Heisy Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 Feels like I’ve been tracking this event for 2 months. Hard to bet against the euro, but it has caved before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 Nice to see some arctic air show up in Euro fantasy land. Folks can have their blocking I'll take a cold air mass and my chances from there. Hopefully it's onto something. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IowaStorm05 Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 1 minute ago, Henry's Weather said: Remember when weak La Nina meant clippers? Exhausting to track coastal after coastal. 2003-2004 was like that. Major coastal in December but Late Jan thru February was clippers that would drop 2-4 inches and favor coastal areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 11 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Personally, I'd rather this one never capture and just get the fu@# out. I'd gladly trade the 4" of fluff for the whole system to disappear. This is warning level paste for anyone 10 miles away from water 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PWMan Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 11 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Personally, I'd rather this one never capture and just get the fu@# out. I'd gladly trade the 4" of fluff for the whole system to disappear. I’m glad you’re not handling the negotiations. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: This is warning level paste for anyone 10 miles away from water Crippling ice and now crippling paste. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Crippling ice and now crippling paste. Why can’t you ever just get amped and excited and get folks riled up? Why do you always have to make everything seem boring. All work no play makes Jack a dull boy. At least acknowledge good chances of 6+ over a wide region of SNE 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Crippling ice and now crippling paste. The only crippling is going to be from the bong hits. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: This is warning level paste for anyone 10 miles away from water This whole thing could just as easily fail for most of us, and then muck up the next potential. Ultimately screwing the pooch for anything much. I think we can see where that is a possibility. Hope it doesn’t play out Like that...but it could. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Why can’t you ever just get amped and excited and get folks riled up? Why do you always have to make everything seem boring. All work no play makes Jack a dull boy. At least acknowledge good chances of 6+ over a wide region of SNE My job is to get the forecast right, not to give a few weenies a pants tent. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 23 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: Nice start for the lucky few. Wrong storm thread but maybe indicative of each storm by the time they play out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 Just now, CoastalWx said: My job is to get the forecast right, not to give a few weenies a pants tent. The forecast is not no snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: The forecast is not no snow The forecast is all over, but I’m not sold on big snow over SNE. However, I think the euro is too paltry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Why can’t you ever just get amped and excited and get folks riled up? Why do you always have to make everything seem boring. All work no play makes Jack a dull boy. At least acknowledge good chances of 6+ over a wide region of SNE I mean does this really look like 6+ for most of SNE? I’m not seeing that yet? But maybe that’s just me? I hope you’re right, but this is far from figured out at this point imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: The forecast is all over, but I’m not sold on big snow over SNE. However, I think the euro is too paltry. I didn’t say big snow. But certainly 6+ of paste is legit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: My job is to get the forecast right, not to give a few weenies a pants tent. Get out there and shovel your dreams! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 KLEW GFSX MOS GUIDANCE 1/01/2021 1200 UTC FHR 24 36| 48 60| 72 84| 96 108|120 132|144 156|168 180|192 SAT 02| SUN 03| MON 04| TUE 05| WED 06| THU 07| FRI 08|SAT CLIMO N/X 24 38| 18 35| 23 31| 26 35| 26 34| 21 32| 16 30| 15 12 30 TMP 29 32| 20 28| 25 29| 28 31| 28 30| 24 26| 18 25| 18 DPT 26 24| 15 21| 23 26| 23 27| 24 23| 18 17| 12 15| 12 CLD OV OV| CL OV| OV OV| OV OV| OV OV| OV PC| PC OV| PC WND 6 12| 12 5| 6 17| 17 15| 10 15| 10 12| 7 9| 9 P12 86 100| 2 13| 58 88| 80 73| 43 31| 28 23| 17 21| 23999999 P24 100| 13| 92| 80| 55| 31| 28| 999 Q12 2 3| 0 0| 1 4| 3 3| 1 0| 0 0| | Q24 4| 0| 4| 4| 1| 0| | T12 0 0| 0 0| 1 0| 0 1| 0 0| 0 1| 0 0| 0 T24 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 PZP 7 16| 0 2| 5 6| 24 19| 14 14| 14 16| 13 13| 14 PSN 79 18| 76 85| 76 63| 39 40| 32 35| 46 49| 70 78| 74 PRS 0 16| 11 3| 8 20| 27 28| 24 27| 22 21| 10 8| 9 TYP S RS| S S| S S| Z S| RS S| S Z| S Z| Z SNW 4| 0| 8| 6| 1| 1| | A few mothafukkers in there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 6 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Get out there and shovel your dreams! I’m already cramped up from doing so. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitzbuhel Craver Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 This has ENE/DE Maine written all over it. Most likely, quite pedestrian down this way. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 11 minutes ago, dryslot said: KLEW GFSX MOS GUIDANCE 1/01/2021 1200 UTC FHR 24 36| 48 60| 72 84| 96 108|120 132|144 156|168 180|192 SAT 02| SUN 03| MON 04| TUE 05| WED 06| THU 07| FRI 08|SAT CLIMO N/X 24 38| 18 35| 23 31| 26 35| 26 34| 21 32| 16 30| 15 12 30 TMP 29 32| 20 28| 25 29| 28 31| 28 30| 24 26| 18 25| 18 DPT 26 24| 15 21| 23 26| 23 27| 24 23| 18 17| 12 15| 12 CLD OV OV| CL OV| OV OV| OV OV| OV OV| OV PC| PC OV| PC WND 6 12| 12 5| 6 17| 17 15| 10 15| 10 12| 7 9| 9 P12 86 100| 2 13| 58 88| 80 73| 43 31| 28 23| 17 21| 23999999 P24 100| 13| 92| 80| 55| 31| 28| 999 Q12 2 3| 0 0| 1 4| 3 3| 1 0| 0 0| | Q24 4| 0| 4| 4| 1| 0| | T12 0 0| 0 0| 1 0| 0 1| 0 0| 0 1| 0 0| 0 T24 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 PZP 7 16| 0 2| 5 6| 24 19| 14 14| 14 16| 13 13| 14 PSN 79 18| 76 85| 76 63| 39 40| 32 35| 46 49| 70 78| 74 PRS 0 16| 11 3| 8 20| 27 28| 24 27| 22 21| 10 8| 9 TYP S RS| S S| S S| Z S| RS S| S Z| S Z| Z SNW 4| 0| 8| 6| 1| 1| | A few mothafukkers in there. I don't see MFK in that first column Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 26 minutes ago, PWMan said: I’m glad you’re not handling the negotiations. Don't blame you in Maine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Don't blame you in Maine I’m amped Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 1, 2021 Author Share Posted January 1, 2021 51 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I was thinking the same thing...sell that post occlusion 6-10" over SNE. Well... mind you, I'm speaking in deference to that solution - I suspect you are too but the reader may think that's the call ... Not ready to sign off on this outlier antic by the Euro ... It could be right. It's got some variance circumstance that offers more reasons than usual to doubt. Not to be a hypocrite: I have averred in the past that the Euro is not that bad inside of D4.5 and it should be factored more so than not. *However, this situation is a bit unique for the fact that -NAO and really ...entire hemispheric scope is 'uncharted model performance' territory - even for the Euro.. NAOs are notoriously fickle beasts ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowderBeard Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 42 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 1, 2021 Author Share Posted January 1, 2021 I also would like to paraphrase/re-iterate: for now 33 to 44th percentile cyclone relative to New England storm climatology. However, its impact modulated perhaps more so by snow type, and duration. That's the overall look of this. We could snow 9" of blue bomb snow, and that's a siggy problem, and then if it protracts over more intervals for another bit it's ... It's sort of over-achieving in that sense. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 6 minutes ago, PowderBeard said: He’s saying it’s a god thing. Saying caution is for a bigger robust deal since ULL out under Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 50 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Get out there and shovel your dreams! I'm still shoveling potential from last season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 3 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said: I'm still shoveling potential from last season That's what happens. If you don't keep up on it your hopes and dreams will end up frozen to the driveway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 55 minutes ago, dryslot said: KLEW GFSX MOS GUIDANCE 1/01/2021 1200 UTC FHR 24 36| 48 60| 72 84| 96 108|120 132|144 156|168 180|192 SAT 02| SUN 03| MON 04| TUE 05| WED 06| THU 07| FRI 08|SAT CLIMO N/X 24 38| 18 35| 23 31| 26 35| 26 34| 21 32| 16 30| 15 12 30 TMP 29 32| 20 28| 25 29| 28 31| 28 30| 24 26| 18 25| 18 DPT 26 24| 15 21| 23 26| 23 27| 24 23| 18 17| 12 15| 12 CLD OV OV| CL OV| OV OV| OV OV| OV OV| OV PC| PC OV| PC WND 6 12| 12 5| 6 17| 17 15| 10 15| 10 12| 7 9| 9 P12 86 100| 2 13| 58 88| 80 73| 43 31| 28 23| 17 21| 23999999 P24 100| 13| 92| 80| 55| 31| 28| 999 Q12 2 3| 0 0| 1 4| 3 3| 1 0| 0 0| | Q24 4| 0| 4| 4| 1| 0| | T12 0 0| 0 0| 1 0| 0 1| 0 0| 0 1| 0 0| 0 T24 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 PZP 7 16| 0 2| 5 6| 24 19| 14 14| 14 16| 13 13| 14 PSN 79 18| 76 85| 76 63| 39 40| 32 35| 46 49| 70 78| 74 PRS 0 16| 11 3| 8 20| 27 28| 24 27| 22 21| 10 8| 9 TYP S RS| S S| S S| Z S| RS S| S Z| S Z| Z SNW 4| 0| 8| 6| 1| 1| | A few mothafukkers in there. Muthufukka approved! How do we get a muthufukka emoji? I guess that would not end well.... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 30 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: I also would like to paraphrase/re-iterate: for now 33 to 44th percentile cyclone relative to New England storm climatology. However, its impact modulated perhaps more so by snow type, and duration. That's the overall look of this. We could snow 9" of blue bomb snow, and that's a siggy problem, and then if it protracts over more intervals for another bit it's ... It's sort of over-achieving in that sense. why 33 to 44th percentile? do mets use 1/9ths instead of deciles? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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