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Significant upper middle Atlantic S/CNE mix/snow potential Jan 3+


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mm nah ...that spoke of S/W shrapnel isn't any kind of silver bullet in my mind to be blunt.

A strong more mechanically usurping presence with the main gig, as in ..all along, would have damped that out - that's sort of emerging because it can in that sense... This thing is too weak... It always was...  We were focused on conceptual circumstance too much so, and didn't consider the finer Meteorological analytics ... it is what it is. Sometimes you get the bear, sometimes the bear gets you.

Oops - ... or at least, for some of us we ignored the factor-ability ...

NAO management didn't help..   I think there's like a "Miller A NAO" and "MIller B NAO" ... borrowing the poor schmucks name lol.  The former is what happens when you have a fast careening flow at mid latitude from Japan to Chicago/DCA.. and then it quickly abates or significantly stems... There's like a "latent heat" slosh back in the hemispheric scales ..that we observe as a height eruption.  It's ephemeral though ..it surges in and the decays.. We can see this last 40 days as kind of an anecdotal suggestion of proof - though it is a one time-lagged circumstance granted.  But, we got cold a month ago... the flow was fast.  We even ginned up a decent snow even that was a CSI juggernaut from NYS to CNE in a narrow band... Then, the flow relaxed, ..really anti perpetuity to the longer term trend ...and the NAO emerges ... Now, looking ahead in the models, the NAO is actually significantly deconstructed by even D7 now...and by D10... the operational Euro and GFS ... sort of argue it's gone.. Or significantly neutralized.  But what is also happening? The flow is speeding up again. Hell..the extended GFS is back at it with 140 knot L/W wind ambience by 300+ hours .. la la range or not, since we've suffered winters like that for years now, heh prolly has legs.

The other type of NAO seems to be fashioned top--> down, and is more connected to stratospheric vortex disruption events.  Best example is February 2006 ... preceded in early January that year by a massive SSW and downwelling propagation event ... a latter circumstance routinely bouncing off skulls that use SSWs, which is an annoyance for another time.

ssw.jpg.9cf37ddde70f1bb05bbbc00d0ed3ec84.jpg

20 days later, boom!  What's interesting also is that the flow around that form of NAO stayed fast that year.. It was more " resistant" I suppose ... to the onslaught of a faster hemisphere.   

So, I think in the typology of the NAO ... one has more predictive skill than the other - the one that is polished and anchored by the total hemisphere ( top down ) may be accompanied by better performance.  Contrasting, this nebular stuff.. it's like looking at the eddy whirls in a simmering pan on the stove, and trying to figure where all those are destined ... Makes sense, when entropy is large, the models suck -

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Evil. Not only that but my SNAP benefits office cut me off this weekend, good thing I have food.

The institutional inertia behind the times, doesn’t understand, like they promised me they would on the phone, that there is no such thing as a “termination of employment” letter when you are an Uber driver. 
 

I explained this once on the phone interview and she said just write my own letter certifying I don’t do Uber anymore. So I did just that, and got a notice that it was rejected. Now I gotta deal with them on Monday 

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