (very colorful personality in how he analyzed and described games!)..."The most powerful weapon in chess is to have the next move!"

[yoda]

1 minute ago, benjammin said:

Given his name then it's black to move.

Sent from my motorola edge plus using Tapatalk
 

I actually didn't know his name was a chess term until I looked it up.  I had never heard of that term before

[BlizzardNole]

I get a kick out of these Calif. mountain storms.  This is from near Ebbets Pass:

Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 19. Strong and damaging winds, with a south wind around 75 mph, with gusts as high as 115 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total daytime snow accumulation of 24 to 30 inches possible.

Tonight

Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 17. Strong and damaging winds, with a south wind 70 to 80 mph decreasing to 60 to 70 mph in the evening. Winds could gust as high as 115 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 22 to 28 inches possible.

Thursday

Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 22. Strong and damaging winds, with a south wind 60 to 65 mph decreasing to 50 to 55 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 100 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 16 to 22 inches possible.

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

1 minute ago, yoda said:

I actually didn't know his name was a chess term until I looked it up.  I had never heard of that term before

Gotta love those German terms...I think that comes from the early 20th century or maybe shortly before, when there were a number of famous and excellent German chess masters of the time.

[yoda]

Just now, Always in Zugzwang said:

Ahhh, good question!  That's the nature of "zugzwang" (German word that essentially means "obligation to move").  Normally in chess, if it's your move you have the advantage because you then control things to varying degrees.  However, there are situations where having to move will put you in a *worse* board position that would be more advantageous to your opponent!

In the setup I have shown in the avatar...it's mutual zugzwang!  If black is to move, they cannot stop white from queening the pawn (a huge advantage!), and eventually lose.  If white is to move, they must move their king away from protecting the pawn, resulting in a draw...or, move their king directly behind the pawn which results in a stalemate (and thus, in either case, lose the significant advantage of potentially queening the pawn).

I contrast that with a quote I really like from the great player David Bronstein (very colorful personality in how he analyzed and described games!)..."The most powerful weapon in chess is to have the next move!"

That's what I figured lol... I had just never heard the term zugzwang before in my chess playing.  Totally learned a new term today. 

I play off and on online... tbh I consider myself to be pretty good lol.  I play both types of games -- untimed or with a clock.  With a clock (I usually do 10 minutes) you will make the occasional bad move and you just have to hope your opponent doesn't see it.  My downfall in chess playing is I look to far ahead -- I end up overanalyzing the board and think 3-4 moves ahead and will often miss the obvious move I should have made earlier (i.e. putting black's king in check or doing a knight/bishop swap to open the board more) 

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

1 minute ago, BlizzardNole said:

I get a kick out of these Calif. mountain storms.  This is from near Ebbets Pass:

Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 19. Strong and damaging winds, with a south wind around 75 mph, with gusts as high as 115 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total daytime snow accumulation of 24 to 30 inches possible.

Tonight

Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 17. Strong and damaging winds, with a south wind 70 to 80 mph decreasing to 60 to 70 mph in the evening. Winds could gust as high as 115 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 22 to 28 inches possible.

Thursday

Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 22. Strong and damaging winds, with a south wind 60 to 65 mph decreasing to 50 to 55 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 100 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 16 to 22 inches possible.

Even @Ji would be happy with that...

.

.

.

...nah, who are we kidding!!! 

[aldie 22]

If this storm happens it will be the first storm that is multiple shovel worthy since my back surgery last year. My choice will be risk it or become a shut in. Who wants to be bring me Chinese food?

[yoda]

1 minute ago, leesburg 04 said:

If this storm happens it will be the first storm that is multiple shovel worthy since my back surgery last year. My choice will be risk it or become a shut in. Who wants to be bring me Chinese food?

Ji will be able to shovel for you lol

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

Just now, yoda said:

That's what I figured lol... I had just never heard the term zugzwang before in my chess playing.  Totally learned a new term today. 

I play off and on online... tbh I consider myself to be pretty good lol.  I play both types of games -- untimed or with a clock.  With a clock (I usually do 10 minutes) you will make the occasional bad move and you just have to hope your opponent doesn't see it.  My downfall in chess playing is I look to far ahead -- I end up overanalyzing the board and think 3-4 moves ahead and will often miss the obvious move I should have made earlier (i.e. putting black's king in check or doing a knight/bishop swap to open the board more) 

Yeah, it's kind of an obscure term perhaps, though it's a situation that does occur and sometimes people will use the term in that case.  The situation I show in the avatar, of course, is the extreme!!  Though I think there are actual games where both players might be in zugzwang!  The joke in the name is that sometimes when playing chess...or even just life in general...one feels like they're always in a state of zugzwang!! LOL!!

I haven't played as much lately but used to play a lot more and liked sitting down going over some of the older well-known games from some books.  Still like doing that, but don't get around to it as much as I had (but maybe I should again!).  I'm pretty decent, especially if I "get back into" playing and actually study a little.  Played a ton in high school, too, with a few other fellow chess geeks!

[yoda]

Just now, Always in Zugzwang said:

Yeah, it's kind of an obscure term perhaps, though it's a situation that does occur and sometimes people will use the term in that case.  The situation I show in the avatar, of course, is the extreme!!  Though I think there are actual games where both players might be in zugzwang!  The joke in the name is that sometimes when playing chess...or even just life in general...one feels like they're always in a state of zugzwang!! LOL!!

I haven't played as much lately but used to play a lot more and liked sitting down going over some of the older well-known games from some books.  Still like doing that, but don't get around to it as much as I had (but maybe I should again!).  I'm pretty decent, especially if I "get back into" playing and actually study a little.  Played a ton in high school, too, with a few other fellow chess geeks!

Are you on chess.com?  I haven't played on there in a while... but maybe we could get a game going?  If you want to that is  

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

Just now, yoda said:

Are you on chess.com?  I haven't played on there in a while... but maybe we could get a game going?  If you want to that is  

Haven't gotten on there but yeah, I might be up for a game when I have a chance!  Definitely consider that!!

BTW, if you're into reading about chess, I'd recommend "The Sorcerer's Apprentice" by David Bronstein.  Chess books and analysis are normally dry and dull, but this one has a lot of colorful description and wit.  And it is semi-autobiographical about Bronstein himself, he had a rather remarkable career and life in many ways, despite being under the old Soviet regime and not exactly their "favorite".

[Rhino16]

8 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said:

Even @Ji would be happy with that...

.

.

.

...nah, who are we kidding!!! 

I do feel bad for his inbox though... all those mentions every day.

[benjammin]

Gotta love those German terms...I think that comes from the early 20th century or maybe shortly before, when there were a number of famous and excellent German chess masters of the time.

Usually though it's not just a move that worsens your position but that directly leads to a loss hence my saying it's black to move.

Here's another fun German term.The zwischenzug (German: pronounced [ˈtsvɪʃənˌtsuːk] "intermediate move") is a chess tactic in which a player, instead of playing the expected move (commonly a recapture ), first interposes another move posing an immediate threat that the opponent must answer, and only then plays the expected move (Hooper & Whyld 1992

Sent from my motorola edge plus using Tapatalk

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

6 minutes ago, benjammin said:

Usually though it's not just a move that worsens your position but that directly leads to a loss hence my saying it's black to move.

Here's another fun German term.The zwischenzug (German: pronounced [ˈtsvɪʃənˌtsuːk] "intermediate move") is a chess tactic in which a player, instead of playing the expected move (commonly a recapture ), first interposes another move posing an immediate threat that the opponent must answer, and only then plays the expected move (Hooper & Whyld 1992

Sent from my motorola edge plus using Tapatalk
 

Ahh, yes!  That's another great term!!!  And a way to gain a greater advantage.

ETA:  And true about zugzwang, it can also mean a move that would immediately lead to the player making that move losing.

[WVclimo]

Looked at local climate data today and saw that the record daily snowfall at Martinsburg for 2/1 is only 2.0".  That's the lowest total of any day in January or February there.  Hopefully that record falls on Monday.

[ErinInTheSky]

C'mon GFS, you know you want to cave. Just bow down to your master.

[H2O]

1 hour ago, MacChump said:

these things take me back to the MS Paint contest

 

edit: i'm struggling to take this seriously when i'm picturing metfan making it

It doesn’t look anywhere as bad as bukakke Elmo 

[North Balti Zen]

Find you someone who loves you like the GFS loves running lows into Ohio.

[aldie 22]

So I'm curious...there is a storm happening tonight down south....do the models currently agree on what is going to happen 12 hours from now? Are we searching for something in the storm thread that just might not happen....total agreement from the models?

[Pityflakes]

Raleigh NC will end up getting more snow tonight than DC proper from this weekend's event. 

[dailylurker]

I'm surprised the euro hasn't caved to the GFS yet. The GFS is way more believable. Slop thumps to drizzle are way more common then some stalled hecs lol