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Significant upper middle Atlantic S/CNE mix/snow potential Jan 3+


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There were definitely some zonked GFS and GEM runs in there a couple days ago...giving all different parts of SNE 12”+ (in some cases way more) depending on which run it was....but those all had a clear capture and stall down at a further south latitude which was never totally realistic imho. 

I’m still thinking the precip shield will be further northwest though on the initial burst than modeled for reasons discussed already many times. We’ll see if that improves on tonight’s 00z runs. 

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

There were definitely some zonked GFS and GEM runs in there a couple days ago...giving all different parts of SNE 12”+ (in some cases way more) depending on which run it was....but those all had a clear capture and stall down at a further south latitude which was never totally realistic imho. 

I’m still thinking the precip shield will be further northwest though on the initial burst than modeled for reasons discussed already many times. We’ll see if that improves on tonight’s 00z runs. 

This.

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Looking at all the 12z/18z guidance so far...

Only the 12z Euro (and 18z HRRR, well out of range) and EPS support the higher 3-6/4-8 amounts in eastern SNE... if it were any other model going against the consensus, we'd toss it.

Fair to weigh it more heavily at the moment, but it will need to double down at 18z / 0z. Otherwise the Box map is looking about right.

 

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7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

How come you left this out?

. Map likely refined tomorrow after midday information

I didn't leave anything out it's a link :)

But while we're on the subject how come you left this out? ;)

Sunday and night and Monday snow still looking pretty insignificant. Map likely refined tomorrow after midday information.

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24 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

One or two Nam runs . But in all honesty this was never a e Ma Jack . With marginal cold air that was never realistic . You guys Jack with deep antecedent cold 

RGEM, UK and GFS all jacked e MA w big totals.....again, I'm not arguing it was ever likely.  But e MA does not need deep antecedent cold in mid winter to jack. Just the mid level banding, like anywhere else.

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Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

RGEM, UK and GFS all jacked e MA w big totals.....again, I'm not arguing it was ever likely.  But e MA does not need deep antecedent cold in mid winter to jack. Just the mid level banding, like anywhere else.

I agree Ray, Cape Cod needs more luck, but honestly Plymouth and the north shore do not need that much luck.  Plus the models have gone with a upper level closing off southeast of CHH, I do not care if ACK turns to rain, which looks likely no matter the situation.  However, current observations suggest that the surface low is stronger over the NC western mountains and the pressure falls are the best there.  This is coming more west than the 18z suite.

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3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

RGEM, UK and GFS all jacked e MA w big totals.....again, I'm not arguing it was ever likely.  But e MA does not need deep antecedent cold in mid winter to jack. Just the mid level banding, like anywhere else.

Generally places in E MA which I consider BOS and burbs and then to SE MA which begins from Scooter in S Wey sw to Taunton needs cold air in place. There’s not that many storms where the coast of E Ma jacks with marginal air. This is super marginal . Not to say it can’t snow, but it ain’t Jack 

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Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Generally places in E MA which I consider BOS and burbs and then to SE MA which begins from Scooter in S Wey sw to Taunton needs cold air in place. There’s not that many storms where the coast of E Ma jacks with marginal air. This is super marginal 

Very detailed. 

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