nj2va Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 HRRR also did really well (at least in Deep Creek) with the December storm. In other upslope events, has done well too this winter. I can’t comment on the long range HRRR though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 Just an observation: The 0z HRRR actually backs surface winds to southeasterly during the day on Saturday as it develops a surface trough/low in the mountains that moves east across the region during the afternoon/evening. This probably enhanced the convection this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 Just now, losetoa6 said: Hrrr has done well overall this season. I was talking to @mitchnickabout this last week . Just wait til we’re staring down our region-wide 2’ HECS in early February and we’re able to see the pretty snow totals over us each hour. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 9 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: It's done well this season actually. In that case you got the hour 44 panel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GramaxRefugee Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 Today's obs... ...eighth straight morning with low in the 20s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 33 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Backed up by the 3k and @high risk LOL I was serious. I wanted to see the panel one hour before the one you posted 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 4 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Lol. Here's 44 Awesome thanks. We have time to fill in those gaps with more of that dark blue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 2 hours ago, losetoa6 said: Backed up by the 3k and @high risk You're too kind. Easy to make a call on this when you have a strong upper trough axis swinging through with lapse rates like these: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 Beautiful sunrise and very frosty. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 1 hour ago, nw baltimore wx said: Beautiful sunrise and very frosty. It was gorgeous watching it in my rearview mirror as I was on 70 W heading to Deep Creek. Just got here...31 degrees and still basically have full snow cover which was surprising given the lack of fresh snow here over the last 2 weeks basically. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 1 hour ago, nj2va said: It was gorgeous watching it in my rearview mirror as I was on 70 W heading to Deep Creek. Just got here...31 degrees and still basically have full snow cover which was surprising given the lack of fresh snow here over the last 2 weeks basically. I’ll be just south of you later today. Looking forward to spending a snowy weekend over there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 Its cloudy again. East Coast NPZ will be happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 10 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: I’ll be just south of you later today. Looking forward to spending a snowy weekend over there. Nice, at your future place in WV? You picked a great weekend to come out here....snow showers everyday from upslope and the upper level system on Sunday/Monday. 6-8” through MLK day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 9 minutes ago, nj2va said: Nice, at your future place in WV? You picked a great weekend to come out here....snow showers everyday from upslope and the upper level system on Sunday/Monday. 6-8” through MLK day. Yeah that future place that’s still working me to death LOL. But it will be fun working with a winter atmosphere outside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 12z guidance pretty much all took a pretty big step back in terms of coverage of convective rain/snow/graupel showers Saturday afternoon. It's not obvious why, but they all seemed to pick up on *something* that's hostile to the potential. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 6 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Yeah that future place that’s still working me to death LOL. But it will be fun working with a winter atmosphere outside. It’ll all be worth it when you’re able to come out, relax, and watch a 12” snow fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 4 minutes ago, high risk said: 12z guidance pretty much all took a pretty big step back in terms of coverage of convective rain/snow/graupel showers Saturday afternoon. It's not obvious why, but they all seemed to pick up on *something* that's hostile to the potential. Now this only focuses on the long range HRRR but... last nights 0z run had surface winds backing to SE for tomorrow afternoon as a surface trough/low developed and move through the region (probably helped low-level convergence). The 12z does not do that and has surface winds keeping a westerly component for the afternoon (W to SW). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jonjon Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 20 minutes ago, nj2va said: Nice, at your future place in WV? You picked a great weekend to come out here....snow showers everyday from upslope and the upper level system on Sunday/Monday. 6-8” through MLK day. I'm going to take the over on that. Hope I'm not wrong. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowchaser Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 Snowfall forecast Today - Tuesday TOTAL snowfall. Flurries are possible in DC Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 So my map from Dec is still valid for the places that always shit snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 1 minute ago, jonjon said: I'm going to take the over on that. Hope I'm not wrong. My guess is you’ll easily have over a foot through MLK (with more following on Tuesday/Wednesday) since you do even better in upslope than here. We’re here through Wednesday night and I’m thinking I’ll see 8-10” through Wednesday but upside for higher totals. Maybe I’ll head down to the brewery one day! Although I’m sure this weekend will be crowded there. Wisp already sold out of lift tickets tomorrow/Sunday (for non season pass holders). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 12 minutes ago, George BM said: Now this only focuses on the long range HRRR but... last nights 0z run had surface winds backing to SE for tomorrow afternoon as a surface trough/low developed and move through the region (probably helped low-level convergence). The 12z does not do that and has surface winds keeping a westerly component for the afternoon (W to SW). That's a good catch. It's not as blatant on the NAM3 and the Hi-Res Windows, but even the older cycles of those models clearly show a bit of a southerly component to the winds tomorrow that is absent in the 12z cycle. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris21 Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 1 minute ago, high risk said: That's a good catch. It's not as blatant on the NAM3 and the Hi-Res Windows, but even the older cycles of those models clearly show a bit of a southerly component to the winds tomorrow that is absent in the 12z cycle. Hopefully, the 18z will bring it back! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jonjon Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 17 minutes ago, nj2va said: My guess is you’ll easily have over a foot through MLK (with more following on Tuesday/Wednesday) since you do even better in upslope than here. We’re here through Wednesday night and I’m thinking I’ll see 8-10” through Wednesday but upside for higher totals. Maybe I’ll head down to the brewery one day! Although I’m sure this weekend will be crowded there. Wisp already sold out of lift tickets tomorrow/Sunday (for non season pass holders). I hope you're right! PM me if you head this way. Probably a wait to get in over the weekend, but Sunday Monday may be easier. I'm usually off the grid during weekends, I'm trying to get my next business started up here (artisanal bakery). I plan on being an all-round yeast master. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
umdterps29 Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 I am out at Deep Creek through Wednesday. Excited to see some flakes fall for the next few days. Hoping to get 6"+ by the time I head back to Baltimore. It's pretty cold out currently. Barely over 32 and breezy. I expect temps to crash when the precip rolls in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowchaser Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 Heavy sleet falling elevation 3,300 in Pocahontas West Virginia near Snowshoe. Temperature 32 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 1 hour ago, Snowchaser said: Snowfall forecast Today - Tuesday TOTAL snowfall. Flurries are possible in DC Saturday. Can you show me on that map where Romney WV is? I’ve been offered a cabin out there on a ridge of like 1000 feet. I think it’s 10-15 miles sw of town. Do any of you all know much about that spot? I know a lot of you have mountain places. Is Romney a nice town? Jon Jon, is that anywhere near you? Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris21 Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 5 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said: Can you show me on that map where Romney WV is? I’ve been offered a cabin out there on a ridge of like 1000 feet. I think it’s 10-15 miles sw of town. Do any of you all know much about that spot? I know a lot of you have mountain places. Is Romney a nice town? Jon Jon, is that anywhere near you? Thanks Romney is def not my fav spot in West Virginia. I'm sure there are nice cabins, but it is in the rainshadow area. They may average 25-28 inches of snow per year if they are lucky. 20-30 miles to the west lies dolly sods and the Allegheny Front and 150 inches of yearly snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris21 Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 2 minutes ago, Snowchaser said: I’ve never been to Romney but I’ve heard some nice things about that town. I would say 3-8” total event would be a safe bet. Elevation depending. 3” inches for lower elevations up 8” for the mountains. Id be shocked if Romney got an inch. Northwest flow snows may provide a snow shower occasionally but in Romney, a NW wind is downsloping which dries up all of the moisture deposited on the Allegheny Front. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jonjon Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 9 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said: Can you show me on that map where Romney WV is? I’ve been offered a cabin out there on a ridge of like 1000 feet. I think it’s 10-15 miles sw of town. Do any of you all know much about that spot? I know a lot of you have mountain places. Is Romney a nice town? Jon Jon, is that anywhere near you? Thanks Only been to Romney a couple of times for my sons' basketball games. Seems like a nice little town from what I could tell. Definitely not going to get much snow there, though. As mentioned they are in the shadow of the Alleghenies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now