40/70 Benchmark Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I feel like anything we can grab before 1/10 is a bonus. 1/4 can definitely produce (esp interior), but there's not much wiggle room. There may be another shot around 1/7-9 or so. Agree...same timeline we had for December IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 Yep, agree with you guys. The first half of January looked pretty tough from a ways out. The fact maybe some areas in SNE can score would be a bonus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Yep, agree with you guys. The first half of January looked pretty tough from a ways out. The fact maybe some areas in SNE can score would be a bonus. There is still potential to get the 1/4 system (or even the one after that) into a "December 5th but slightly better airmass" territory, which would obviously work. It would require squeezing e ULL just underneath us though. I think even a Euro/GFS compromise might work on 1/4 for at least some of the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 11 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Agree...same timeline we had for December IMO. You and the baby? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 12 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: There is still potential to get the 1/4 system (or even the one after that) into a "December 5th but slightly better airmass" territory, which would obviously work. It would require squeezing e ULL just underneath us though. I think even a Euro/GFS compromise might work on 1/4 for at least some of the area. I kind of hope even if it’s rain here, we flip to a couple of inches of paste. Would be a win. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 Just remember yesterday the 4th was just a blip. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Just remember yesterday the 4th was just a blip. Tomorrow it'll be over the GL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Tomorrow it'll be over the GL. Or the BM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 17 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Or the BM 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 Just now, Ginx snewx said: What's the 96hr panel look like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 10 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: What's the 96hr panel look like You mean 108 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 I worry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: You mean 108 No, I want to know where the ULL is prior to transferring to coast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 30, 2020 Author Share Posted December 30, 2020 27 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: What's the 96hr panel look like Both the GEPs and GEFs indicating the spread is pulling back WNW of the 96 and 120 hour positions... That's usually an indicator for what direction any correction is likely to go - ...I mean, not every time, no. just something to look for as we wade thru the morass of people's effectively diminishing this threads potential to a laughability - wtf wow. I haven't seen anything to deter my thinking that NAO blossoms in tandem with the pattern's delivery from the West...that usually parlays to Benchmark activities given time. So we'll see - Keep in mind... we don't need to see a 977 mb low ESE of ISP to suspect a performing coastal event... I feel like there's a bit of predilection to needing idealized set ups or hand throwing happens... But, I'll take a wet 996 low just off Martha's Vineyard with mid level support moving white plains Ny to PSM, NH ...with -1 at 850 mb any day in January as a winter enthusiast... for a D5 model prognosis. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 2 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: No, I want to know where the ULL is prior to transferring to coast. Sorry I can't get 5H data only anomaly which is Ohio Valley Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 FWIW, and prob not much yet, the 84h NAM at 18z is way slower in departing the 1/2 system which would definitely force the 1/4 system further south as the spacing between the two is smaller. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 GFS is a moderate snow event to eastern areas. Consider all model biases. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 Para has Kevin, Ray, all of cne and NNE happy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowderBeard Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 v16 gone wild. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 Meh. Marginal airmass with the ull over Josh Allen’s crib...nothing to see SW of BDL. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 V16 is nudity. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 29 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Meh. Marginal airmass with the ull over Josh Allen’s crib...nothing to see SW of BDL. Hope 1/2 is slower to depart. It will help squeeze the ULL for 1/4 and give a legit chance to redevelop all the midlevels south of New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 1 hour ago, PowderBeard said: v16 gone wild. Rain here on that model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Rain here on that model. A different version of the same thing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 Shades of Jan 2011. We take. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 We online with new Davis . LFG weens 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 If this breaks right , we Then may need to be inland and a little elevation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: We online with new Davis . LFG weens Nice. Now you have to sign up for CWOP. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 Just now, dendrite said: Nice. Now you have to sign up for CWOP. What’s that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 9 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: We online with new Davis . LFG weens What is your dew? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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