ORH_wxman Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 5 minutes ago, PhineasC said: Do you guys still think NW and warmer is the bigger risk than OTS on this...? Yes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IowaStorm05 Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Its because they are right. I’m incapable of caring until the 18z Euro and 00z suite roll out. Canadian and others have shifted SE so it would be too cruel if the GFS simultaneously picked up on something signaling warmer solutions, which clearly it did. It’s just not trustworthy yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 7 minutes ago, PhineasC said: Do you guys still think NW and warmer is the bigger risk than OTS on this...? Absolutely not. Too far OTS is always the biggest risk in coastal storms for the interior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 5 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Toss the nam fast instead... Oh ya. 1-3 is a good call. Lame but it at least will cover the grass...I hope? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 Just now, 78Blizzard said: Worse for us than 12z run. I thought it looked among the better runs for us of the 18z runs. Verbatim run to run kind of clouds ones judgment. To me we’re still far enough out where minor differences are reasonable but we need some help given marginal temperatures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 Just now, powderfreak said: Absolutely not. Too far SE is always the biggest risk in coastal storms for the interior. I think he was asking from our point of view further south. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 Farther NW would mean coast has ptype issues. The block won’t allow a move NW 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 Some of you are living and dying by each run. Maybe not a canal crawler, but I think the risk is NW of euro etc. We saw the same a couple of weeks ago. Euro will probably start creeping NW tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said: You'd get like a foot-plus? What's wrong with that More like 7" for me on the NAM FYI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 WPC likes Berks to W monads to Phin but not a major storm. Moderate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: More like 7" FYI. Unless we do big banding I see crap temps for 495 being a concern . Further South on CP is all but toast unless they see a perfect track and capture with mid level goodies. I would want to be at least 500’ for more than 2-3” and I believe this SLP is likely more a hugger Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Farther NW would mean coast has ptype issues. The block won’t allow a move NW Doesn’t have to move NW to get a more tucked track. Just look at 18z NAM. You just need a more defined vortmax...ULL track and vortmax track are already plenty far enough NW for a hugger type solution. It’s just a matter of capturing that sfc baroclinicity early enough. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: No, I’m sure some sort of a compromise. A better one would be a NAM/Euro compromise which would be just about where the RGEM is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Farther NW would mean coast has ptype issues. The block won’t allow a move NW I don’t think you’re correct on that NW idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 Just now, CoastalWx said: Some of you are living and dying by each run. Maybe not a canal crawler, but I think the risk is NW of euro etc. We saw the same a couple of weeks ago. Euro will probably start creeping NW tonight. I agree. I'm not worried about OTS....larger concern is a later capture. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Doesn’t have to move NW to get a more tucked track. Just look at 18z NAM. You just need a more defined vortmax...ULL track and vortmax track are already plenty far enough NW for a hugger type solution. It’s just a matter of capturing that sfc baroclinicity early enough. Exactly the issue...it ill probably happen to late for most of us. We'll see...just my hunch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 There is a lot of ways for this to produce nothing here. The airmass is absolute garbage for starters, so if you aren’t in the best dynamics (especially in this area) it’s not going to cut it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 Just now, WinterWolf said: I don’t think you’re correct on that NW idea. They’re referring to the op Euro. For your area you want a bump NW on Euro 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Some of you are living and dying by each run. Maybe not a canal crawler, but I think the risk is NW of euro etc. We saw the same a couple of weeks ago. Euro will probably start creeping NW tonight. Why is the Euro creeping NW a risk? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I think he was asking from our point of view further south. Ha! Lol I thought it was for him. I was like Randolph shouldn’t worry about a warmer solution. If it’s metro west, then yeah always worry about rain more than whiff. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 Should be a nice event around here. Mild mannered. One you could introduce to your mom 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 Just now, 78Blizzard said: Why is the Euro creeping NW a risk? Risk, meaning a possibility. Not that I meant it in a bad way or anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Unless we do big banding I see crap temps for 495 being a concern . Further South on CP is all but toast unless they see a perfect track and capture with mid level goodies. I would want to be at least 500’ for more than 2-3” Exactly...it will take a near perfect RGEM like evolution for our area to get nailed, or else we get hosed again. I do not buy the retarded clown maps if we don't end up in the mid level banding. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 Just now, powderfreak said: Ha! Lol I thought it was for him. I was like Randolph shouldn’t worry about a warmer solution. If it’s metro west, then yeah always worry about rain more than whiff. Not necessarily. There’s plenty of storms I’ll worry more about a scraper or whiff than an amped solution. This is definitely not one of them despite seeing several weak SE solutions on the euro. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Farther NW would mean coast has ptype issues. The block won’t allow a move NW They’ll be Ptype issues no matter what, which is expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: They’re referring to the op Euro. For your area you want a bump NW on Euro We want that Vortmax going under us and then getting captured earlier. If that doesn’t happen..it’s a minor event at best if we’re lucky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 Just now, WinterWolf said: We want that Vortmax going under us and then getting captured earlier. If that doesn’t happen..it’s a minor event at best if we’re lucky. Yes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 Just now, WinterWolf said: We want that Vortmax going under us and then getting captured earlier. If that doesn’t happen..it’s a minor event at best if we’re lucky. For Kevin it could easily be an advisory 3-6” event if there’s no earlier capture...he’s interior and elevated enough that it will snow with the residual WAA stuff on the front end. This airmass isn’t as bad as Dec 5th...there’s at least some dry dewpoint drain from that high to the north. If closer to the coast with little elevation then I’d want the rates to pound more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 1, 2021 Author Share Posted January 1, 2021 Middling climo cyclone; higher impact snow because of wet heavy nature; duration augmenting - nothing's changed - 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 For those wondering, this confirms why I was not a fan of the NAM. It is NOT 12" or more like the crack clowns suggest. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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