weathafella Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Ha, had a feeling that might happen. I’ll put the euro in the toilet as I pee. Piss on the muthufukka 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IowaStorm05 Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 2 hours ago, Fozz said: So this has been reduced to a strung out POS, hasn't it? That is absolutely correct. It’s like your average snowfall event in Sparks, Nevada, except that type of snow event has no trouble sticking at 34 degrees. Desperado. Why don’t you come to your senses. You been out riding fences for so long. It may be raining, oh, raining. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 A marginally improved 3K/12K NAM. Time to flush this turd down the toilet and move on. C-2 for most of CT seems reasonable at this point. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 6 hours ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: You will when you wake up Monday to a green lawn. Seymour - 1, Tolland - 0 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 6 hours ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: Yes, I've learned never to discount anything, let alone pieces of guidance, keep an open mind, there's definitely plenty of signs of a shredded mess. Glad Euro and EPS is on our side, we will see. NAM isn't a piece of guidance, it's a piece of shit. (but i do agree with the sentiment) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 This didn’t happen to the old Euro..under 24hrs out and it literally barfs on itself. What a poor showing by that guidance. The king is indeed dead. Oh well, on to the next potential. As Ray just said maybe that bodes well for the next possible system. I’d be cool with that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 Well here's the time spent on 61 posts that I won't be getting back. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 2 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Ha, had a feeling that might happen. I’ll put the euro in the toilet as I pee. Just saw it too. When the early 00z guidance came in I wasn’t feeling great. Some of those same mesos are looking a bit better now though....so still gotta think there may be a decent stripe of advisory snow? Vortmax track is pretty classic for it....it’s just we aren’t going to be able to sync up the conveyors so warning snowfall isn’t happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Just saw it too. When the early 00z guidance came in I wasn’t feeling great. Some of those same mesos are looking a bit better now though....so still gotta think there may be a decent stripe of advisory snow? Vortmax track is pretty classic for it....it’s just we aren’t going to be able to sync up the conveyors so warning snowfall isn’t happening. Certainly wouldnt write it off completely yet. The RGEM is being a bit stubborn, for the CT/RI/SE MA area it did cut back a bit from 00Z but is still the most bullish with the system. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 OKX and BOX hold on the advisories but definitely cut back in the wording and amounts. From 2-4 locally higher in the BOX area to 2-3 and "up to 3" in the OKX zones except fairfield and new haven where they continue 2-4". Definitely boarderline to keep the advisories going. From the OKX AFD: Much of the frontogenetic and thermal forcing with the coastal low will remain offshore, while the precipitation shield expands to the NW of the low as the upper low approaches from the west. In some ways, this is taking on the appearance of a trowal, but in a much broader scope. Guidance continues to trend downward with liquid equivalent amounts generally less than a half an inch. Furthermore, the WPC Superensemble snowfall amounts have also dropped with the best chance for advisory level snows remaining across western Passaic county in NJ and Orange county in NY. Elsewhere across the advisory area, snowfall will generally be in the 1 to 3 inch range. While dropping the advisory was contemplated across eastern areas, ensemble mean guidance was just below advisory level snows in these areas. Should this trend continue with the 12Z cycle, this will have to be revisited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IowaStorm05 Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 Is having a low track this far east a common thing or no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IowaStorm05 Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 On the goofball RAP long range Notice the ever so slight hint of energy from offshore that was once looking like a bigger deal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 Probably the first and only call ill make on this one. If this look better (or worse) at 12Z i may update it. Pretty much a non-event the way i see it. Can't rule out a few isolated 2 or 3" amounts in interior southern connecticut. Right now, areas near the NY boarder look the most favorable on modeling. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 1 hour ago, The 4 Seasons said: Probably the first and only call ill make on this one. If this look better (or worse) at 12Z i may update it. Pretty much a non-event the way i see it. Can't rule out a few isolated 2 or 3" amounts in interior southern connecticut. Right now, areas near the NY boarder look the most favorable on modeling. Epic 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Epic 61 pages of epicness Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 1 hour ago, The 4 Seasons said: Probably the first and only call ill make on this one. If this look better (or worse) at 12Z i may update it. Pretty much a non-event the way i see it. Can't rule out a few isolated 2 or 3" amounts in interior southern connecticut. Right now, areas near the NY boarder look the most favorable on modeling. Days and days, one of the easiest forecasts 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 1 hour ago, The 4 Seasons said: Probably the first and only call ill make on this one. If this look better (or worse) at 12Z i may update it. Pretty much a non-event the way i see it. Can't rule out a few isolated 2 or 3" amounts in interior southern connecticut. Right now, areas near the NY boarder look the most favorable on modeling. The Terminator storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 Rough turn of events overnight . Grab a couple inches to cover things up and hope for a resurgence in 12z guidance . If not , at least we had a winter event to track the last few days. Better than we thought last week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitzbuhel Craver Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 Winter Storm Watch hoisted region wide? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 6z euro is even worse. What an abysmal performance by that model. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 Euro is dry Nam ftw ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 1 minute ago, Kitzbuhel Craver said: Winter Storm Watch hoisted region wide? Between the two day ice event and WSW, what a stretch of winter for the I-84 corridor. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: 6z euro is even worse. What an abysmal performance by that model. Euro went from a crushing job in ENE in one run to barely anything. Euro isn't the same anymore Stop tweaking the model lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Between the two day ice event and WSW, what a stretch of winter for the I-84 corridor. You were calling for inches of snows in the Tol to Ray corridor as late as yesterday . Let’s be fair. You didn’t think there’d be no snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: 6z euro is even worse. What an abysmal performance by that model. I bet it has the highest 500 z score over Nunavut though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 3 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Euro is dry Nam ftw ? The Para goofus started showing the drying out towards the east 4 or 5 model runs ago...I feel like that model has actually done pretty well so far. The mesos started picking up on it at 18z yesterday. At the same time the Euro had its best run....interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 On 12/31/2020 at 8:00 PM, Ginx snewx said: From amped into Buffalo to Suppression depression in 24 hrs Full circle. Lol models suck. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 3 minutes ago, dendrite said: I bet it has the highest 500 z score over Nunavut though. Yeah grab me the tissues while I stare at the MAE scores. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 I just googled ugly models and it wasn’t pretty so I‘ll spare us the disgust. What a trash performance. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 15 hours ago, CoastalWx said: I think a narrow area of several inches could work out. But honestly I’m quite baffled with how bad modeling is. Maybe two areas. One near TOL and points SW to NE from there in the high terrain. Perhaps another area just away from the coast like HRRR and Euro show? That would be depending on how that low develops and brings in the precip. What changes would you make to this forecast now? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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