Damage In Tolland Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 1 minute ago, wxsniss said: For SNE, pretty sizable discontinuity on 12z Euro compared to 0z / yesterday's 12z... This 12z run finally has a more expected distribution of dynamics and QPF you'd expect with a SLP tracking over the benchmark. By 18z Mon, with an H5 low now closing completely off the Cape compared to over SNE in prior runs, might expect even more further NW of that into SNE and eventually eastern NH / eastern ME. Yup. That narrow strip will be much more widespread clear back to ALB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IowaStorm05 Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 I’m seeing a lot of 10:1 ratio maps and I am concerned that we won’t have ratios that good And models have been so inconsistent and erratic that I feel like we have almost no idea where gets what Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 Just now, IowaStorm05 said: I’m seeing a lot of 10:1 ratio maps and I am concerned that we won’t have ratios that good Who cares...it’s snow, just enjoy it and be happy it isn’t raining. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 That storm sits in GOM and seems to be re-energized Tuesday Nite as A new ULL / energy rotates in from SW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 Upper level temps look good here on the Euro, but the surface looks warm for much of this. I'm selling those snow maps. There will be a lot of mix without heavy qpf rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 That looks to me like a very long fetch for days set up for a place like Brant rock I would like to see this back up more and MQE destroyed at 650’ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 1 minute ago, 78Blizzard said: Upper level temps look good here on the Euro, but the surface looks warm for much of this. I'm selling those snow maps. There will be a lot of mix without heavy qpf rates. Bingo.... especially in eastern and southeast areas... better shot back west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 5 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Nope... I’ve been meh on this from the start... I’m always cautious when temps are trash. I suppose if we get into a real good band we could score some accums, but honesty, I’m not counting on it. Winds go North And that’s awfully close to the meat of the band. Those are 10:1 maps, but several inches certainly possible verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 3 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: That storm sits in GOM and seems to be re-energized Tuesday Nite as A new ULL / energy rotates in from SW We sit and spin and MPM days and days . When you see deep easterly inflow at 850 like that in winter.. you see snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Bingo.... especially in eastern and southeast areas... better shot back west But with the bigger risk out that way, comes a higher reward if you get into the CCB. So it’s a potentially exciting set up for you guys out there. Roll the dice baby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 Would be a real wet snow too. I dunno, I’d be happy with 1-3” of man snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 4 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: That storm sits in GOM and seems to be re-energized Tuesday Nite as A new ULL / energy rotates in from SW Starts monday and snows until weds night up here................ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 Just now, WinterWolf said: But with tiger bigger risk out that way, comes a higher reward if you get into the CCB. So it’s a potentially exciting set up for you guys out there. Roll the dice baby. Yeah. Bring that west a bit and I’ll play with the dynamics vs .2” of qpf every 6 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 Just now, CoastalWx said: Yeah. Bring that west a bit and I’ll play with the dynamics vs .2” of qpf every 6 hrs. Yup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 Unfortunately just 1 run of the Euro... great trend, but guidance is still all over to be completely certain with this For eastern SNE, the crappy air mass also makes me hesitant of widespread 3-6/4-8" until we're more confident of the better dynamics Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitzbuhel Craver Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: We sit and spin and MPM days and days . When you see deep easterly inflow at 850 like that in winter.. you see snow You sure do... in the upslope regions of the Greens and Whites. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 Things should start coming together/getting clearer now that the system from last night is moving away too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 Pulling for an inch if dynamics take over. Need a ton Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 It is not about the system that just impacted us, it is about the upper level shortwave moving into the PAC NW states in the next 24 to 36 hours that impacts the potential stall and long duration nature of this system. Which is why the 00z suite and 12z suite for tomorrow is most important. HIRES models show a stronger surface low than the globals. the newest 3km NAM brings it below 980mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 10 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said: Upper level temps look good here on the Euro, but the surface looks warm for much of this. I'm selling those snow maps. There will be a lot of mix without heavy qpf rates. Did you check 925s? Toss those 2m even with light to moderate with those 925s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 Just now, SouthCoastMA said: Pulling for an inch if dynamics take over. Need a ton Cape Cod seems to be the best place for a lot more snow. Why? We are the closest to the strongest banding, and dynamics as a H7 low closes off to the south of ACK and then Southeast. The H85 to H925 both dynamically cool rapidly as the surface low bombs out to the southeast of ACK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 1 minute ago, weathafella said: Did you check 925s? Toss those 2m even with light to moderate with those 925s I agree Jerry, a lot of people get caught up in the modeled surface temps during storms where the H925 temps are cooler than -3C. This storm is dynamic, will it cool the atmosphere as long as the track stays southeast of ACK. I am still a bit concerned with the track of the H5 low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 1 minute ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: It is not about the system that just impacted us, it is about the upper level shortwave moving into the PAC NW states in the next 24 to 36 hours that impacts the potential stall and long duration nature of this system. Which is why the 00z suite and 12z suite for tomorrow is most important. HIRES models show a stronger surface low than the globals. the newest 3km NAM brings it below 980mb. I guess we’ll see Jimmy? I think the stall idea is too late for most in SNE. But we’ll see how it trends today and overnight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 1 minute ago, WinterWolf said: I guess we’ll see Jimmy? I think the stall idea is too late for most in SNE. But we’ll see how it trends today and overnight? Not if the 12z EURO is right and the 12z UKMET Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 I was wrong about the surface low intensity on the 3km NAM. It seems it was still around 990mb. Unless the TropicalTidbits and NCEP sites are off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 1 minute ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: I was wrong about the surface low intensity on the 3km NAM. It seems it was still around 990mb. Unless the TropicalTidbits and NCEP sites are off. Don’t get your hopes too high with this. Mostly rain out that way for the most part the way it looks now. Maybe it trends better today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 Jimmy has a 2000’ layer of air to worry about near the surface. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 6 minutes ago, weathafella said: Did you check 925s? Toss those 2m even with light to moderate with those 925s Looks like there may be a CF pretty close to BOS-PVD line for at least a while. Maybe just NW of that. Should be below freezing on the west side of that overnight Sunday night. SE MA could struggle at 34 unless rates are higher...which they could be. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 7 minutes ago, weathafella said: Did you check 925s? Toss those 2m even with light to moderate with those 925s I'm not sure -1C to -2C will cut it at the surface. Hope you're right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 Just now, CoastalWx said: Jimmy has a 2000’ layer of air to worry about near the surface. Yeah..lot more to overcome even with better dynamics. These airmasses blow and suck..especially in early winter on the Cape Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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