Significant upper middle Atlantic S/CNE mix/snow potential Jan 3+

[The 4 Seasons]

From BOX and OKX

 

[Damage In Tolland]

Nice to see things continued looking good overnight. Solid 6+ for much of SNE and more up North. Should lay down a nice pack. Then see what backs in from the NE Tuesday/ Wed

[STILL N OF PIKE]

17 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Nice to see things continued looking good overnight. Solid 6+ for much of SNE and more up North. Should lay down a nice pack. Then see what backs in from the NE Tuesday/ Wed

Orwell 1984

we got the Reggie 

 

[dryslot]

After brief shortwave ridging and a dry Saturday night/Sunday, the second storm system will approach from the southwest. This system will develop along the residual baroclinic gradient left in the wake of the first low along the trailing cold front, with cyclogenesis developing in response to renewed height falls/mid-level divergence and the LFQ of a subsequent jet streak arcing poleward from the Deep South. While there is uncertainty into the exact track of this second low as it will depend somewhat on the evolution of the first system, it is quite likely that a low will move offshore the Mid-Atlantic and then pass near the Benchmark before lifting into the Gulf of Maine Monday night. As this occurs, the mid-level shortwave will deepen and close off, potentially capturing the surface low which will be slowing due to downstream ridging. The ridging downstream could be significant enough to block eastward progress of this low, and while there is quite a bit of spread in the ensembles by D3, a track more NW of the operational runs seems likely as the downstream ridge gets reinforced and the upper trough interacts with this low. Current WPC probabilities are modest for 4 inches both D2 (Catskills and terrain of SNE) and D3 (Maine and NH), but there is potential for quite a bit more, especially in Maine, where a stalling or retrograding low with persistent theta-e advection may occur and CIPS analogs suggest a greater than 60% chance for 6" of snow. After coordination with the offices believe the ensemble approach showing a subtle upward trend in probabilities is best at this time.

[Damage In Tolland]

14 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Orwell 1984

we got the Reggie 

 

Everything looks solid . As Will and other mets said this is a system you toss Qpf. It’s a robust ULL going out under . It’s gonna snow 

[HoarfrostHubb]

58 minutes ago, IowaStorm05 said:

We put her down in a shallow grave
She wears a dress like a body bag every day
And this way she won't have to run away
And she can keep her regrets at bay every day

 

Love them

[Baroclinic Zone]

21 hours ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

My money is on this being a ME threat.

 

[dryslot]

06Z Euro looks tic or so further west then 0z so far @H5.

[dryslot]

31 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

 

This includes today's, And still going up here at hr90.

This

[ORH_wxman]

25 minutes ago, dryslot said:

06Z Euro looks tic or so further west then 0z so far @H5.

Keeps ticking NW each run with the main sfc features. 

[dryslot]

5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Keeps ticking NW each run with the main sfc features. 

It at least has the slp where it should be offshore rather then being way east.

[Kitzbuhel Craver]

Meh.

[moneypitmike]

1 hour ago, dryslot said:

After brief shortwave ridging and a dry Saturday night/Sunday, the second storm system will approach from the southwest. This system will develop along the residual baroclinic gradient left in the wake of the first low along the trailing cold front, with cyclogenesis developing in response to renewed height falls/mid-level divergence and the LFQ of a subsequent jet streak arcing poleward from the Deep South. While there is uncertainty into the exact track of this second low as it will depend somewhat on the evolution of the first system, it is quite likely that a low will move offshore the Mid-Atlantic and then pass near the Benchmark before lifting into the Gulf of Maine Monday night. As this occurs, the mid-level shortwave will deepen and close off, potentially capturing the surface low which will be slowing due to downstream ridging. The ridging downstream could be significant enough to block eastward progress of this low, and while there is quite a bit of spread in the ensembles by D3, a track more NW of the operational runs seems likely as the downstream ridge gets reinforced and the upper trough interacts with this low. Current WPC probabilities are modest for 4 inches both D2 (Catskills and terrain of SNE) and D3 (Maine and NH), but there is potential for quite a bit more, especially in Maine, where a stalling or retrograding low with persistent theta-e advection may occur and CIPS analogs suggest a greater than 60% chance for 6" of snow. After coordination with the offices believe the ensemble approach showing a subtle upward trend in probabilities is best at this time.

Not surprised at all.  This will be a good event  east of a line from near you to Pit2.

Mundane for the rest.  Although, given the state of things since the grinch melt, mundane is good.

[Modfan2]

9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Keeps ticking NW each run with the main sfc features. 

Is that the tuck?

[powderfreak]

I like this look for upslope, ha.

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, moneypitmike said:

Not surprised at all.  This will be a good event  east of a line from near you to Pit2.

Mundane for the rest.  Although, given the state of things since the grinch melt, mundane is good.

H5 track was further NW this run by a tic or two, Take a few more of these and it gets it more interesting for many.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

4 minutes ago, Modfan2 said:

Is that the tuck?

Maybe , semantics . The only model I see Tuck is Reggie at 6z , tucks right into South central Jersey coast 

[TheMainer]

10 minutes ago, dryslot said:

It at least has the slp where it should be offshore rather then being way east.

I remember an event when I was in late middle/ early high school (2002 to 2005 timeframe) that retrograded in the GOM and gave Bangor and Millinocket 18 inches and I think we got nearly whiffed in Greenville area.

If that run verifies in your post I'd be pretty happy for prospects of being able to groom by next weekend.

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, TheMainer said:

I remember an event when I was in late middle/ early high school (2002 to 2005 timeframe) that retrograded in the GOM and gave Bangor and Millinocket 18 inches and I think we got nearly whiffed in Greenville area.

If that run verifies in your post I'd be pretty happy for prospects of being able to groom by next weekend.

I think where you are should be in good shape for this one.

[Damage In Tolland]

8 minutes ago, dryslot said:

H5 track was further NW this run by a tic or two, Take a few more of these and it gets it more interesting for many.

Already is 

[Ginx snewx]

6 Z Euro with 6 to 8 right to the coast here

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Already is 

There's many more to go.

[moneypitmike]

10 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

6 Z Euro with 6 to 8 right to the coast here

Congrats to RI and New Bedford.  Boring for most.

[Ginx snewx]

Just now, moneypitmike said:

Congrats to RI and New Bedford.  Boring for most.

Queens gonna Queen 

 

[ineedsnow]

Tons of convection in the gulf this morning will be interesting to see what happens today

[ORH_wxman]

28 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Maybe , semantics . The only model I see Tuck is Reggie at 6z , tucks right into South central Jersey coast 

I’d expect the sfc low to slowly become a bit more tucked even if the upper air stays the same. That’s what I was saying before. 

Same reason we saw those suppressed runs start disappearing on the dec 16-17 threat late in the game (and they still weren’t far enough north...except some of those rgem/GGEM runs)

What I’m explaining is different than the actual stall. I’m just expecting a closer track than most guidance shows right now, but I’m guessing the stall doesn’t happen until into the Gulf of Maine. We’ve actually seen the stall trend further northeast with time as is usually the case. It’s still possible it could happen far enough southwest to impact E MA/E NH/far S ME so it’s worth watching but my guess is that the stall really only matters for Downeast. 

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I’d expect the sfc low to slowly become a bit more tucked even if the upper air stays the same. That’s what I was saying before. 

Same reason we saw those suppressed runs start disappearing on the dec 16-17 threat late in the game (and they still weren’t far enough north...except some of those rgem/GGEM runs)

What I’m explaining is different than the actual stall. I’m just expecting a closer track than most guidance shows right now, but I’m guessing the stall doesn’t happen until into the Gulf of Maine. We’ve actually seen the stall trend further northeast with time as is usually the case. It’s still possible it could happen far enough southwest to impact E MA/E NH/far S ME so it’s worth watching but my guess is that the stall really only matters for Downeast. 

Yeah euro did about what I expected. Probably another tick Nw today. Sell the stall here, maybe some flurries or might snow mid week?

[mahk_webstah]

5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I’d expect the sfc low to slowly become a bit more tucked even if the upper air stays the same. That’s what I was saying before. 

Same reason we saw those suppressed runs start disappearing on the dec 16-17 threat late in the game (and they still weren’t far enough north...except some of those rgem/GGEM runs)

What I’m explaining is different than the actual stall. I’m just expecting a closer track than most guidance shows right now, but I’m guessing the stall doesn’t happen until into the Gulf of Maine. We’ve actually seen the stall trend further northeast with time as is usually the case. It’s still possible it could happen far enough southwest to impact E MA/E NH/far S ME so it’s worth watching but my guess is that the stall really only matters for Downeast. 

Maybe a general 4-8 for many with Jeff hitting double digits.

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah euro did about what I expected. Probably another tick Nw today. Sell the stall here, maybe some flurries or might snow mid week?

Rhode Islanders lock in the RPM? 

Revenge for 3/7-8/13 

[Damage In Tolland]

It’s interesting how all guidance backs light snow into most all of New England Tuesday / Wednesday. Gotta love -NAO. Crazy things happen