Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,607
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    ArlyDude
    Newest Member
    ArlyDude
    Joined

Significant upper middle Atlantic S/CNE mix/snow potential Jan 3+


Typhoon Tip
 Share

Recommended Posts

Still time for changes.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
An active Pacific Jet and strengthening upper level blocking to our
northeast will lead to a crowded upper level pattern as several
upper level features traverse the CONUS early next week. These
features will catch up to each other underneath the block,
morphing into an upper low that will spin over head through the
middle of the week. At the surface low pressure will track from
the Mid-Atlantic towards Nova Scotia Sunday night into Tuesday
and then retrograde and stall near the Gulf of Maine Tuesday
night into Wednesday. Current guidance keeps the heaviest
precipitation offshore with the potential for periods of light
precipitation Sunday night into Wednesday.

The components the low pressure system include a trough over
Texas, a short wave that moved into the Pacific NW this morning,
and another short wave moving into British Columbia tonight.
These features eventually consolidate into an upper low over the
Northeast under a blocking high over the Labrador Sea. Ensemble
sensitivity experiments out of Stony Brook highlight the
interaction of the latter two waves with the trough over Texas
with the greatest sensitivity. Although there has been a notable
shift farther offshore with the 02.12Z ensemble suite, one of
the features is still in the data sparse Pacific along with CIPS
Analogs showing a few analog systems that tracked close enough
to bring appreciable snowfall. Therefore, have increased PoPs
above NBM guidance to account for the potential of future track
adjustments as well as the persistence of the upper low near
overhead.

At this time there is potential for periods of snow from Sunday
night through Wednesday morning with highest chances along the coast
shifting towards northern and eastern zones Tuesday into Wednesday
morning as the low retrogrades westward. Impacts wise, amounts look
to be light each day with mainly intermittent periods of snow
covered roads. There also remains potential that snow will mix with
rain at times near the coast with highs in the mid 30s.

High pressure will nose into the region from the north Thursday and
Friday with signs of another low pressure system developing near the
East Coast next weekend.
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Nothing ever was showing a massive blockbuster. This always has been and still is a solid 6” snowfall over a good chunk of the area. With local zones getting 8-10

There was some guidance showing a blockbuster, but I agree that it was never really viable.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...