Typhoon Tip Posted January 3, 2021 Author Share Posted January 3, 2021 Does the NAM’s domain space actually include the NAO…? I think it might overlap a little bit of the western limb - not abundantly sure frankly but I think it actually truncates. It’s just a hypothesis I’m wondering if maybe the meso models are just not seeing the full exertion from downstream or the full manifold of the wave length compression Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Just as ugly as the NAM. Long range RAP is hideous too. All the mesos so far at 00z are doing the same thing. I’m assuming the RGEM will join the party here in a minute. The more interesting thing is what do the globals do. That’s just silly. What a cluster fuk. Another reason why I think too much data thesedays can compicate matters. In the old days you’ll blend like 3 models and toss 1. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 7 minutes ago, weathafella said: Meanwhile everyone goes about their business Monday while Tip takes out the picture of Christine and smashes it against the wall...... yeah, if it does not snow, oh well, I mean 3K folks dying of COVID daily, not gonna bitch about getting no snow. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: It’s the attitude. Wantonly trying to justify 3 inches of QPF in lieu of the model that says .01 is not the right attitude. And it shows a bias. That bias leads to the grousing and bullshit that goes on after these things failing/ when they do I’m sorry it does - long years of experience ... Also tells us to respect the Euro a lot more than the NAM. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 4 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: What’s your gut telling you? I think the euro will be more correct but I’d be lying if I said I wasn’t spooked a bit. I still think the Synoptics favor something closer to the euro. I think Bob is correct noting that the mesos are chasing some lead crap....whether that’s real or not is hard to say but I usually am skeptical of it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: It’s the attitude. Wantonly trying to justify 3 inches of QPF in lieu of the model that says .01 is not the right attitude. And it shows a bias. That bias leads to the grousing and bullshit that goes on after these things failing/ when they do I’m sorry it does - long years of experience ... I’m not seeing any attitude? And nobody was saying that the 3” Euro Output was right. Just saying where I’d be hedging my bets at 24hr lead time. Maybe the NAM scores the win? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 11 minutes ago, dryslot said: Globals. 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Just as ugly as the NAM. Long range RAP is hideous too. All the mesos so far at 00z are doing the same thing. I’m assuming the RGEM will join the party here in a minute. The more interesting thing is what do the globals do. Yeah, Euro, GFS, GFSv16, GGEM and Ukie have all been on board with not letting the SLP off the coast swing wide east like the Meso's have, We see here shortly at 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 25 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: I’m talking lead time Tip...24hrs from go time, and it has over 3” of qpf on the cape, and NAM has .1. Bad continuity or not...I know where my money is. This is highs stakes right now . Euro looks just good enough but a fart East and it’s 1” QPF and for the cape . This is completely up in the air for most . Maybe MQE can lock in advisory , but I would not be shocked in this setup or this season if the euro moved 40 miles SE at 0z . I DONT favor that! but this is up in the air and on a razors edge . There is not much wiggle room and some of the energy is getting better sampled now ..meaning If we tick SE ..it’s no bueno for anyone Seeing 5”+ But it could also tick NW and crush some people . High Stakes . The mesos bother me . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: It’s the attitude. Wantonly trying to justify 3 inches of QPF in lieu of the model that says .01 is not the right attitude. And it shows a bias. That bias leads to the grousing and bullshit that goes on after these things failing/ when they do I’m sorry it does - long years of experience ... We're all biased, but how hard can the fall be when we expect several inches and receive a coating? As opposed to 10-20 and we get half a foot. I don't believe any of us here escape bias. That was my point, and I guess some will react more to the inevitable bust wherever it ends up, but the average weenie cares less about a busted 3-5" forecast than a busted 12-18". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 Hey, at least it’s fun right up to the end here with this one...like a who dunnit mystery??? The next clue comes very soon... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 3, 2021 Author Share Posted January 3, 2021 5 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said: Also tells us to respect the Euro a lot more than the NAM. In most settings sure but this is a unique one… And the euro like I said if you go back a ways ( probably missed the post) has been showing poor continuity just the same as the others ...having said all that I think you’re right ... more likely be correct, but I wasn’t really specifically addressing that likelihood ... I was talking about the attitude - whatever model has the biggest impact is the one that people start defending. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 rgem coming in a little more tucked thru 21. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I think the euro will be more correct but I’d be lying if I said I wasn’t spooked a bit. I still think the Synoptics favor something closer to the euro. I think Bob is correct noting that the mesos are chasing some lead crap....whether that’s real or not is hard to say but I usually am skeptical of it. It’s as if there is a huge subsidence zone created from this broad ULL and that lead vorticity then the ULL tightens up and tries to draw/snap back in the baroclinic zone. Not a huge confidence forecast for sure. I’d be leery of any ensemble mean right now that will smooth over this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: rgem coming in a little more tucked thru 21. Bless you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 2 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: This is highs stakes right now . Euro looks just good enough but a fart East and it’s 1” QPF and for the cape . This is completely up in the air for most . Maybe MQE can lock in advisory , but I would not be shocked in this setup or this season if the euro moved 40 miles SE at 0z . I DONT favor that! but this is up in the air and on a razors edge . There is not much wiggle room and some of the energy is getting better sampled now ..meaning If we tick SE ..it’s no bueno for anyone Seeing 5”+ But it could also tick NW and crush some people . High Stakes Yup..fun stuff here Pickles. We’re all Rolling the dice on this one. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 Ok so the rgem does not agree with the other mesos at 00z. Only ugly black and white maps are out but best i can see is it still has widespread high end advisory snows for most of CT/MA/RI (away from SE coast) I was kind of assuming it would go the direction of the others. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 Man some of you should try gummies. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 Just now, dryslot said: Man some of you should try gummies. Seriously lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 3, 2021 Author Share Posted January 3, 2021 5 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: I’m not seeing any attitude? And nobody was saying that the 3” Euro Output was right. Just saying where I’d be hedging my bets at 24hr lead time. Maybe the NAM scores the win? The fact that nobody “hedged” bets on the lower cycle solution for QPF amounts ....is the attitude Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 Yummy: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I think the euro will be more correct but I’d be lying if I said I wasn’t spooked a bit. I still think the Synoptics favor something closer to the euro. I think Bob is correct noting that the mesos are chasing some lead crap....whether that’s real or not is hard to say but I usually am skeptical of it. Not accusing you of this, but every time any meso has dogshit, someone will talk about it "chasing convection". God it pisses me off. Rant over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: The fact that nobody “hedged” bets on the lower cycle solution for QPF amounts ....is the attitude Not lower John...it was .1...1/10th of an inch of precipitation. That was the point..at least for me. If the NAM showed 1” of precip on the cape..that would have been much more reasonable in my mind. But it showed 1/10 of an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Ok so the rgem does not agree with the other mesos at 00z. Only ugly black and white maps are out but best i can see is it still has widespread high end advisory snows for most of CT/MA/RI (away from SE coast) I was kind of assuming it would go the direction of the others. Yea but it definitely fizzles out a bit like other mesos before it gets the capture/stall thing going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 3, 2021 Author Share Posted January 3, 2021 4 minutes ago, Henry's Weather said: We're all biased, but how hard can the fall be when we expect several inches and receive a coating? As opposed to 10-20 and we get half a foot. I don't believe any of us here escape bias. That was my point, and I guess some will react more to the inevitable bust wherever it ends up, but the average weenie cares less about a busted 3-5" forecast than a busted 12-18". At the core of it all is an unhealthy emotionally charged/guided decision circuitry ... Its a devotion to this engagement - I’ll give you that much LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 5 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Yummy: Rhymes with gummy. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Ok so the rgem does not agree with the other mesos at 00z. Only ugly black and white maps are out but best i can see is it still has widespread high end advisory snows for most of CT/MA/RI (away from SE coast) I was kind of assuming it would go the direction of the others. We’re not talking major differences in the ULL layout by much either. That lead vorticity needs to curl up closer to the coast IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 3, 2021 Author Share Posted January 3, 2021 6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Ok so the rgem does not agree with the other mesos at 00z. Only ugly black and white maps are out but best i can see is it still has widespread high end advisory snows for most of CT/MA/RI (away from SE coast) I was kind of assuming it would go the direction of the others. I still think it’s worth it, Will, to evaluate the domain spaces of that, and compared it to those other meso models; because really that smacks to me as though the other models are not feeling the weight or pushback from the wave compression off the NAO ‘slowing’/’blocking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: At the core of it all is an unhealthy emotionally charged/guided decision circuitry ... Its a devotion to this engagement - I’ll give you that much LOL Humans are emotional beings. Let your hair down a bit and come play with us...unless you prefer to isolate yourself with a room full of Alexas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 Reggie is a general 3-5" for a lot of SNE away from the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said: That lead vorticity needs to curl up closer to the coast IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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