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Significant upper middle Atlantic S/CNE mix/snow potential Jan 3+


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1 minute ago, FRWEATHA said:

I remember one of the tv weatherpersons saying on 2/7/78 that the storm had stalled. One of my greatest weather event memories.

Yup. I was living on Long Island.  Started snowing on Sunday evening and didn’t stop until Tuesday afternoon.  School canceled all week and our street wasn’t plowed until Thursday.  My all time favorite!

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5 minutes ago, Sunny Boy said:

Yup. I was living on Long Island.  Started snowing on Sunday evening and didn’t stop until Tuesday afternoon.  School canceled all week and our street wasn’t plowed until Thursday.  My all time favorite!

I had a family member stuck in Providence for a week-rescued by National Guard. Snow started here about noon Monday 12/6/78. By 2:00 PM it was all out blizzard conditions.

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13 minutes ago, FRWEATHA said:

I had a family member stuck in Providence for a week-rescued by National Guard. Snow started here about noon Monday 12/6/78. By 2:00 PM it was all out blizzard conditions.

It was great, I worked after school from 3-6 and when I got home there was already 6 inches and the wind started howling. I knew it was going to be awesome, barely slept that night.

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It is evident in the timing of the second pacific northern branch shortwave at H5, 48 hours still from coming onshore the Pacific NW coast.  We have two days still until the models get a clear indication of the phase potential and how it interacts with the main shortwave ie the southern stream trough and upper low.  It is that phase potential that turns this into a stalled storm scenario.  Honestly, it looks like rain to start at the moment on the Cape and Islands, and snow all interior.  I would venture towards an inside the BM track will be the final result, with the goal posts the 39.8 N: 68.9 W to the Canal at this time, this is subjected to change dramatically, but remain even keeled.  This is a big storm potential as the stall scenario can prolong the event to the point where we get a GFS scenario and CHH sees 5" of QPF in a 48 - 60 hour period, between the 00z of the 4th to 12z of the 6th.

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39 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

Again, there is an initial NW shortwave that interacts with the upper level low and tries to yank it back to the west, but it snaps back and out east, becoming progressive, we shall see how this all interacts over the next two days, I just find it fascinating.

Got a little excited and put together a brief gif. Couldn't help it :weenie:

https://twitter.com/weather_chest/status/1344915094749253633

 

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2 hours ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

Again, it is paramount, that we do not stick with one solution as the timing of the pacific NW shortwave injection and phase as well as the evident developing -NAO Greenland/Davis Strait super E-W oriented block tries to slam the door on the potential escape timing of the coastal storm.

Why can't we stick with one solution 3 days out?  You mean it might not happen that way?  Meanwhile, 06 gfs is a Pit2 croaker.

 

Happy '21, Weenies.

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21 minutes ago, wdrag said:

NY Day 2021 558AM quick update: Extended the event date to Jan 4.  Ensembles suggesting a pretty good chance of 3+ inches for some the I84 corridor high terrain in possibly two long duration episodes. A short wave diving into the back side of the initial short wave trough may prolong the event considerably for the New England portion of the forum by forming a a very slow moving upper low along the New England coast. So it's complex but potent, especially if the 850-500 MB lows form in a favorable position for banding on the northwest side of this storm near I84. Just too early to overcommit but this could be a nice snow event for the I84 corridor and as previously proposed (modeled), can't rule out a touch of wet snow on the back side for NYC and especially eastern LI on the 4th.  Just too early, especially with marginal thermal profiles and absolutely do not want to buy into any 8"  amounts seen on some of the single member operational models for New England, at least not this early with so many differing solutions. If it's progressive and mainly afternoon of the 3rd into early 4th, then the 8" amounts won't happen and this would be an interior I84 standard climo modest event.  Graphics is the 00z/1 GEFS prob of 2+ inches for this coming storm-- 10 to 1 ratio.  Just an idea of primary risk area. Doubt if I'll comment again on this snowier looking Jan 3-4 event until today's is complete, which means I'll try to add some useful thoughts-graphics tomorrow morning - Jan 2. Have a good start to the New Year!

Screen Shot 2021-01-01 at 5.12.17 AM.png

 

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