NorEastermass128 Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 A frustrating rainer for the AEMATT crowd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 5 minutes ago, IowaStorm05 said: I’m screwed That GFS is not cute at all It’s not out yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IowaStorm05 Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 Just now, CoastalWx said: It’s not out yet. It is on pivotal. 12z? YeZ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 1, 2021 Author Share Posted January 1, 2021 Yeah the complexity of this cannot be underscored with enough bleeding Sharpie fumes... No model - much to the chagrin of the validation efforts ... LOL - can really be hugely relied upon by rational convention/approach... to put it nicely. Subtle nuances in the the NAO orienation and amplitude ( blocking regime...) ... good luck. And when you are talking a trillion trillion tons of atmosphere in relative motion wrt to the rest of the Terran atmosphere, a 'giga' motion means the end of the world for an ant hill ... In this metaphor, the ant hill is model performance and depictions therein.. Fun stuff... I personally think the Euro is fiddling with the NAO's ballast ( geographically..) as such, which in present nuanced form is allowing it to conserve more progressive character to the flow upon this thing's departure... I also think that it's correction scheme is 'trying' maybe to dip every Pac wave too aggressively in almost unnoticeable quantities, around 95 W over the mid latitudes of the Continent... In order to do so in physically needs to "lift" the larger synoptic manifold against the wave space we are presently tracking - that's long words for introducing a destructive wave interference ...doing so ( because of this soft unnoticed nature ) in insidious reduction or expense of it's potential. Weak sauce as some are tasting - The other models - geee...they don't run special double-top secret 4-D arrogance schemes that can upon occasion - albeit rarely ... - introduce error. Mind you, this is speculative to a huge degree.. .I don't recall seeing this sort of NAO potential during the last 10 years, a time in which the Euro has migrated to updated versions - I think several times actually - don't quote me. It may be interesting for all guidance actually ...to test how performances play out as this blocking regime ignites. All that aside, I see this system as a middling at best...btw... Probably 33 ...maybe 44th percentile cyclone going by local hemispheric storm climatology ... But, it has a a couple special talents. It's a Linas event - it's just another kid on the block but man, can little fugger play the piano. In this case, it may deliver a higher impact snow "Type" - this won't be the 9" of under-bed dust bunnies snow like we got in that thing a couple weeks back. This could lay down 8" of green clevage snow.. It's also got endurance too - that's another emergent metric' that's hard to qualify - it could surprise, not stop... lasting 30 hours if those giga motions above bump this whole thing into a stalled/later west correction. So, you get some protracted moderate fall rate banded behavior at 9::1 cake ... It's like there are a couple of hidden signals here that could get this thing to over-achieve impact. Of course, that's the way it looks "now" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 I'll be sitting without clothes on, It just gets parked in the GOM. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 I’d Hit it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 Looks good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: I’d Hit it. You would like the v16 too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IowaStorm05 Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Yeah the complexity of this cannot be underscored... No model - much to the chagrin of the validation efforts ... LOL - can really be hugely relied upon by rational convention/approach... to put it nicely. Subtle nuances in the the NAO orienation and amplitude ( blocking regime...) ... good luck. And when you are talking a trillion trillion tons of atmosphere in relative motion wrt to the rest of the Terran atmosphere, a 'giga' motion means the end of the world for an ant hill ... In this metaphor, the ant hill is model performance and depictions therein.. Fun stuff... I personally think the Euro is fiddling with the NAO's ballast ( geographically..) as such, which in present nuanced form is allowing it to conserve more progressive character to the flow upon this thing's departure... I also think that it's correction scheme at 'trying' maybe to dip every Pac wave too aggressively in almost unnoticeable quantities, around 95 W over the mid latitudes of the Continent... And that tries to concomitanly "lift" the larger synoptic manifold against the wave space we are presently tracking - that's long words for introducing a destructive wave interference ...doing so ( because of this soft unnoticed nature ) in insidious reduction of it's potential. The other models - geee...they don't run special double-top secret 4-D arrogance schemes that can upon occasion - albeit rarely ... - introduce error. Mind you, this is speculative to a huge degree.. .I don't recall seeing this sort of NAO potential during the last 10 years, a time in which the Euro has has migrated to update versions I think several times actually - don't quote me. It may be interesting for all guidance actually ...to test how performance as this thing ignites. All that aside, I see this system as a middling at best...probably 33 ...maybe 44th percentile cyclone going by local hemispheric storm climo ... but, it has a a couple special talents. It's a Linas event - it's just another kid on the block but many can little fugger play the piano. In this case, it may deliver a higher impact snow "Type" - this won't be the 9" of under-bed dust bunnies snow like we got in that thing a couple weeks back. This could lay down 8" of green clevage snow.. It's also got endurance too - that's another emergent metric' that's hard to qualify - it could surprise last 30 hours if those giga motions above bump this whole thing into a stalled/later west correction. So, you get some protracted moderate fall rate banded behavior at 9::1 cake ... It's like there are a couple of hidden signals here that could get this thing to over-achieve impact. Of course, that's the way it looks "now" “Green Cleavage Snow”? I think that’s what killed curly! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 If that could develop a bit more that’s a great hit. As it is, big for DE Maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 Sick, sick run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 1 minute ago, dryslot said: You would like the v16 too. Yeah not bad. Ride the Ptype line there, but it’s good to be on the west side of these as the mid levels crank. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 v16 gone wild for the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 Yeah PGW. ha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 I’m getting pumped . This is going to have some big totals over a fairly wide area in SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 Just now, CoastalWx said: Yeah not bad. Ride the Ptype line there, but it’s good to be on the west side of these as the mid levels crank. Sitting in the CCB is never a bad thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 ENE special right there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IowaStorm05 Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 I’m taking to heart what Typhoon Tip said Im just now taking in the concept of later longer lasting consequences... I cancel saying I’m screwed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 Meanwhile old gfs just rots snow in Maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 Any maps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 Just now, CoastalWx said: Meanwhile old gfs just rots snow in Maine. Days and days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 This includes saturday too. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 4 minutes ago, dendrite said: ENE special right there. Still room to trend n and w a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 Tamarack may need to be resuscitated after that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 v16 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 I guess 2 inches is better then nothing. I’ll take it. V16 is nicer though lol..10 is better than 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 KAUG with 37"......... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: I guess 2 inches is better then nothing. I’ll take it. V16 is nicer though lol..10 is better than 2 The end result is probably none of these solutions lol. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 CMC is similar too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 Euro will be along to piss in the cereal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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