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Significant upper middle Atlantic S/CNE mix/snow potential Jan 3+


Typhoon Tip
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Yeah the complexity of this cannot be underscored with enough bleeding Sharpie fumes...

No model - much to the chagrin of the validation efforts ... LOL - can really be hugely relied upon by rational convention/approach... to put it nicely.

Subtle nuances in the the NAO orienation and amplitude ( blocking regime...) ... good luck.  And when you are talking a trillion trillion tons of atmosphere in relative motion wrt to the rest of the Terran atmosphere, a 'giga' motion means the end of the world for an ant hill ... In this metaphor, the ant hill is model performance and depictions therein..

Fun stuff...

I personally think the Euro is fiddling with the NAO's ballast ( geographically..) as such, which in present nuanced form is allowing it to conserve more progressive character to the flow upon this thing's departure... I also think that it's correction scheme is 'trying' maybe to dip every Pac wave too aggressively in almost unnoticeable quantities, around 95 W over the mid latitudes of the Continent... In order to do so in physically needs to "lift" the larger synoptic manifold against the wave space we are presently tracking - that's long words for introducing a destructive wave interference ...doing so ( because of this soft unnoticed nature ) in insidious reduction or expense of it's potential.  Weak sauce as some are tasting -

The other models - geee...they don't run special double-top secret 4-D arrogance schemes that can upon occasion - albeit rarely ... - introduce error.   Mind you, this is speculative to a huge degree.. .I don't recall seeing this sort of NAO potential during the last 10 years, a time in which the Euro has migrated to updated versions - I think several times actually - don't quote me. It may be interesting for all guidance actually ...to test how performances play out as this blocking regime ignites.

All that aside, I see this system as a middling at best...btw... Probably 33 ...maybe 44th percentile cyclone going by local hemispheric storm climatology ... But, it has a a couple special talents.  It's a Linas event - it's just another kid on the block but man, can little fugger play the piano.  In this case, it may deliver a higher impact snow "Type" - this won't be the 9" of under-bed dust bunnies snow like we got in that thing a couple weeks back. This could lay down 8" of green clevage snow..  It's also got endurance too - that's another emergent metric' that's hard to qualify - it could surprise, not stop... lasting 30 hours if those giga motions above bump this whole thing into a stalled/later west correction.  So, you get some protracted moderate fall rate banded behavior at 9::1 cake ... It's like there are a couple of hidden signals here that could get this thing to over-achieve impact. 

Of course, that's the way it looks "now"

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2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yeah the complexity of this cannot be underscored...

No model - much to the chagrin of the validation efforts ... LOL - can really be hugely relied upon by rational convention/approach... to put it nicely.

Subtle nuances in the the NAO orienation and amplitude ( blocking regime...) ... good luck.  And when you are talking a trillion trillion tons of atmosphere in relative motion wrt to the rest of the Terran atmosphere, a 'giga' motion means the end of the world for an ant hill ... In this metaphor, the ant hill is model performance and depictions therein..

Fun stuff...

I personally think the Euro is fiddling with the NAO's ballast ( geographically..) as such, which in present nuanced form is allowing it to conserve more progressive character to the flow upon this thing's departure... I also think that it's correction scheme at 'trying' maybe to dip every Pac wave too aggressively in almost unnoticeable quantities, around 95 W over the mid latitudes of the Continent... And that tries to concomitanly "lift" the larger synoptic manifold against the wave space we are presently tracking - that's long words for introducing a destructive wave interference ...doing so ( because of this soft unnoticed nature ) in insidious reduction of it's potential. 

The other models - geee...they don't run special double-top secret 4-D arrogance schemes that can upon occasion - albeit rarely ... - introduce error.   Mind you, this is speculative to a huge degree.. .I don't recall seeing this sort of NAO potential during the last 10 years, a time in which the Euro has has migrated to update versions I think several times actually - don't quote me. It may be interesting for all guidance actually ...to test how performance as this thing ignites.

All that aside, I see this system as a middling at best...probably 33 ...maybe 44th percentile cyclone going by local hemispheric storm climo ... but, it has a a couple special talents.  It's a Linas event - it's just another kid on the block but many can little fugger play the piano.  In this case, it may deliver a higher impact snow "Type" - this won't be the 9" of under-bed dust bunnies snow like we got in that thing a couple weeks back. This could lay down 8" of green clevage snow..  It's also got endurance too - that's another emergent metric' that's hard to qualify - it could surprise last 30 hours if those giga motions above bump this whole thing into a stalled/later west correction.  So, you get some protracted moderate fall rate banded behavior at 9::1 cake ... It's like there are a couple of hidden signals here that could get this thing to over-achieve impact. 

Of course, that's the way it looks "now"

“Green Cleavage Snow”? I think that’s what killed curly!

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