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Significant upper middle Atlantic S/CNE mix/snow potential Jan 3+


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10 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Kind of amazing how differently models are handling the evolution of the upper air low even 48-60 hours out. 

And also how difficult it is to prognosticate based on upstream features...

Usually we can make predictions "this run will be better/worse based on x"...  I haven't followed as closely, but this event is so dependent on tiny nuances of position and timing of a capture, and it's more difficult to pick up trends and key determinants. You could see 0z Nam would be further southeast with best baroclinicity farther out, but it still captures and loops back to hit ME.

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I am sorry, but the SE MA and RI areas that missed out on the 78 Blizzard amounts need this one to materialize.  It would never be on the 78 Blizzard's level intensity wise, but the models show us every new run that there is a Quebec High present that keeps the northerly component to the surface winds west of the surface low.  That should keep the dynamics in play and allow the coastal plain to be heavy snows.

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1 minute ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

I am sorry, but the SE MA and RI areas that missed out on the 78 Blizzard amounts need this one to materialize.  It would never be on the 78 Blizzard's level intensity wise, but the models show us every new run that there is a Quebec High present that keeps the northerly component to the surface winds west of the surface low.  That should keep the dynamics in play and allow the coastal plain to be heavy snows.

Wait, what?

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1 minute ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

Yeah I meant, the Cape and Islands got screwed with the 1978 Blizzard, we got six inches and the sun came out and turned to rain and 50 F.  I mean the winds were ferocious, but I would like at least one time, my area gets the Jackpot of 40"

There aren't enough buns...you want retribution for a screwjob 15 years before you were born?

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