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Significant upper middle Atlantic S/CNE mix/snow potential Jan 3+


Typhoon Tip
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39 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah the stuff in S NY and NE PA was supposed to cross SNE originally until the flow got all mucked up at the last second....but you can see how the midlevel goodies really produced back there hundreds of miles away from the surface coastal low out at sea. 

They stole our snow?

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4 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said:

Or nothing at all. We did have OES flurries off and on yesterday afternoon though. I’ll consider that a win. We wait. 

I don't think we had more than a few hundredths of an inch of precip lol. I'll take a slot when it means only missing out on an inch of snow I guess. 

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1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah the stuff in S NY and NE PA was supposed to cross SNE originally until the flow got all mucked up at the last second....but you can see how the midlevel goodies really produced back there hundreds of miles away from the surface coastal low out at sea. 

Yeah..I thought we were slated for that last night frankly.  I thought there was a decent shot we'd awake to some 4- 5" 'reach-around' gratification, to alleviate the total "bust" complexion of this ordeal but, ha!  Even that got stripped away - wow... 

I don't know, crawling Pac waves up underneath a western limbed -NAO was supposed to pay off a week ago, and frankly if faced with that again ...we'd probably be best to favor a better outcome - we would. But it just doesn't break in favor this time.  The governing players and parameters at the hemispheric scope supported more. Alas! Details got in the way.  Like, the fact that the Pac waves are too weak really. The NAO situated less than 'as ideally' as modeled days ago... nuances -

So, having seen this result this morning I'm now more inclined to go with your bust characteristic  ( I think it was you ? ) or whomever mentioned that last night. At the time I was hesitant because I was waiting out those PA/S NY returns which as I think you hinted, it's kind of odd to awaken and see that did nothing here ...  I think I see why though - 

We used to call the 'lift/RH robbing' up at UML ... part of Miller B where they carry a dark dagger that sometimes back stabs.  It's when lift/ongoing action associated with a primary comes into PA...then, the secondary takes off E of the Del Marva.  Its new lift and inflow cuts off and robs the primary ... New shield evolves associated with the secondary, and what this does in total is it 'gaps' the total event and sometimes, that gap places SNE in it. 

This at least hints as having something like this take place. Considering the 4-6" results out there, then seeing this CCB head flirting with the Cape now.

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It's when lift/ongoing action associated with a primary comes into PA...then, the secondary takes off E of the Del Marva.  Its new lift and inflow cuts off and robs the primary ... New shield evolves associated with the secondary, and what this does in total is it 'gaps' the total event and sometimes, that gap places SNE in it. 

This is a frequent occurrence in SWCT.  The new shield gets RI and EMA.

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32 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yeah..I thought we were slated for that last night frankly.  I thought there was a decent shot we'd awake to some 4- 5" 'reach-around' gratification, to alleviate the total "bust" complexion of this ordeal but, ha!  Even that got stripped away - wow... 

I don't know, crawling Pac waves up underneath a western limbed -NAO was supposed to pay off a week ago, and frankly if faced with that again ...we'd probably be best to favor a better outcome - we would. But it just doesn't break in favor this time.  The governing players and parameters at the hemispheric scope supported more. Alas! Details got in the way.  Like, the fact that the Pac waves are too weak really. The NAO situated less than 'as ideally' as modeled days ago... nuances -

So, having seen this result this morning I'm now more inclined to go with your bust characteristic  ( I think it was you ? ) or whomever mentioned that last night. At the time I was hesitant because I was waiting out those PA/S NY returns which as I think you hinted, it's kind of odd to awaken and see that did nothing here ...  I think I see why though - 

We used to call the 'lift/RH robbing' up at UML ... part of Miller B where they carry a dark dagger that sometimes back stabs.  It's when lift/ongoing action associated with a primary comes into PA...then, the secondary takes off E of the Del Marva.  Its new lift and inflow cuts off and robs the primary ... New shield evolves associated with the secondary, and what this does in total is it 'gaps' the total event and sometimes, that gap places SNE in it. 

This at least hints as having something like this take place. Considering the 4-6" results out there, then seeing this CCB head flirting with the Cape now.

It was definitely a weird storm....I was fairly bullish on widespread advisory until about 12z yesterday for reasons I had mentioned more than enough times in this thread, though maybe 00z the night before I started to have serious doubts. It obviously produced to our west and often, like you said, that can propagate eastward somewhat even when models are insisting defeat. So there was a chance we'd still get 2-4" or something. I managed 2" but I was a fairly isolated lucky spot.

When you go back and examine the upper air, it becomes noticeable on the really late runs (like inside of 24h) that the inability to pop downstream ridging actually starts to turn the lakes trough from a negative tilt to a slightly positive tilt by the time the trough axis gets to about ALB-PHL longitude....and that's usually not a good thing. It disrupts the mid-level forcing. Previous runs had been trying to maintain a little more neutral. This speaks to the lack of "curl" in the H5 heights underneath or SE of New England.

image.png.b54e27a5989dc2296848d43985227c29.png

 

 

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2 hours ago, Hoth said:

This brutal January sun angle is melting all my snow!

Is the moon angle also getting higher too?  Must be because when I woke up this morning all of my snow was already gone!  I'm sure it couldn't possibly be that I didn't get any, as I was promised days and days and days of snow. :rolleyes:

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2 hours ago, DotRat_Wx said:

We are due for bone numbing cold. No cold blasts yet this year 

Had some significantly BN days Dec 15-20, probably helping to keep the mega-band to my south. :(  
Since then 15 straight AN days with only 12/30 even close to normal.  Looks like we could be another 10-15 days of AN unless things change.  Hope we don't challenge the 46 consecutive AN days in Feb-Mar 2010.

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1 hour ago, TheSnowman said:

Did anyone ANY Snow this last night????  Snowed before I looked out my window at 8pm while watching the 4pm games, got Maybe 0.25” at Best, and that was IT!?  

lots of people did. ORH w/ 2"..a few reports in the 3.5-5" range in W CT. RI looks like its mainly under an inch though based on the reports.

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1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Anyone catch BOX totals map? Just checked FB and couldn't come across one...

Image of Stotm Total Snowfall

Public Information Statement
Spotter Reports
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
842 AM EST Mon Jan 04 2021

The following are unofficial observations taken during the past 17
hours for the storm that has been affecting our region. Appreciation
is extended to highway departments, cooperative observers, Skywarn
spotters and media for these reports. This summary also is available
on our home page at weather.gov/boston

********************STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL********************

LOCATION          STORM TOTAL     TIME/DATE   COMMENTS                   
                     SNOWFALL           OF 
                     /INCHES/   MEASUREMENT

CONNECTICUT

...Hartford County...
   Burlington             3.5   519 AM  1/04  Trained Spotter         
   Collinsville           3.3   752 AM  1/04  General Public          
   Bradley AP             1.7  1200 AM  1/04  CWOP                    
   East Farmington Heig   1.5   829 AM  1/04  Trained Spotter         

...Tolland County...
   Staffordville          0.6   555 AM  1/04  Co-Op Observer          

...Windham County...
   Pomfret                1.2   708 AM  1/04  Trained Spotter         
   East Killingly         1.2   509 AM  1/04  NONE                    
   Moosup                 1.0   632 AM  1/04  Trained Spotter         

MASSACHUSETTS

...Essex County...
   Saugus                 1.0   952 PM  1/03  Trained Spotter         

...Franklin County...
   Heath                  1.3   824 AM  1/04  Ham Radio               
   Greenfield             0.5   902 PM  1/03  Trained Spotter         

...Hampden County...
   Longmeadow             2.0  1138 PM  1/03  Trained Spotter         
   Westfield              1.3   933 PM  1/03  CWO                     
   West Springfield       1.0   821 PM  1/03  Ham Radio               
   Agawam                 1.0  1037 PM  1/03  Ham Radio               

...Hampshire County...
   Southampton            2.0   619 AM  1/04  Broadcast Media         
   Huntington             2.0   628 AM  1/04  Trained Spotter         
   Goshen                 1.5   536 AM  1/04  Broadcast Media         
   Easthampton            1.3  1035 PM  1/03  Ham Radio               
   North Amherst          1.1   817 AM  1/04  Trained Spotter         

...Middlesex County...
   Lexington              2.0   800 AM  1/04  General Public          
   Ashland                1.5   730 AM  1/04  Trained Spotter         
   Hopkinton              1.5   446 AM  1/04  Trained Spotter         
   Carlisle               0.9   536 AM  1/04  General Public          
   Littleton              0.9   615 AM  1/04  Trained Spotter         

...Norfolk County...
   Medway                 1.9   919 PM  1/03  Ham Radio               
   Millis                 1.2  1030 PM  1/03  Trained Spotter         

...Worcester County...
   Grafton                1.8  1200 AM  1/04  Trained Spotter         
   Westborough            1.7   949 PM  1/03  NWS Employee            
   Milford                1.6   932 PM  1/03  Trained Spotter         
   Leominster             1.5  1200 AM  1/04  Public                  
   Boylston               1.3  1041 PM  1/03  Trained Spotter         
   auburn                 1.1   758 AM  1/04  Trained Spotter         
   Worcester AP           1.1  1143 PM  1/03  Airport                 
   Worcester              1.0   910 PM  1/03  CWO                     
   Holden                 1.0   841 PM  1/03  Ham Radio               
   Spencer                1.0   815 AM  1/04  Trained Spotter         
   Shrewsbury             0.8   845 PM  1/03  NWS Employee            
   Fitchburg              0.8   754 PM  1/03  Ham Radio               
   Fitchburg Coop         0.8   801 PM  1/03  Co-Op Observer          
   Lunenburg              0.7   832 AM  1/04  Ham Radio               

RHODE ISLAND

...Kent County...
   West Warwick           0.7   726 AM  1/04  Trained Spotter         

...Providence County...
   Cumberland             0.5   800 PM  1/03  NWS Employee            
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1 hour ago, Greg said:

Image of Stotm Total Snowfall


Public Information Statement
Spotter Reports
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
842 AM EST Mon Jan 04 2021

The following are unofficial observations taken during the past 17
hours for the storm that has been affecting our region. Appreciation
is extended to highway departments, cooperative observers, Skywarn
spotters and media for these reports. This summary also is available
on our home page at weather.gov/boston

********************STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL********************

LOCATION          STORM TOTAL     TIME/DATE   COMMENTS                   
                     SNOWFALL           OF 
                     /INCHES/   MEASUREMENT

CONNECTICUT

...Hartford County...
   Burlington             3.5   519 AM  1/04  Trained Spotter         
   Collinsville           3.3   752 AM  1/04  General Public          
   Bradley AP             1.7  1200 AM  1/04  CWOP                    
   East Farmington Heig   1.5   829 AM  1/04  Trained Spotter         

...Tolland County...
   Staffordville          0.6   555 AM  1/04  Co-Op Observer          

...Windham County...
   Pomfret                1.2   708 AM  1/04  Trained Spotter         
   East Killingly         1.2   509 AM  1/04  NONE                    
   Moosup                 1.0   632 AM  1/04  Trained Spotter         

MASSACHUSETTS

...Essex County...
   Saugus                 1.0   952 PM  1/03  Trained Spotter         

...Franklin County...
   Heath                  1.3   824 AM  1/04  Ham Radio               
   Greenfield             0.5   902 PM  1/03  Trained Spotter         

...Hampden County...
   Longmeadow             2.0  1138 PM  1/03  Trained Spotter         
   Westfield              1.3   933 PM  1/03  CWO                     
   West Springfield       1.0   821 PM  1/03  Ham Radio               
   Agawam                 1.0  1037 PM  1/03  Ham Radio               

...Hampshire County...
   Southampton            2.0   619 AM  1/04  Broadcast Media         
   Huntington             2.0   628 AM  1/04  Trained Spotter         
   Goshen                 1.5   536 AM  1/04  Broadcast Media         
   Easthampton            1.3  1035 PM  1/03  Ham Radio               
   North Amherst          1.1   817 AM  1/04  Trained Spotter         

...Middlesex County...
   Lexington              2.0   800 AM  1/04  General Public          
   Ashland                1.5   730 AM  1/04  Trained Spotter         
   Hopkinton              1.5   446 AM  1/04  Trained Spotter         
   Carlisle               0.9   536 AM  1/04  General Public          
   Littleton              0.9   615 AM  1/04  Trained Spotter         

...Norfolk County...
   Medway                 1.9   919 PM  1/03  Ham Radio               
   Millis                 1.2  1030 PM  1/03  Trained Spotter         

...Worcester County...
   Grafton                1.8  1200 AM  1/04  Trained Spotter         
   Westborough            1.7   949 PM  1/03  NWS Employee            
   Milford                1.6   932 PM  1/03  Trained Spotter         
   Leominster             1.5  1200 AM  1/04  Public                  
   Boylston               1.3  1041 PM  1/03  Trained Spotter         
   auburn                 1.1   758 AM  1/04  Trained Spotter         
   Worcester AP           1.1  1143 PM  1/03  Airport                 
   Worcester              1.0   910 PM  1/03  CWO                     
   Holden                 1.0   841 PM  1/03  Ham Radio               
   Spencer                1.0   815 AM  1/04  Trained Spotter         
   Shrewsbury             0.8   845 PM  1/03  NWS Employee            
   Fitchburg              0.8   754 PM  1/03  Ham Radio               
   Fitchburg Coop         0.8   801 PM  1/03  Co-Op Observer          
   Lunenburg              0.7   832 AM  1/04  Ham Radio               

RHODE ISLAND

...Kent County...
   West Warwick           0.7   726 AM  1/04  Trained Spotter         

...Providence County...
   Cumberland             0.5   800 PM  1/03  NWS Employee            

Yea, saw the PNS, but not the map. Thanks!

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