USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 Scott, I have seen the models overestimate this warmth in the past. Again, the winds stay more NE instead of E and especially SE then we stand a much greater chance of a more substantial bust in the positive direction. Now, the biggest question in regards to the track and intensity is where does the big band setup and does it reach the Canal and points west? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 These forecasts often end in disappointment here. Sounds like threading the needle to me. Just enough of a chance to drag you in and believe, often ends in cold rain. We pray for better 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 On 1/2/2021 at 6:44 PM, CoastalWx said: Jimmy has a 2000’ layer of air to worry about near the surface. Expand Well you know Jimmy...that imagination is rampant. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 On 1/2/2021 at 6:46 PM, SouthCoastMA said: Yeah..lot more to overcome even with better dynamics. These airmasses blow and suck..especially in early winter on the Cape Expand This is not early December, this is early January, prospects are higher, again, not expecting too much at all here, but the possibility is greater the closer to the I95 corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 On 1/2/2021 at 6:44 PM, ORH_wxman said: Looks like there may be a CF pretty close to BOS-PVD line for at least a while. Maybe just NW of that. Should be below freezing on the west side of that overnight Sunday night. SE MA could struggle at 34 unless rates are higher...which they could be. Expand Are we 31-32 in the hills for the duration Sunday into Monday pm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 I am not imagining anything. This has potential, as the 925mb temps dramatically cool as the low deepens below 992mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 On 1/2/2021 at 6:48 PM, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: I am not imagining anything. This has potential, as the 925mb temps dramatically cool as the low deepens below 992mb. Expand We would need a mega ccb..but even then I can't imagine more than an inch or two Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 Ugh what a great setup for snow except for the fact there isn't much cold air around. How may close-to-the-benchmark storms are we gonna get where we have this rotten airmass to the north. At least it's not a cutter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 On 1/2/2021 at 6:44 PM, ORH_wxman said: Looks like there may be a CF pretty close to BOS-PVD line for at least a while. Maybe just NW of that. Should be below freezing on the west side of that overnight Sunday night. SE MA could struggle at 34 unless rates are higher...which they could be. Expand I feel like 78 and I are in good spots for this one. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 On 1/2/2021 at 6:47 PM, Damage In Tolland said: Are we 31-32 in the hills for the duration Sunday into Monday pm? Expand My gut says it prob tickles down to 29-30 I think at elevation later Sunday/Sunday night. It will prob start near freezing Sunday afternoon though. 925s are like -2 or -3 and we have that weak high to the north so I think it will be hard to stay near 32 in elevated interior when steady snow is falling. Esp after dark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 It'll be a shame to waste that precip as rain and slop at the beach destinations down there. Send the precip up here, and I will turn it into valuable snow. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 On 1/2/2021 at 6:51 PM, ORH_wxman said: My gut says it prob tickles down to 29-30 I think at elevation later Sunday/Sunday night. It will prob start near freezing Sunday afternoon though. 925s are like -2 or -3 and we have that weak high to the north so I think it will be hard to stay near 32 in elevated interior when steady snow is falling. Esp after dark. Expand Yeah . It’ll be interesting to see what the dews are tomorrow morning . If they’re 30-31.. Then it’s paste . Mid 20’s. Paste to powder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 On 1/2/2021 at 6:52 PM, PhineasC said: It'll be a shame to waste that precip as rain and slop at the beach destinations down there. Send the precip up here, and I will turn it into valuable snow. Expand Lol...I’m sure the coastal folks will be glad to do that for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 I dunno....I think this one way over performs qpf wise given the sweetness of the mid levels. Someone in Boston or metro west may get buried. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 2, 2021 Author Share Posted January 2, 2021 On 1/2/2021 at 2:32 PM, ORH_wxman said: I don’t think that part of the storm is going to hit SNE. It’s going to be the initial thump from the main vortmax that is pretty far west...that’s the part id expect to look better as we get closer. The ferocious CCB and stall is likely going to stay offshore though maybe eastern areas still get lucky. Expand Late to the pahty this day ...but, mm .. .I didn't really ever see this as having "ferocious CCB" - maybe you're just being expressive. I'll get caught up - ... but firstly, all models sucked donkey D since 12z yesterday ... just about as good of a red flag as anything you yourself were opining a couple days ago. .. Secondly, I've thought all along that this was a like a 1/3 to 3/8ths percentile low by our cyclone climate standards ... but what it did bring to the table as its 'special talent' was that it has higher impact snow type. You know.. .lay down 8" of 9::1 over a large area ...that's bit of a hassle. Plus, the duration was also a wild card. Both appear in jeopardy of fading E as I am sure the next 5 pages of this thread will probably evince LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 On 1/2/2021 at 7:10 PM, weathafella said: I dunno....I think this one way over performs qpf wise given the sweetness of the mid levels. Someone in Boston or metro west may get buried. Expand Yeah, I’m feeling pretty good for 6+, the euro gave me some confidence Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 Will probably is intrigued at his spot in Holliston Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 On 1/2/2021 at 6:10 PM, Ginx snewx said: 12Z Expand That looks great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 On 1/2/2021 at 7:23 PM, STILL N OF PIKE said: Will probably is intrigued at his spot in Holliston Expand That spot always does well....its the ORH of e MA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 On 1/2/2021 at 7:15 PM, Bostonseminole said: Yeah, I’m feeling pretty good for 6+, the euro gave me some confidence Expand We can go warning IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 Can always lock in the 15z RAP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 On 1/2/2021 at 7:36 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: That spot always does well....its the ORH of e MA Expand There is a good chunk of land 400-500’ on that Sw/w flank of 495 that is often west of a CF w added elevation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 On 1/2/2021 at 7:36 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: We can go warning IMO Expand And BOX will go watch for all of interior SNE in the next 12-18 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 On 1/2/2021 at 6:51 PM, weathafella said: I feel like 78 and I are in good spots for this one. Expand Yea, I like from you to me...interior e MA if there is such a thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 I'm more excited for this than I was for the 12/17 Boxing day redux. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 I would like a zonked nam run ..earlier capture . See some pretty colors 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 On 1/2/2021 at 7:42 PM, STILL N OF PIKE said: There is a good chunk of land 400-500’ on that Sw/w flank of 495 that is often west of a CF w added elevation Expand Yea, sneaky good spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 On 1/2/2021 at 7:44 PM, STILL N OF PIKE said: I would like a zonked nam run ..earlier capture . See some pretty colors Expand I think that ship sailed, but nice event en route if expectations aren't zonked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 Elevation will be vital in this . If you’re looking to Jack. Most I know don’t care 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 On 1/2/2021 at 7:46 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: I think that ship sailed, but nice event en route if expectations aren't zonked. Expand If you tick Euro W a tad more things get interesting Monday eve to Tuesday 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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