Prestige Worldwide Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 Cold air is in place by the 23rd- this is when our window opens up hopefully we cash in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 2 minutes ago, Prestige Worldwide said: Cold air is in place by the 23rd- this is when our window opens up hopefully we cash in Both 850 and 2m are quite above normal on 23rd on 6z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 It's weird to have a long range thread and a future storms thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 The can has definitely been kicked a few times on a possible snowy pattern. We can debate how much, but it’s definitely been kicked. From range, it looked like last nights cold front would usher in legit cold air and set the table for a productive period. Well, not so much. Yes the 7th and 11th January threats were “gravy” (we thought) before a great pattern, but those both failed for different reasons then we expected. Now it does look like we will at least get some chilly air starting in another week, but that tepid chill looks too suppressive. So we may have to wait until that relaxes, at which point that tepid chill could turn back to our standard 5-10F above normal. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 31 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: The can has definitely been kicked a few times on a possible snowy pattern. We can debate how much, but it’s definitely been kicked. From range, it looked like last nights cold front would usher in legit cold air and set the table for a productive period. Well, not so much. Yes the 7th and 11th January threats were “gravy” (we thought) before a great pattern, but those both failed for different reasons then we expected. Now it does look like we will at least get some chilly air starting in another week, but that tepid chill looks too suppressive. So we may have to wait until that relaxes, at which point that tepid chill could turn back to our standard 5-10F above normal. It has, and I have bemoaned this lame ass cold front. Realistically, the models were probably too quick getting cold into the source region and moving it east from there. The upcoming cold as advertised is by no means brutal, but we don't need the vodka. We need enough of a cold push to shift the thermal boundary, and that looks realistic. Maybe that helps with keeping shortwaves more robust as they move eastward, in conjunction with a bit of relaxation with the NAO towards the end of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prestige Worldwide Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 Wake up in a great mood- come in here to read now I’m depressed. Lots of negativity - understandable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 Who will be the first to say the gfs is wrong showing snow after they complained and whined that it wasn't showing snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 6 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: Who will be the first to say the gfs is wrong showing snow after they complained and whined that it wasn't showing snow? Damn, those NCEP programmers need to get it right! IF (precip over DC) THEN preciptype = rain AND T2M = 33 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 8 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: Who will be the first to say the gfs is wrong showing snow after they complained and whined that it wasn't showing snow? Not me. My complaining was designed to force this from the GFS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 well, its about time for the euro to show absolutely no evidence of a storm at the d9/d10 window to cancel our 12z GFS optimism! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 14 hours ago, snowfan said: 2 25 inchers a year is being a little greedy Maybe we just agree that Jis idea of only 2 snowfalls a season sucks. I agree that’s greedy but I didn’t set the premise or the ratios @Ji did. A 50” winter for me is actually less above normal then a 20” winter is in DC! A 20” DC winter is equivalent to a 57” winter here. ETA: but if we aren’t going to adjust for local climo then I’m a hard no. In the last 20 years only 3 were worse then 20” so I’d take my chances lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 2 hours ago, WxUSAF said: Damn, those NCEP programmers need to get it right! IF (precip over DC) THEN preciptype = rain AND T2M = 33 Are you coding on a Commodore 64? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 4 hours ago, WxUSAF said: The can has definitely been kicked a few times on a possible snowy pattern. We can debate how much, but it’s definitely been kicked. From range, it looked like last nights cold front would usher in legit cold air and set the table for a productive period. Well, not so much. Yes the 7th and 11th January threats were “gravy” (we thought) before a great pattern, but those both failed for different reasons then we expected. Now it does look like we will at least get some chilly air starting in another week, but that tepid chill looks too suppressive. So we may have to wait until that relaxes, at which point that tepid chill could turn back to our standard 5-10F above normal. 3 hours ago, CAPE said: It has, and I have bemoaned this lame ass cold front. Realistically, the models were probably too quick getting cold into the source region and moving it east from there. The upcoming cold as advertised is by no means brutal, but we don't need the vodka. We need enough of a cold push to shift the thermal boundary, and that looks realistic. Maybe that helps with keeping shortwaves more robust as they move eastward, in conjunction with a bit of relaxation with the NAO towards the end of the month. This next cold shot is different because the epo finally goes negative and injects some arctic air. Guidance continually tried to cool the N American profile at range and in defense that’s what historically SHOULD happen this time of year. Additionally even when the pattern in the pacific reverses and the coldest air shifts to N Amer it’s pathetic. Frankly the only place that seems to sustain truly arctic cold air masses lately regardless of the pattern is Siberia. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 Could someone please clean up the number of threads we have discussing the same topic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 15 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: Could someone please clean up the number of threads we have discussing the same topic. No 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
benjammin Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 Could someone please clean up the number of threads we have discussing the same topic.I'm sure someone "could." Sent from my motorola edge plus using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 Drinking one of these. Pretty darn good. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 Snowflakes at Lambeau 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 8 minutes ago, frd said: GFS does not have the proper physics to handle this upcoming complex weather evolution. Like CAPE said, the model will eventually react to the block and the press of the baroclinic zone. It'll be showing 2 feet of snow area wide by Wednesday's 12z runs. Book it. This is our storm until it isnt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 24 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: @CAPEThere was a dusting on my Grand National this morning Man, that’s a pretty car. It looks fake, almost like a model. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 Ugh that drive ended with a whimper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prestige Worldwide Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 Ugh missed fg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 F#$%ing wind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 Ravens need a new kicker 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 Greg Roman is a sage in the run game, but is inept with the passing game, smh Run master, pass gasser! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 Why the heck did we burn two timeouts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 Ravens need a new punter 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 Just now, H2O said: Ravens need a new punter Wait you're a WFT fan right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 That was almost a highlight...had Dobbins not dropped it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 Just now, Maestrobjwa said: Wait you're a WFT fan right? Yup. But tonight I’m a Bills fan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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