Paleocene Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 19 minutes ago, nj2va said: I just realized its the control run that is being [over]analyzed. I thought it was the EPS mean or OP. Yikes. When the 12z GFS is suppressed, things will really get hairy in there. it's runnin! i'm ready to post some inaccurate analysis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 I've failed....I'm out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 40 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: I've failed....I'm out You have to let the whole 12z suite run. You’re not going anywhere Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 Dont wanna derail the long range thread but @psuhoffman has some great points. I expect this to become the new norm as we were already at a marginal latitude for snow before our climate started rapidly warming. I don’t think people will really start to care until their ski resorts have to shut down permanently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 1 hour ago, leesburg 04 said: I've failed....I'm out Maybe you could do the Euro pbp but in a funny voice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 @leesburg 04 My points are frustration at the larger picture and how much harder it's getting to get snow...not specific to this week. We may luck out still...its a really nice setup still...just need some south adjustment to the current consensus but I am also still seeing signs the coverage of snow will be much less then it should be historically given this setup. An amplifying southern wave sliding west to east under a block with an airmass that originated in the Arctic over the top...that should have a HUGE expansive WAA snow shield to its north and northeast and we shouldn't need to be sweating getting the exact perfect track to get some snow. It was already hard to get snow here...if every storm even in a really good pattern has some paltry narrow freaking area of snow it makes it even more likely we strike out even in good patterns, and you can forget it in mediocre or bad ones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 14 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: @leesburg 04 My points are frustration at the larger picture and how much harder it's getting to get snow...not specific to this week. We may luck out still...its a really nice setup still...just need some south adjustment to the current consensus but I am also still seeing signs the coverage of snow will be much less then it should be historically given this setup. An amplifying southern wave sliding west to east under a block with an airmass that originated in the Arctic over the top...that should have a HUGE expansive WAA snow shield to its north and northeast and we shouldn't need to be sweating getting the exact perfect track to get some snow. It was already hard to get snow here...if every storm even in a really good pattern has some paltry narrow freaking area of snow it makes it even more likely we strike out even in good patterns, and you can forget it in mediocre or bad ones. And you don't think this may just be unique to this particular year? Is there precedent?...Didn’t I hear talk of the cold air being bottled up in the other side of the globe a month ago? I mean, maybe this is me trying to keep some hope alive that what we're seeing is not permanent, but...Didn't we have the "bomb cyclone" just two years ago? I don't remember an absence of cold air that year (just that dang fast flow). What if something particular about this year (that's not related to the elephant in the room) caused this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 4 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: And you don't think this may just be unique to this particular year? Is there precedent?...Didn’t I hear talk of the cold air being bottled up in the other side of the globe a month ago? I mean, maybe this is me trying to keep some hope alive that what we're seeing is not permanent, but...Didn't we have the "bomb cyclone" just two years ago? I don't remember an absence of cold air that year (just that dang fast flow). What if something particular about this year (that's not related to the elephant in the room) caused this? I don’t see how we can get cold air to our north when the polar region is basically walled off by the higher heights. Than said, Canada looks to be becoming quite cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 Well I was happy that some events have started to show up on the models not only today but the last few days. I call that a win but today's 12z was pretty disappointing for the most part. Best part about today so far is that anything that could happen is still 5+ days away so things can change and probably will. I remain hopeful 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 47 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: Well I was happy that some events have started to show up on the models not only today but the last few days. I call that a win but today's 12z was pretty disappointing for the most part. Best part about today so far is that anything that could happen is still 5+ days away so things can change and probably will. I remain hopeful 5-6 days away and we still have something (s) to track. A miracle! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 Back in Arlington. It’s basically spring here compared to Deep Creek. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 3 minutes ago, nj2va said: Back in Arlington. It’s basically spring here compared to Deep Creek. Different world out there. I’ll be out there again this weekend. No falling snow but probably plenty laying around 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdhokie Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 40 minutes ago, nj2va said: Back in Arlington. It’s basically spring here compared to Deep Creek. Got another inch or so during the day then turned sunny, perfect for hiking. Basically more snow in a couple days than I've seen over the last several years back in EC. Not looking forward to my trip back on Friday. @WinterWxLuvr Pretty sure this will be sticking around for awhile! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 8 minutes ago, mdhokie said: Got another inch or so during the day then turned sunny, perfect for hiking. Basically more snow in a couple days than I've seen over the last several years back in EC. Not looking forward to my trip back on Friday. @WinterWxLuvr Pretty sure this will be sticking around for awhile! I can’t remember if this is your first winter out there or not? It really is just a different world as WinterWxLuver said above...crossing into the county from Frostburg flips the switch into winter paradise. We had friends visiting this weekend who arrived Friday afternoon during the snowfall..they were amazed at the fact that it was raining in Frostburg but the second they hit the county line, immediately changed to heavy snow. This winter has been night/day vs last winter (and much closer to a normal year). Depending how February/March goes, we could hit average there (~110” in McHenry). I’m getting close to 60” on the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deer Whisperer Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 I finally figured out why it won't snow 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 55 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Not quite my style... But THIS is!!! Musical mayhem would be my specialty! That would really give him something to fret about *ba-dum pssh* Ha, touche! As a connoisseur of puns, I appreciate this! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 I thought today was an extremely good day. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 Seems less stressful when the models don't show snow yeesh 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 15 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: Seems less stressful when the models don't show snow yeesh I just know its going to rain here when it precipitates until proven otherwise, so I don't stress at all over model runs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 4 minutes ago, CAPE said: I just know its going to rain here when it precipitates until proven otherwise, so I don't stress at all over model runs. I think a kitten just died 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FXW176 Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 Meh this pattern. Shrinky Dinks rule. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLover22 Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 5 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 18Z EPS continues to cave toward GEFS in early next week storm. 1 hour ago, Weather Will said: WB 18Z GEFS says see you in February... 11 hours ago, Weather Will said: No, but the temps are above freezing upstairs at hour 144 On 1/18/2021 at 1:57 PM, Weather Will said: WB 12Z EURO...rather it do this then rain but models are still over the place... do you enjoy giving bad news? there are many other examples. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 Good news Will making his rounds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 Ok my next artificial deadline before giving up on the early next week storm is Saturday 12z I guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 2 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: Ok my next artificial deadline before giving up on the early next week storm is Saturday 12z I guess Can I talk you into 18z Saturday? Just to make sure 12z wasn’t a fluke. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 Lol Caps https://www.espn.com/nhl/story/_/id/30750144/nhl-fines-washington-capitals-100k-violations-covid-19-protocols Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
benjammin Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 Lol Caps https://www.espn.com/nhl/story/_/id/30750144/nhl-fines-washington-capitals-100k-violations-covid-19-protocolsAnd the Wizards have had like four straight games cancelled. Sent from my moto z3 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 Yet another instance where the models shift north and I will likely end up all rain AGAIN for the 26th. If I don't receive at least 6 inches by the 1st week of February, I am officially out of this pathetic winter. Like come on, is that too much to ask for? This winter will receive an F- if I don't get at least one snowstorm between the last week of January and the 1st week of Feb, then I don't know what else to say. What else will it take to get one? Despair on a truly epic scale. @WxWatcher007 bring out the winter despair index? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 Any of you all living in DC close enough to see the fireworks? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 4 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: Any of you all living in DC close enough to see the fireworks? Didn’t see them. heard the booms and was wondering WTF it was. Turned on the TV and saw it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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