Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,606
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    ArlyDude
    Newest Member
    ArlyDude
    Joined

Significant upper middle Atlantic S/CNE mix/snow potential Jan 3+


Typhoon Tip
 Share

Recommended Posts

3 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Zoom into your exact spot and click.

https://www.latlong.net

It only lets me set it on right side of decimal point to the tenth. So instead of letting do 72.39 it lets me do either 72.3 or 72.4.  Unless there’s a way to change units . I changed the units on the temp and dew but didn’t see that I was able to on lat/long

Link to comment
Share on other sites

51 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It only lets me set it on right side of decimal point to the tenth. So instead of letting do 72.39 it lets me do either 72.3 or 72.4.  Unless there’s a way to change units . I changed the units on the temp and dew but didn’t see that I was able to on lat/long

Is it more precise on the weatherlink.com settings? Tenths is pretty coarse for a map...notsomuch for the console which only uses it for sunrise/sunset times.

 

edit...I see your bulletin page, but you need to log in with an account.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

EPS looked good I thought. If you compare it to the 12z EPS, that vorticity lobe we all spoke about develops quicker as it ejects out, under SNE.

The 06z OP run has the vortmax further east too...it's going from near PIT into NE PA (and prob through SNE if we saw one more panel)....that is still Bruce Willis caution flags for the coast but it definitely brings interior SNE into play. Yesterday's 12z run was bringing that vort energy into ROC. The ULL itself is still pretty far west which leaves a reason to be cautious....but if we can start focusing that energy further SE like on that 06z run, then we'll have a shot

image.png.a0085a4476c15ce62c0a24ae2a1aee79.png

 

image.png.147b4df211a53ba9eef082c0aa0aeaf7.png

 

 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

The 06z OP run has the vortmax further east too...it's going from near PIT into NE PA (and prob through SNE if we saw one more panel)....that is still Bruce Willis caution flags for the coast but it definitely brings interior SNE into play. Yesterday's 12z run was bringing that vort energy into ROC. The ULL itself is still pretty far west which leaves a reason to be cautious....but if we can start focusing that energy further SE like on that 06z run, then we'll have a shot

image.png.a0085a4476c15ce62c0a24ae2a1aee79.png

 

image.png.147b4df211a53ba9eef082c0aa0aeaf7.png

 

 

Yeah it’s dicey here, but good to see the improvement. If it ends as some snow, I’d take it and run. Hopefully a trend there.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

34 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

EPS looked good I thought. If you compare it to the 12z EPS, that vorticity lobe we all spoke about develops quicker as it ejects out, under SNE.

Can all us Mets please begin a campaign to explain to people that the axis of the ULL is not the focus - it is the wind max flowing around it... It's just that in this case, the wind max happens to be displaced a bit SE of systemic climo for these objects .. but the vort lobe ( as you noted) flows "UNDER" SNE ...

That's the whole ballgame ... If that ends up cutting west toward ALB ( such as Will's salient observation of a limitation on this whole design...), ...yeah, we're f'ed!  Particularly because of the marginality of the atmosphere... I mean, I've seen very cold scenarios where the DPVA cuts west and we end up with a snow thump ( a..k.a. "SW flow events .. " or related -) but, so long as the ballast of S/W momentum passes SE ... the Q-G forcing and UVM cores will evolve in concert with velocity diffluence and the pressure falls under that upward vertical motion...

I keep seeing all this trashing solution because of a BUFF  Hdz nadir over BUFF ...

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Frankly it all still looks the same as it always did since this thing started emerging out of the fog of a busy buckshot of Pac waves needing to be managed during the initial stages of an onsetting -NAO... 

That's a long sentence... but that sums it.  If (as noted by others) the wind max/ dpva were to cut W..we could step down toward just an educational journey on this thing... But from where I'm sitting, this probably does what marginal/'blue snow' looks do in guidance in the mid range:   they'll look like glop/cat-paw events and then at go time, the guidance and now-cast reset the whole thing to -1 or 0 isothermal sounding in the 1300 m depth with a 700 mb low either garbage closed, or, more coherently surfaced but crucially its axi is S of a HFD-PVD axis... If we can maintain marginality, cut the 500 mb mid max the climo 1.5 deg S of the Pike, and as we get closer.. the 700 mb wind component if not closed surface evolves S of Logan ... this will probably end up a blue snow thump or even 'bomb' for the Willamantic -ASH axis

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Can all us Mets please begin a campaign to explain to people that the axis of the ULL is not the focus - it is the wind max flowing around it... It's just that in this case, the wind max happens to be displaced a bit SE of systemic climo for these objects .. but the vort lobe ( as you noted) flows "UNDER" SNE ...

That's the whole ballgame ... If that ends up cutting west toward ALB ( such as Will's salient observation of a limitation on this whole design...), ...yeah, we're f'ed!  Particularly because of the marginality of the atmosphere... I mean, I've seen very cold scenarios where the DPVA cuts west and we end up with a snow thump ( a..k.a. "SW flow events .. " or related -) but, so long as the ballast of S/W momentum passes SE ... the Q-G forcing and UVM cores will evolve in concert with velocity diffluence and the low tend to develop under that upward vertical motion...

I keep seeing all this trashing solution because of a BUFF  Hdz nadir over BUFF ...

See my post above to Scott....directly mentioning where the vort energy is tracking.

Yesterday's Euro had it slicing through ROC....no dice for snow on that. That 06z run had it now running into AVP and likely SNE. That has a chance.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...