powderfreak Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 5 minutes ago, klw said: AM WX NE forum: Come for the Weather discussion and camaraderie; stay for the infighting, melts and recrimination! Hide the wives and children. Daddy’s smashing windows today. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spaizzo Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 FYI my family in NJ said it’s snowing like crazy down there right now... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 13 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: 1-2” more likely. Probably 2” will be common. Someone will get a bit more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 4 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Hide the wives and children. Daddy’s smashing windows today. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 Yeah, Close the shades until the 15th, It happens, You hate to see it.Were punting till the 15th? Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 4 minutes ago, Lava Rock said: Were punting till the 15th? Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk At the earliest, I blame the ones that bought new snow blowers and sleds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 4 minutes ago, dryslot said: At the earliest, I blame the ones that bought new snow blowers and sleds. Maybe just close shades until the spring equinox? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 14 minutes ago, Spaizzo said: FYI my family in NJ said it’s snowing like crazy down there right now... Yep sleeting here with flakes mixing in here in south portions of NYC and NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 16 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Hide the wives and children. Daddy’s smashing windows today. Electronic domestics Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FRWEATHA Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 Some flurries here now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 11 minutes ago, Lava Rock said: Were punting till the 15th? Like the Patriots this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 7 minutes ago, dryslot said: At the earliest, I blame the ones that bought new snow blowers and sleds. Blame Phineas- he bought those and a snow house. He is the new Eyewall! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 1 minute ago, klw said: Like the Patriots this afternoon. Punting on first down is always the safest play. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 1 minute ago, klw said: Blame Phineas- he bought those and a snow house. He is the new Eyewall! Him too, Almost time to kick him back the MD, Just bad juju. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 3, 2021 Author Share Posted January 3, 2021 mm nah ...that spoke of S/W shrapnel isn't any kind of silver bullet in my mind to be blunt. A strong more mechanically usurping presence with the main gig, as in ..all along, would have damped that out - that's sort of emerging because it can in that sense... This thing is too weak... It always was... We were focused on conceptual circumstance too much so, and didn't consider the finer Meteorological analytics ... it is what it is. Sometimes you get the bear, sometimes the bear gets you. Oops - ... or at least, for some of us we ignored the factor-ability ... NAO management didn't help.. I think there's like a "Miller A NAO" and "MIller B NAO" ... borrowing the poor schmucks name lol. The former is what happens when you have a fast careening flow at mid latitude from Japan to Chicago/DCA.. and then it quickly abates or significantly stems... There's like a "latent heat" slosh back in the hemispheric scales ..that we observe as a height eruption. It's ephemeral though ..it surges in and the decays.. We can see this last 40 days as kind of an anecdotal suggestion of proof - though it is a one time-lagged circumstance granted. But, we got cold a month ago... the flow was fast. We even ginned up a decent snow even that was a CSI juggernaut from NYS to CNE in a narrow band... Then, the flow relaxed, ..really anti perpetuity to the longer term trend ...and the NAO emerges ... Now, looking ahead in the models, the NAO is actually significantly deconstructed by even D7 now...and by D10... the operational Euro and GFS ... sort of argue it's gone.. Or significantly neutralized. But what is also happening? The flow is speeding up again. Hell..the extended GFS is back at it with 140 knot L/W wind ambience by 300+ hours .. la la range or not, since we've suffered winters like that for years now, heh prolly has legs. The other type of NAO seems to be fashioned top--> down, and is more connected to stratospheric vortex disruption events. Best example is February 2006 ... preceded in early January that year by a massive SSW and downwelling propagation event ... a latter circumstance routinely bouncing off skulls that use SSWs, which is an annoyance for another time. 20 days later, boom! What's interesting also is that the flow around that form of NAO stayed fast that year.. It was more " resistant" I suppose ... to the onslaught of a faster hemisphere. So, I think in the typology of the NAO ... one has more predictive skill than the other - the one that is polished and anchored by the total hemisphere ( top down ) may be accompanied by better performance. Contrasting, this nebular stuff.. it's like looking at the eddy whirls in a simmering pan on the stove, and trying to figure where all those are destined ... Makes sense, when entropy is large, the models suck - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 For the good of this board, I think we will have to have a poll to see which poster we offer up to ullr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 2 minutes ago, dryslot said: For the good of this board, I think we will have to have a poll to see which poster we offer up to ullr. Snow joe Thou that may not satisfy 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitzbuhel Craver Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 Any 12z optimism? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 Well at least it’s snowing lightly here from OE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 1 hour ago, Spaizzo said: FYI my family in NJ said it’s snowing like crazy down there right now... Now NJ is stealing our snow. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IowaStorm05 Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 Of all the models I have access to, only the v16 hangs on, maybe RAP. I don’t have access to all of them or their variants but no. Even an inch looking questionable. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 28 minutes ago, Kitzbuhel Craver said: Any 12z optimism? Dave is channeling the pope this morning . 2-4” 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 57 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Maybe just close shades until the spring equinox? Yep. I'll be in the garage...getting the cars ready for spring Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 1 hour ago, dryslot said: At the earliest, I blame the ones that bought new snow blowers and sleds. I changed the spark plug and the oil on mine yesterday, so that was probably the kiss of death. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 Some fantastic bump material in this thread... guess we’ll see how petty I’m feeling later. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 38 minutes ago, Kitzbuhel Craver said: Any 12z optimism? It looks like absolutely dung, how’s that for optimism? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IowaStorm05 Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 Evil. Not only that but my SNAP benefits office cut me off this weekend, good thing I have food. The institutional inertia behind the times, doesn’t understand, like they promised me they would on the phone, that there is no such thing as a “termination of employment” letter when you are an Uber driver. I explained this once on the phone interview and she said just write my own letter certifying I don’t do Uber anymore. So I did just that, and got a notice that it was rejected. Now I gotta deal with them on Monday 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 9 minutes ago, UnitedWx said: Yep. I'll be in the garage...getting the cars ready for spring Have them running while sleeping? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 This is not really even going to Gulf of Maine now . It’s trending so far ESE that When it’s captured and burps north a little bit it winds up South of Halifax N.S by about 100 miles and isn’t backing it up . This is whiffing Eastport Maine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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