Damage In Tolland Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 1 minute ago, weathafella said: About what? Rains to Maine’s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Maine ftw. Screw them They don't need snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Caution flags....upper level track is really far west, even on v16 GFS and Ukie. Now maybe we get a ULL track more like GGEM or regular GFS, but until the other guidance shows that is more likely, I have the alarm antennae up. Btw, this is the same reason I was confident the Dec 16-17 wasn't going to be suppressed. Despite some of the Euro runs struggling to get the goods north of the pike, it had the vortmax tracking through east-central PA and LI/SE MA....that is not a suppressed look at all. So unless that part was wrong (which is less likely since models score higher on upper air features than sfc), it was going to come NW. This is just the same thing but further west than that. You have a potent vortmax/ULL swinging up into W NY and SE Canada. That is not a snowstorm look even into a chunk of CNE/NNE. Now, it could be wrong, or you get enough of a redevelopment lobe to the SE (Ukie tries to do this and GGEM does it even better), but there is reason to be cautious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Rains to Maine’s No need to worry when that’s the pre set default until the pattern changes which should happen. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Caution flags....upper level track is really far west, even on v16 GFS and Ukie. Now maybe we get a ULL track more like GGEM or regular GFS, but until the other guidance shows that is more likely, I have the alarm antennae up. seems like we deal with what is in front of us Friday night/Sat and see if that can have some suppressive effect. Might not resolve until we have a better sense on Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 The 12z Euro is awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 Hemispheric correction vectors are suggestive of further positive cryospheric outcomes at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 4 minutes ago, weathafella said: No need to worry when that’s the pre set default until the pattern changes which should happen. When Will is calling for rain.. we are in trouble. Snow fail Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 5 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Screw them They don't need snow Shouldn't you be posting in the NY thread? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 1 minute ago, mahk_webstah said: seems like we deal with what is in front of us Friday night/Sat and see if that can have some suppressive effect. Might not resolve until we have a better sense on Friday. Yeah it could definitely come in more favorable....some large scale pieces are there for a good system as Tip already has outlined. But there are some details that can screw it up. Especially since we are dealing with such a marginal airmass. If we had a legit airmass in place...not even arctic...but like an antecedent airmass of, say, -6C 850, then it would be different and more wiggle room. The colder airmass also provides more resistance even aloft, so you promote redevelopment....it's a feedback of sorts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 If this can’t produce much in sne let’s get it to setup shop as a nice trapped 50/50. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 30, 2020 Author Share Posted December 30, 2020 It may be the down stream handling of the flow ... It really appears to me like previous solution "force" an initially less than ideal S/W south, because of 'emerging' down stream blocking - like the former 'senses' the forcing ( previous runs ...) before it actually is there, and then it is ..and it makes sense that a vortex is situated between CC and NS... In this run, down stream delays just a bit and that delays the south suppression - But actually looking at this again .. .I think the impulse Will's noting there is being corrected perhaps too deep ...owing to what the Euro likes to do with S/W in this time range... and what that does is lifts the lead wave N...effectively detaching it from the baroclinic field along the MA --> weaker low in a marginal atmosphere heads this in the wrong direction. This run is mutable in my estimation - no worries... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 It is only the Euro op doing this though. So it could just be that and with everything else crushing us.. we could toss it. Especially if the EPS continues the crush Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah it could definitely come in more favorable....some large scale pieces are there for a good system as Tip already has outlined. But there are some details that can screw it up. Especially since we are dealing with such a marginal airmass. If we had a legit airmass in place...not even arctic...but like an antecedent airmass of, say, -6C 850, then it would be different and more wiggle room. The colder airmass also provides more resistance even aloft, so you promote redevelopment....it's a feedback of sorts. It does try to get a lobe going under us near hr 114, but the airmass is so toasted with a shitty high sort of retreating again. So basically we’ll need that lobe to really eject off to the east, and then you hope winds turn NE-N with cooler air in the low levels and thickness crashing and height falls aloft. Not always a good combo to bank on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 Or perhaps guidance like the op run is just not going to figure out this s/w dance for a couple of days and we’ll have some more run to run changes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 Another Miller B on the 8th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: Another Miller B on the 8th Another shit airmass. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alex Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 21 minutes ago, PhineasC said: The 12z Euro is awesome. Awesomer than the 0Z? Because that was pretty dreamy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 Just now, alex said: Awesomer than the 0Z? Because that was pretty dreamy No, not as good on the snow maps but this thread had me worried it looked like crap here until I checked. I think we are still in good shape for this event but there could be trouble south of here, like in the early December storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 EPS still has the s/w pretty far west and the low tied to the baroclinic zone near the EC. It does try for that lobe to eject out with cyclogenesis south of LI. But we may toast 850 on down for awhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 Ironically the airmass for the mixed deal is better than this one to start out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 Just now, CoastalWx said: EPS still has the s/w pretty far west and the low tied to the baroclinic zone near the EC. It does try for that lobe to eject out with cyclogenesis south of LI. But we may toast 850 on down for awhile.u Want the lobe to redevelop sooner before the WAA taints everything. Ukie barely did this. GGEM was more successful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Want the lobe to redevelop sooner before the WAA taints everything. Ukie barely did this. GGEM was more successful. Not so much here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 34 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Btw, this is the same reason I was confident the Dec 16-17 wasn't going to be suppressed. Despite some of the Euro runs struggling to get the goods north of the pike, it had the vortmax tracking through east-central PA and LI/SE MA....that is not a suppressed look at all. So unless that part was wrong (which is less likely since models score higher on upper air features than sfc), it was going to come NW. This is just the same thing but further west than that. You have a potent vortmax/ULL swinging up into W NY and SE Canada. That is not a snowstorm look even into a chunk of CNE/NNE. Now, it could be wrong, or you get enough of a redevelopment lobe to the SE (Ukie tries to do this and GGEM does it even better), but there is reason to be cautious. Sell that event. Still don't see much to be excited about...yet. We wait. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 30, 2020 Author Share Posted December 30, 2020 this run is behaving strangely .. It's trying to maintain the previous super-structure surrounding the advent of the NAO mode change throughout the D5-10 range of the run, but unlike prior solutions ...it keeps the 40 N train of waves moving at Maglev velocities ... That's buckin' for a progressive and retrograde pattern simultaneously - .. at least in concept. I'd be happier if this model would pick either rather than doing this ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 Well either way, get the snow where it needs to be first. Lay the foundation down when we get the blocking (hopefully) and Scooter HP nosing in that cold over the natural refrigeration. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 30, 2020 Author Share Posted December 30, 2020 'Course ... I will be the first to admit, 'live by the NAO die by the NAO' ... Not a huge personal fan of it as being as significantly 'forcing' - I still think a -NAO is equivalent to an "indirect Pacific" ...in that, the latter instructs the former, which then parlays in activity in that order ... but I don't wanna get beat up over it either . The 29th - if anyone recalls ... - had a promising look at D7 or so, but it too was contingent over the NAO's blossoming, which it was in the runs at that time.. But, every cycle immediately ensuing thereafter, gradually took more and more of the western oriented blocking off the charts .. until actually the opposite remained, and the 29th lost out in the shuffle... I dunno - it's a tough stochastic domain ... It's like the only field on Earth where the models can be wrong about a thousand*trillion tons of atmosphere in a single cycle ...massively changing its mode characteristic as a surgically intended strike on sanity ... heh Nah, but I think this has legs, this mode change.. that AO is dramatic and shares a large amount of NOA domain space.. Plus, this sort of concerts with the EPS previous NAO downward movement - it's been in the airs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Well either way, get the snow where it needs to be first. Lay the foundation down when we get the blocking (hopefully) and Scooter HP nosing in that cold over the natural refrigeration. I feel like anything we can grab before 1/10 is a bonus. 1/4 can definitely produce (esp interior), but there's not much wiggle room. There may be another shot around 1/7-9 or so. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Well either way, get the snow where it needs to be first. Lay the foundation down when we get the blocking (hopefully) and Scooter HP nosing in that cold over the natural refrigeration. Yea, I like what I see for later in January, but I feel like impatience may breed frustration for some. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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