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Significant upper middle Atlantic S/CNE mix/snow potential Jan 3+


Typhoon Tip
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That was the best H5 track we've seen on the Euro....that would prob be better for SNE (esp EASTERN AREAS!!!) than shown. I agree the crazy capture and stall is likely happening to our northeast though. I don't expect 20-30" for anyone until maybe you get up into DE ME. 

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If it does that folks it won't 'back in' heavy snow  ...

that clown chart - whack that down by 60 some percent, easily -

The NAO is blocking and sending that back SW: when that does that?  It's always as a core wrapped occluded shredded wind whipped wet flurries, ... "fake" low visibility drizzle.. hot cocoa event.  In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if that look eventually morphed into one of those warm fronts pushing SW through the lower Maritimes... 38 F in the "warm sector" and 31 in Maine -

I'm not sure if the Euro is believable, but that's just a large and largely forgettable trough aggregate/latent heat dumpster trough out there - ...the Euro seems to be buckin for a non-corrective emergence of a REX structure between the over-arcing -NAO, and that unusually large, stable SPV it creates underneath.   And by 'non-corrective', I mean, ...it gets to that structure without circuiting the atmosphere there a baroclinic gradient/restoring event...

Code for, no storm ...or not much of one...And that shindig up there in D.E.M. is an exaggerate WAA pulse - as said .. - wrapping around the N wall of the total trough space... See that early April more frequently actually... interesting.

Not sure what to make of all that.  Major coup ?  If not, it is - fairly I think ..- inside the time range where it would be justly designated a bust; considering it's verification scoring and the whole 4 day thing.

Fwiw or not ... I feel this Hemisphere we're destined to see set up ...has been sent through the modeling mill very often over the last 10 years - mid winter negative NAO's have been in a short premium if at all.  We've seen them more frequently bookended the cold season ... March -May when of course the humanity side of this endeavor is getting crushed and uninspired by it.   Different thing... Anyway, this is a mid winter proper -NAO and I wonder if it is worth it to keep an open mind to the notion of increased error from every model source there is.. 

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4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

If it does that folks it won't 'back in' heavy snow  ...

that clown chart - whack that down by 60 some percent, easily -

The NAO is blocking and sending that back SW always is a core wrapped occluded shredded wind whipped wet flurries, ... "fake" low visibility with drizzle.. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if that look eventually morphed into one of those warm fronts pushing SW through the lower Maritimes... 38 F in the "warm sector" and 31 in Maine -

I'm not sure if the Euro is believable, but that's just a large and largely forgettable trough aggregate/latent heat dumpster trough out there - ...the Euro seems to be buckin for a non-corrective emergence of a REX structure between the over-arcing -NAO, and that unusually large, stable SPV it creates underneath.   And by 'non-corrective', I mean, ...it gets to that structure without circuiting the atmosphere there a baroclinic gradient/restoring event...

Code for, no storm ...or not much of one...And that shindig up there in D.E.M. is an exaggerate WAA pulse - as said .. - wrapping around the N wall of the total trough space... See that early April more frequently actually... interesting.

Not sure what to make of all that.  Major coup ?  If not, it is - fairly I think ..- inside the time range where it would be justly designated a bust; considering it's verification scoring and the whole 4 day thing.

I was thinking the same thing...sell that post occlusion 6-10" over SNE.

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6 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

One of the two camps will fold like a cheap lawn chair at 00z. Always hard to bet against the Euro, but it seems so wacky lately.

I would be absolutely stunned if the earlier capture were to be correct.... @RUNNAWAYICEBERG See, that isn't an IMBY thing with me. In this case, it means less snow here.

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2 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

Is it an either/or?  Perhaps a neither/neither or both/both?

I feel like if this explodes and captures near the Maratimes, which it probably will, you can kiss next wknd good bye and hold your stratosphere charts tightly in the footie jammies. At least we get to see that freak screaming incoherently on youtube from New Foundland.

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