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Significant upper middle Atlantic S/CNE mix/snow potential Jan 3+


Typhoon Tip
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1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

This is warning level paste for anyone 10 miles away from water 

This whole thing could just as easily fail for most of us, and then muck up the next potential. Ultimately screwing the pooch for anything much.  I think we can see where that is a possibility.   Hope it doesn’t play out Like that...but it could. 

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Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Why can’t you ever just get amped and excited and get folks riled up? Why do you always have to make everything seem boring. All work no play makes Jack a dull boy. At least acknowledge good chances of 6+ over a wide region of SNE 

My job is to get the forecast right, not to give a few weenies a pants tent. 

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1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Why can’t you ever just get amped and excited and get folks riled up? Why do you always have to make everything seem boring. All work no play makes Jack a dull boy. At least acknowledge good chances of 6+ over a wide region of SNE 

I mean does this really look like 6+ for most of SNE?  I’m not seeing that yet?  But maybe that’s just me?  I hope you’re right, but this is far from figured out at this point imo. 

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KLEW   GFSX MOS GUIDANCE   1/01/2021  1200 UTC                       
 FHR  24  36| 48  60| 72  84| 96 108|120 132|144 156|168 180|192      
      SAT 02| SUN 03| MON 04| TUE 05| WED 06| THU 07| FRI 08|SAT CLIMO
 N/X  24  38| 18  35| 23  31| 26  35| 26  34| 21  32| 16  30| 15 12 30
 TMP  29  32| 20  28| 25  29| 28  31| 28  30| 24  26| 18  25| 18      
 DPT  26  24| 15  21| 23  26| 23  27| 24  23| 18  17| 12  15| 12      
 CLD  OV  OV| CL  OV| OV  OV| OV  OV| OV  OV| OV  PC| PC  OV| PC      
 WND   6  12| 12   5|  6  17| 17  15| 10  15| 10  12|  7   9|  9      
 P12  86 100|  2  13| 58  88| 80  73| 43  31| 28  23| 17  21| 23999999
 P24     100|     13|     92|     80|     55|     31|     28|      999
 Q12   2   3|  0   0|  1   4|  3   3|  1   0|  0   0|       |         
 Q24       4|      0|      4|      4|      1|      0|       |         
 T12   0   0|  0   0|  1   0|  0   1|  0   0|  0   1|  0   0|  0      
 T24        |  2    |  1    |  0    |  1    |  1    |  1    |  1      
 PZP   7  16|  0   2|  5   6| 24  19| 14  14| 14  16| 13  13| 14      
 PSN  79  18| 76  85| 76  63| 39  40| 32  35| 46  49| 70  78| 74      
 PRS   0  16| 11   3|  8  20| 27  28| 24  27| 22  21| 10   8|  9      
 TYP   S  RS|  S   S|  S   S|  Z   S| RS   S|  S   Z|  S   Z|  Z      
 SNW       4|      0|      8|      6|      1|      1|       |         

 

A few mothafukkers in there.

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11 minutes ago, dryslot said:

KLEW   GFSX MOS GUIDANCE   1/01/2021  1200 UTC                       
 FHR  24  36| 48  60| 72  84| 96 108|120 132|144 156|168 180|192      
      SAT 02| SUN 03| MON 04| TUE 05| WED 06| THU 07| FRI 08|SAT CLIMO
 N/X  24  38| 18  35| 23  31| 26  35| 26  34| 21  32| 16  30| 15 12 30
 TMP  29  32| 20  28| 25  29| 28  31| 28  30| 24  26| 18  25| 18      
 DPT  26  24| 15  21| 23  26| 23  27| 24  23| 18  17| 12  15| 12      
 CLD  OV  OV| CL  OV| OV  OV| OV  OV| OV  OV| OV  PC| PC  OV| PC      
 WND   6  12| 12   5|  6  17| 17  15| 10  15| 10  12|  7   9|  9      
 P12  86 100|  2  13| 58  88| 80  73| 43  31| 28  23| 17  21| 23999999
 P24     100|     13|     92|     80|     55|     31|     28|      999
 Q12   2   3|  0   0|  1   4|  3   3|  1   0|  0   0|       |         
 Q24       4|      0|      4|      4|      1|      0|       |         
 T12   0   0|  0   0|  1   0|  0   1|  0   0|  0   1|  0   0|  0      
 T24        |  2    |  1    |  0    |  1    |  1    |  1    |  1      
 PZP   7  16|  0   2|  5   6| 24  19| 14  14| 14  16| 13  13| 14      
 PSN  79  18| 76  85| 76  63| 39  40| 32  35| 46  49| 70  78| 74      
 PRS   0  16| 11   3|  8  20| 27  28| 24  27| 22  21| 10   8|  9      
 TYP   S  RS|  S   S|  S   S|  Z   S| RS   S|  S   Z|  S   Z|  Z      
 SNW       4|      0|      8|      6|      1|      1|       |         

 

A few mothafukkers in there.

I don't see MFK in that first column

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51 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I was thinking the same thing...sell that post occlusion 6-10" over SNE.

Well...  mind you, I'm speaking in deference to that solution - I suspect you are too but the reader may think that's the call ...

Not ready to sign off on this outlier antic by the Euro ... It could be right.  It's got some variance circumstance that offers more reasons than usual to doubt.

Not to be a hypocrite:  I have averred in the past that the Euro is not that bad inside of D4.5 and it should be factored more so than not.  *However, this situation is a bit unique for the fact that -NAO and really ...entire hemispheric scope is 'uncharted model performance' territory - even for the Euro..  

NAOs are notoriously fickle beasts ...

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I also would like to paraphrase/re-iterate:

for now 33 to 44th percentile cyclone relative to New England storm climatology.  However, its impact modulated perhaps more so by snow type, and duration.

That's the overall look of this.   We could snow 9" of blue bomb snow, and that's a siggy problem, and then if it protracts over more intervals for another bit it's ... It's sort of over-achieving in that sense.

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55 minutes ago, dryslot said:

KLEW   GFSX MOS GUIDANCE   1/01/2021  1200 UTC                       
 FHR  24  36| 48  60| 72  84| 96 108|120 132|144 156|168 180|192      
      SAT 02| SUN 03| MON 04| TUE 05| WED 06| THU 07| FRI 08|SAT CLIMO
 N/X  24  38| 18  35| 23  31| 26  35| 26  34| 21  32| 16  30| 15 12 30
 TMP  29  32| 20  28| 25  29| 28  31| 28  30| 24  26| 18  25| 18      
 DPT  26  24| 15  21| 23  26| 23  27| 24  23| 18  17| 12  15| 12      
 CLD  OV  OV| CL  OV| OV  OV| OV  OV| OV  OV| OV  PC| PC  OV| PC      
 WND   6  12| 12   5|  6  17| 17  15| 10  15| 10  12|  7   9|  9      
 P12  86 100|  2  13| 58  88| 80  73| 43  31| 28  23| 17  21| 23999999
 P24     100|     13|     92|     80|     55|     31|     28|      999
 Q12   2   3|  0   0|  1   4|  3   3|  1   0|  0   0|       |         
 Q24       4|      0|      4|      4|      1|      0|       |         
 T12   0   0|  0   0|  1   0|  0   1|  0   0|  0   1|  0   0|  0      
 T24        |  2    |  1    |  0    |  1    |  1    |  1    |  1      
 PZP   7  16|  0   2|  5   6| 24  19| 14  14| 14  16| 13  13| 14      
 PSN  79  18| 76  85| 76  63| 39  40| 32  35| 46  49| 70  78| 74      
 PRS   0  16| 11   3|  8  20| 27  28| 24  27| 22  21| 10   8|  9      
 TYP   S  RS|  S   S|  S   S|  Z   S| RS   S|  S   Z|  S   Z|  Z      
 SNW       4|      0|      8|      6|      1|      1|       |         

 

A few mothafukkers in there.

Muthufukka approved!   How do we get a muthufukka emoji?    I guess that would not end well....

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30 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I also would like to paraphrase/re-iterate:

for now 33 to 44th percentile cyclone relative to New England storm climatology.  However, its impact modulated perhaps more so by snow type, and duration.

That's the overall look of this.   We could snow 9" of blue bomb snow, and that's a siggy problem, and then if it protracts over more intervals for another bit it's ... It's sort of over-achieving in that sense.

why 33 to 44th percentile? do mets use 1/9ths instead of deciles? lol

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