powderfreak Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Look at any time frame you want....euro was a whiff most of that modeling evolution, and even close in...it had the death band over extreme s NH....then I smoked exhaust while Brian's chickens did naked snow angels in 34"....so don't tell me the shit was too amped. I'm seeing what I have saved, but yeah the EURO likes to over-amp. This worked out well at like 72 hours lead time in December. It was grossly over-amped until about 36-48 hours in the earlier December event. I'm still looking for my saved model runs but I could've sworn that other December event looked better here on the EURO than reality. I've shoveled plenty of EURO snow on the NW side, just saying. Not trying to piss you off, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 3, 2021 Author Share Posted January 3, 2021 Welll ... in principle the Euro is demonstrating questionable continuity; whether its wobbles are better for the cinema interest or not ... it’s still shaky continuity. That ICON model trended west by a goodly amount in the 18z run .. I mean they’re all still doing that I have not seen a single guidance type really show the same for very long Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 11 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said: 18z Euro: 3"+ qpf 0z NAM: 0.1" qpf I'll put my money on the NAM to cave. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 Lol...which one you gonna go with at this lead time? Roll the diceSent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 2 minutes ago, powderfreak said: I'm seeing what I have saved, but yeah the EURO likes to over-amp. This worked out well at like 72 hours lead time in December. It was grossly over-amped until about 36-48 hours in the earlier December event. I've shoveled plenty of EURO snow on the NW side, just saying. Not trying to piss you off, lol. Fine, but my point is that it did not do that in the 12/17 event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Welll ... in principle the Euro is demonstrating questionable continuity; whether its wobbles are better for the cinema interest or not ... it’s still shaky continuity. That ICON model trended west by a goodly amount in the 18z run .. NAM and RGEM have had worse continuity imo....they were giving me like 20" yesterday. Euro never did that. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Welll ... in principle the Euro is demonstrating questionable continuity; whether its wobbles are better for the cinema interest or not ... it’s still shaky continuity. That ICON model trended west by a goodly amount in the 18z run .. I’m talking lead time Tip...24hrs from go time, and it has over 3” of qpf on the cape, and NAM has .1. Bad continuity or not...I know where my money is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 Actually I would say the 00z 3 KM NAM is not a miss or a bad run like the 12 KM NAM. In fact, the 3km 00z run came in stronger with the system and a juicier overall QPF shield. Also, the timing is really fragile with the capture and the timing. That has huge implications to what occurs. Looking at the information at hand, I would wait for the 12z runs on Sunday before putting a kibosh on this system in general. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 I’m shaking now....need me my rpm! 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Fine, but my point is that it did not do that in the 12/17 event. I definitely think mid-level banding could always be NW... ripping good DGZ flakes to the NW of models for sure. I’m just never sold on the CCB being west of modeled location with the Euro if that makes sense. Mid-level banding, absolutely possible. That’s usually poorly modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 1 minute ago, weathafella said: I’m shaking now....need me my rpm! Be careful what you wish for... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 2 minutes ago, weathafella said: I’m shaking now....need me my rpm! Have a shot of crown...you’ll feel better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 3, 2021 Author Share Posted January 3, 2021 Say what you guys want it sounds like rationalizing and spinning and justifying reasons to go with 3” over .01” Having provided zero substantive analysis as to why the 01 could possibly be true but you cannot say for certain that it’s not - look I’m just trying to protect you’z guises emotional states when this doesn’t happen or something stupid like that and you start throwing hands and acting all pissy ... blaming this that and the other thing hey it’s your life Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 1 minute ago, powderfreak said: I definitely think mid-level banding could always be NW... ripping good DGZ flakes to the NW of models for sure. I’m just never sold on the CCB being west of modeled location with the Euro if that makes sense. Mid-level banding, absolutely possible. That’s usually poorly modeled. Right. I'm talking about mid level banding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 Globals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 Just now, Typhoon Tip said: Say what you guys want it sounds like rationalizing and spinning and justifying reasons to go with 3” over .01” Having provided zero substantive analysis as to why the 01 could possibly be true but you cannot say for certain that it’s not - look I’m just trying to protect you’z guises emotional states when this doesn’t happen or something stupid like that and you start throwing hands and acting all pissy ... blaming this that and the other thing hey it’s your life I'll live, John....I'll play with the daughter and get over it, just like I did when 12/17 porked me. In the mean time, still doubt that is the case. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Have a shot of crown...you’ll feel better. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 1 minute ago, weathafella said: I’m shaking now....need me my rpm! It's like crack Jerry when he sees the latest RPM loading 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Say what you guys want it sounds like rationalizing and spinning and justifying reasons to go with 3” over .01” Having provided zero substantive analysis as to why the 01 could possibly be true but you cannot say for certain that it’s not - look I’m just trying to protect you’z guises emotional states when this doesn’t happen or something stupid like that and you start throwing hands and acting all pissy ... blaming this that and the other thing hey it’s your life I'm ready... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 It wasn't the 3km NAM I thought I was looking at, it was the 00z WRF ARW2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 2 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said: Perfect! I gave up on the cigars though about 20 years ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Say what you guys want it sounds like rationalizing and spinning and justifying reasons to go with 3” over .01” Having provided zero substantive analysis as to why the 01 could possibly be true but you cannot say for certain that it’s not - look I’m just trying to protect you’z guises emotional states when this doesn’t happen or something stupid like that and you start throwing hands and acting all pissy ... blaming this that and the other thing hey it’s your life Really? It’s not gonna bother me past Monday morning if this misses me. Sure I’d like to have 2-4” cuz I like snow. But if it gives me a coating I can see the grass through, so be it. So you can go with the NAM if you feel it’s doing a better job with this system currently. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I'll live, John....I'll play with the daughter and get over it, just like I did when 12/17 porked me. In the mean time, still doubt that is the case. We debate and occassionally heeve a little extra verbage at one another in jest but no one is losing their emotional well being over this...well maybe Ice1929 does. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Right. I'm talking about mid level banding. Yeah my bad, I just think the EURO has these exotic westward QPF progs and amped solutions at times. Hard to tell when it's right vs. wrong. The mid-level banding is definitely fair game to extend further away from a deepening SFC low track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 Meanwhile everyone goes about their business Monday while Tip takes out the picture of Christine and smashes it against the wall...... 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Really? It’s not gonna bother me past Monday morning if this misses me. Sure I’d like to have 2-4” cuz I like snow. But if it gives me a coating I can see the grass through, so be it. So you can go with the NAM if you feel it’s doing a better job with this system currently. Seriously, the emotions only run high when we expect major totals. I hope no one in SNE is expecting major totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 10 minutes ago, weathafella said: I’m shaking now....need me my rpm! Just as ugly as the NAM. Long range RAP is hideous too. All the mesos so far at 00z are doing the same thing. I’m assuming the RGEM will join the party here in a minute. The more interesting thing is what do the globals do. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Just as ugly as the NAM. Long range RAP is hideous too. All the mesos so far at 00z are doing the same thing. I’m assuming the RGEM will join the party here in a minute. The more interesting thing is what do the globals do. What’s your gut telling you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 3, 2021 Author Share Posted January 3, 2021 Just now, Henry's Weather said: Seriously, the emotions only run high when we expect major totals. I hope no one in SNE is expecting major totals. It’s the attitude. Wantonly trying to justify 3 inches of QPF in lieu of the model that says .01 is not the right attitude. And it shows a bias. That bias leads to the grousing and bullshit that goes on after these things failing/ when they do I’m sorry it does - long years of experience ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Just as ugly as the NAM. Long range RAP is hideous too. All the mesos so far at 00z are doing the same thing. I’m assuming the RGEM will join the party here in a minute. The more interesting thing is what do the globals do. Bruce Willis is dead in a gutter right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now