40/70 Benchmark Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 Just now, It's Always Sunny said: Depends who jackpots lol Fraud Five Alert Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 1 minute ago, IowaStorm05 said: I may look dumb putting myself out here for this: but in the past 24-36 hours of following these runs: I remain stubborn in expecting an event. Even if it’s just 3 inches run to run to me has simply not been consistent enough to call it off at this point. I'm sure there will be an "event," it's just the heavy precip will be offshore. Some areas will get clipped with a couple inches and the Maine coast may get some extended precip deal. Bruce Willis was overreacting with the warnings. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 I certainly think there is a lot of potential here for a few reasons: 1. Norlun trough setup, so someone could certainly get a crush job 2. Coastal cut-off --> long duration snow event 3. Firehose potential perhaps? Curious to see what others think I'm definitely intrigued by it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 Give Bruce a chance as we saw what happened two weeks ago when Brian got 34”. There may be some energy ahead of it that models are keying on, but I’d like to see a few more runs before writing anything off. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 1 minute ago, It's Always Sunny said: I certainly think there is a lot of potential here for a few reasons: 1. Norlun trough setup, so someone could certainly get a crush job 2. Coastal cut-off --> long duration snow event 3. Firehose potential perhaps? Curious to see what others think I'm definitely intrigued by it I have more interest in my daughter's shitty diaper than playing pin the tale on the mythical make believe norlun. I still think this comes NW, though....not a blizzard, but a decent event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny Boy Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 44 minutes ago, IowaStorm05 said: The people of the 78 blizzard are long dead. Long dead? We are talking 1978 not 1878 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 37 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: The weekly Jimmy, “I deserve a 50” jack”. FYP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: I have more interest in my daughter's shitty diaper than playing pin the tale on the mythical make believe norlun. Lol! I've done enough diaper changes today this is much more entertaining. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 40 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: The annual Jimmy, “I deserve a 50” jack”. I’m pretty sure he had like 30+ inches not even 6 years ago? Lol Tough sledding on the outer cape... but pound for pound, he’s done as good as anyone over the last decade or two. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 4 minutes ago, Sunny Boy said: Long dead? We are talking 1978 not 1878 Lol...he’s getting high on his supply. I was 10 in 78, I’m still here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IowaStorm05 Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Lol...he’s getting high on his supply. I was 10 in 78, I’m still here. I was being funny. But it WAS 43 years ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Give Bruce a chance as we saw what happened two weeks ago when Brian got 34”. There may be some energy ahead of it that models are keying on, but I’d like to see a few more runs before writing anything off. Yeah I'm definitely not sold on these near-whiffs. I'm not telling people to expect these obscene amounts, but that baroclinic leaf is likely to be further NW than many show unless we see changes aloft. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 Just now, IowaStorm05 said: I was being funny. But it WAS 42 years ago. I get it..but I remember it well. It was a quite a storm. If we can pick up 1-3” with this I’d be fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDRY Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 The follow-up system looking mighty suspect as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah I'm definitely not sold on these near-whiffs. I'm not telling people to expect these obscene amounts, but that baroclinic leaf is likely to be further NW than many show unless we see changes aloft. Why are the models all showing a surface depiction weak and SE with the upper air setup still suggesting a more NW solution? Just weird that they are all SE now, we don't have any weenie runs left. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah I'm definitely not sold on these near-whiffs. I'm not telling people to expect these obscene amounts, but that baroclinic leaf is likely to be further NW than many show unless we see changes aloft. If this thing ticks NW just a bit coastal MA is right back in it. Still lots for models to resolve especially with these cutoff events they're tricky to pin down sometimes as you know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 9 hours ago, PhineasC said: One of the two camps will fold like a cheap lawn chair at 00z. Always hard to bet against the Euro, but it seems so wacky lately. The King still reigns in this land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IowaStorm05 Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah I'm definitely not sold on these near-whiffs. I'm not telling people to expect these obscene amounts, but that baroclinic leaf is likely to be further NW than many show unless we see changes aloft. Yea, don't expect 1-2', but 6" is doable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IowaStorm05 Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 My NWS forecast still calls for RAIN with this. Call me crazy but for recent years I’ve relied on model runs right up to the event for winter wx. Because NWS forecasts, by the time they’re compiled, are old by the time they launch and then they age 12 hours more by the time the next package comes out. theyre still essential for the masses, but yeah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 4 minutes ago, PhineasC said: Why are the models all showing a surface depiction weak and SE with the upper air setup still suggesting a more NW solution? Just weird that they are all SE now, we don't have any weenie runs left. A couple reasons....the models often focus on the sfc baroclinic zone which starts well SE of the ULL....but typically, the ULL will "tug" it northwest with time....in this case, they may be keying on little piece of energy embedded in the flow ahead of the main vortmax or convection which doesn't allow it to get yanked NW. The second reason is the models often underdo the actual vortmax strength in my experience. It will get stronger as we approach verification. They seem to weaken or damp them out too quickly. That said, the E models could be right. I'm not totally dismissing them. I'm just being skeptical of them. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 There's always the Ukie: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 1 minute ago, It's Always Sunny said: There's always the Ukie: Looks pretty far east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: A couple reasons....the models often focus on the sfc baroclinic zone which starts well SE of the ULL....but typically, the ULL will "tug" it northwest with time....in this case, they may be keying on little piece of energy embedded in the flow ahead of the main vortmax or convection which doesn't allow it to get yanked NW. The second reason is the models often underdo the actual vortmax strength in my experience. It will get stronger as we approach verification. They seem to weaken or damp them out too quickly. That said, the E models could be right. I'm not totally dismissing them. I'm just being skeptical of them. It's definitely interesting, I have already noticed up here that the usual situations where I would throw in the towel in MD on getting snow can be overcome up here. Things seem a lot more volatile around here on the models with these coastals. Big shifts are the norm. Still time to fix things. Hopefully a solid 06z jump NW which leads to a 12z return for everyone. Seems to be a classic routine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 1 hour ago, NorEastermass128 said: Exhibit A....Jerry. I get the reference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IowaStorm05 Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 Once in like Feb 2002 we were suppose to get 1-3 inches of snow in Westerly; right up to the event but the event missed us and the snow stayed offshore to the south. Anyone remember that? random I know but it was a memory from my glory days of being 17 but the winter of 2001-2002, my first in Southern New England, was a total DUD for south coast. 4 inches total of snow for the season IIRC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 4 minutes ago, It's Always Sunny said: There's always the Ukie: It'll be nailing the Azores soon. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 GEM pretty much looks like my First Call map now...really toned it down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Looks pretty far east Looks good for your backyard, and it is currently better than the other models that I've looked at so far. SE MA & Cape still out of the mix though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 Just now, It's Always Sunny said: Looks good for your backyard, and it is currently better than the other models that I've looked at so far. SE MA & Cape still out of the mix though. 12z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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