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Significant upper middle Atlantic S/CNE mix/snow potential Jan 3+


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7 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Highly doubt a whiff.

 

7 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

We saw the whole Euro suite pull the same crap two weeks ago.

 

7 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

We saw that before. It won’t whiff.

 

7 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

 

And the entire time the ensembles were northwest of those suppressed euro runs...not to mention the Synoptics (vortmax and ULL) argued for a track NW of those OP runs. 

Let's hope its a Euro op fail. Raises flags though 

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Just now, mahk_webstah said:

Hoping so but big chances for disappointment.  You are looking g good for tomorrow though so that is a good start.  

Yup.  I never one to lose on the first in hopes of the second.  He's in a good spot for this first one and then let then let the second system do what it does.

 

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Just now, mahk_webstah said:

Hoping so but big chances for disappointment.  You are looking g good for tomorrow though so that is a good start.  

I'm really not concerned about Mon-Tues either with where the H5 low is tracking, Euro pulled this a couple storms back only to tic back a run at a time, EPS looks good here.

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5 minutes ago, dryslot said:

I'm really not concerned about Mon-Tues either with where the H5 low is tracking, Euro pulled this a couple storms back only to tic back a run at a time, EPS looks good here.

Would like to see nam showing something big.  I think we need to see a stronger low develop. Meanwhile my wunderground app shows about 55 consecutive hours of snow starting Sunday Eve lol

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5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

When the ULL goes out south of LI.. SNE Akers does well. It’s a Ginx rule tried and true. The capture and stall there raises the stakes even more .

Need to see that from more guidance. A lot of guidance has the ULL trying to go almost overhead which is more of an NNE look. 

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31 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Need to see that from more guidance. A lot of guidance has the ULL trying to go almost overhead which is more of an NNE look. 

Walt...

Ensembles suggesting a pretty good chance of 3+ inches for some the I84 corridor high terrain in possibly two long duration episodes. A short wave diving into the back side of the initial short wave trough may prolong the event considerably for the New England portion of the forum by forming a a very slow moving upper low along the New England coast. 

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12 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Walt...

Ensembles suggesting a pretty good chance of 3+ inches for some the I84 corridor high terrain in possibly two long duration episodes. A short wave diving into the back side of the initial short wave trough may prolong the event considerably for the New England portion of the forum by forming a a very slow moving upper low along the New England coast. 

3+”....

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21 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Walt...

Ensembles suggesting a pretty good chance of 3+ inches for some the I84 corridor high terrain in possibly two long duration episodes. A short wave diving into the back side of the initial short wave trough may prolong the event considerably for the New England portion of the forum by forming a a very slow moving upper low along the New England coast. 

 

7 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

3+”....

Yes. I don’t disagree with that. Even on scenarios where the ULL is redeveloping almost overhead, interior SNE will get accumulating snow. Perhaps even a decent amount. But it won’t be the favored spot for the heaviest and longest duration snows. That would be favored further northeast in that scenario. 

So I think that’s the difference between and advisory type event or something much bigger. 

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12z NAM H5 low a bit deeper so far. Looking at the cmc etc it seems the stronger that is early on the better. Feel like if it closes off farther inland that once the incoming energy starts to phase you obv have a better chance to tug it back to the right location
 

I know it’s early a lot will change, but anyone got any good spots in E ME if that’s where I end up road tripping?

 

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

 

Yes. I don’t disagree with that. Even on scenarios where the ULL is redeveloping almost overhead, interior SNE will get accumulating snow. Perhaps even a decent amount. But it won’t be the favored spot for the heaviest and longest duration snows. That would be favored further northeast in that scenario. 

So I think that’s the difference between and advisory type event or something much bigger. 

It’s looking like a potent little ULL, so any slight wobbling around will change sensible outcome.  It’s getting sheared out but attempts to redevelop more or less overhead.  That developing block is looking to suppress it but it’s so far north by the time it does.  If the block were in place more, we’d be primed for a huge hit.

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38 minutes ago, Whineminster said:

Hard to get long duration events in this fast flow. 

 

31 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Who is talking long duration?

 

4 minutes ago, Whineminster said:

Have you read any of the last posts?

This isn’t fast flow anyway. 

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5 minutes ago, Whineminster said:

Have you read any of the last posts?

Yes, and I haven’t seen anyone talking long duration storm.

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

 

 

This isn’t fast flow anyway. 

Correct.  But the flow is still progressive.  There’s another s/w hot the heels of this one that may screw with any prolonged baroclinc process along the coast.  This is not to say we couldn’t see a 12hr quick hitting storm favoring eastern areas, it’s just too soon to know.  We may also be dealing with a shitty airmass in southern areas without a dynamic solution to draw in the colder air.

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