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Significant upper middle Atlantic S/CNE mix/snow potential Jan 3+


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5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

It’s already come out on the cruddy maps. It’s well east of 12z. I’m still having trouble reconciling it aloft though. 

Oh ok gotcha. Too bad Weathermodels & Weatherbell don't process it around the same time it loads up on the Meteocentre page. I haven't checked that page in ages until now I just assumed they all processed once the data starts coming in.

Now knowing that disregard that 12Z map Ray. Sorry for making you relive the past lol.

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46 minutes ago, IowaStorm05 said:

I was being funny. But it WAS 43 years ago. 

I'm still here and remember it well, living in Randolph at the time.  I shoveled the driveway (thankfully much shorter than the one we have now) without the benefit of a snowblower.  That included drifts almost up to the top of the garage door.  Nothing I have experienced since has measured up to that one, and we have had some great ones.

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I really do not buy that a band as strong as the guidance shows just offshore of the National Sea Shore of the Outer Cape does not bring dynamics with it to produce heavy snowfall for the Cape and Islands.  There is enough cold air at 850mb that if the H5 low does track over ACK or just southeast, we will be in the heavy snows.  With the surface low southeast of the BM that deepens below 990mb suggests we get snow with the dynamic flip.  Sorry, a strengthening upper level low and a surface low down below 989mb to the southeast of ACK brings snow, not rain.  even the NAM came in colder.

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6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

We aren't getting a 2 foot capture....but if you reconcile that reality with the subtle, yet obvious trend tonight on the euro then more power to you.

I stand by a warning event for a good part of the region.

Screen Shot 2021-01-02 at 1.37.57 AM.png

That’s my feeling.  A moderate event for many.

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Just now, Henry's Weather said:

I'd enjoy a nice 2-4 inch event on the backside of an exiting storm. No need to go all or nothing on significant amounts every time it might snow.

Concern for some is modest rates in a marginal airmass, but cross that bridge when come to it....those are hr 12-24 issues to contend with.

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