USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 Just now, PhineasC said: Doesn't that sort of thing happen all the time there? You jut way out into the ocean. Not all the time, but more often then not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 Hey wasn't one of the worst snowstorms of March 1960 just like the 00z GFS in terms of snow, except northeast more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said: ULL and vortmax track for those worrying about a SE track...... You sure about that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 Happy New Year everyone. And it will be off to a good start if either the GFS or CMC verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 6 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: You sure about that? Never totally sure in meteorology....especially at this time range...but I haven’t seen a thing so far at 00z to make me think otherwise. I’m not worried about a whiff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Never totally sure in meteorology....especially at this time range...but I haven’t seen a thing so far at 00z to make me think otherwise. I’m not worried about a whiff. The Euro being so weak is weird though thats a flag for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 8 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: You sure about that? Highly doubt a whiff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 We saw the whole Euro suite pull the same crap two weeks ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: The Euro being so weak is weird though thats a flag for me. We saw that before. It won’t whiff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: The Euro being so weak is weird though thats a flag for me. Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: We saw the whole Euro suite pull the same crap two weeks ago. And the entire time the ensembles were northwest of those suppressed euro runs...not to mention the Synoptics (vortmax and ULL) argued for a track NW of those OP runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 1, 2021 Author Share Posted January 1, 2021 Heh... I thought that was a repro of the 1969 Feb event at first glance - uncanny Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 I'm not saying it has to be a big snow event, but I'm pretty sure it comes NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 Ukie is a pretty big hit too for SNE and especially Maine. This whole capture and stall scenario is really a theme tonight though I’m not really buying it outside of Maine until we get closer. Those capture/stall for 24 hour scenarios tend to drift more progressive as we get closer historically on model guidance. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 Ukie is pretty meh SE Mass RI etc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Ukie is a pretty big hit too for SNE and especially Maine. This whole capture and stall scenario is really a theme tonight though I’m not really buying it outside of Maine until we get closer. Those capture/stall for 24 hour scenarios tend to drift more progressive as we get closer historically on model guidance. Yup. You don't want to be near the sw edge....see NYC in Jan 2015. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 Hubbdave has to be loving the CMC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Ukie is a pretty big hit too for SNE and especially Maine. This whole capture and stall scenario is really a theme tonight though I’m not really buying it outside of Maine until we get closer. Those capture/stall for 24 hour scenarios tend to drift more progressive as we get closer historically on model guidance. Oh yeah I like crazy Unc on NYE hitting the jack and coke Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Ukie is a pretty big hit too for SNE and especially Maine. This whole capture and stall scenario is really a theme tonight though I’m not really buying it outside of Maine until we get closer. Those capture/stall for 24 hour scenarios tend to drift more progressive as we get closer historically on model guidance. The difference is the block that practically forms as this approaches so that can argue for an earlier capture. I think a cmc like solution is possible. Maybe not the exact amounts but it could be more right then wrong...crazy as that sounds. But it performed pretty well for Dec 17. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 Ukie does a loop in the gulf of ME between hr 132 and hr 144. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: The difference is the block that practically forms as this approaches so that can argue for an earlier capture. I think a cmc like solution is possible. Maybe not the exact amounts but it could be more right then wrong...crazy as that sounds. But it performed pretty well for Dec 17. It also did well on Dec 5/6, at least in NNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 1, 2021 Author Share Posted January 1, 2021 There's a historic set up signaled for Jan 8-12th .... We'll see how it parlays.. But, something special may be emerging - if not a upper tier, in aggregated events. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: The difference is the block that practically forms as this approaches so that can argue for an earlier capture. I think a cmc like solution is possible. Maybe not the exact amounts but it could be more right then wrong...crazy as that sounds. But it performed pretty well for Dec 17. Good luck with that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 Just now, Typhoon Tip said: There's a historic set up signaled for Jan 8-12th .... We'll see how it parlays.. But, something special may be emerging Yea, I mentioned that my blog a couple days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 Just now, Typhoon Tip said: There's a historic set up signaled for Jan 8-12th .... We'll see how it parlays.. But, something special may be emerging - if not a upper tier, in aggregate events. Good luck with verification at this point! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 The Ukie moved substantially west from its 12z run, too. It was the furthest E then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IowaStorm05 Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Oh yeah I like crazy Unc on NYE hitting the jack and coke You know what. When I see this; I picture a bottle of straight jack and a big ole rock of coke. That’s the kind of 20s I had. It was Hollywood what can I say. It didn’t end well Hahahaha 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 1, 2021 Author Share Posted January 1, 2021 15 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Ukie is a pretty big hit too for SNE and especially Maine. This whole capture and stall scenario is really a theme tonight though I’m not really buying it outside of Maine until we get closer. Those capture/stall for 24 hour scenarios tend to drift more progressive as we get closer historically on model guidance. Right right ...and then when it actually happens, it's so rarely seen ahead of time. 1992 Dec did this... no clue. It stalled and actually moved W... there's other's that did this.. It's probably one of those last frontiers of forecasting technology goals ...the coveted RI in TCs... when in god's name do lows predictively stall and back west... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 11 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: There's a historic set up signaled for Jan 8-12th .... We'll see how it parlays.. But, something special may be emerging - if not a upper tier, in aggregated events. I’m on the train. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny Boy Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 14 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Right right ...and then when it actually happens, it's so rarely seen ahead of time. 1992 Dec did this... no clue. It stalled and actually moved W... there's other's that did this.. It's probably one of those last frontiers of forecasting technology goals ...the coveted RI in TCs... when in god's name do lows predictively stall and back west... Blizzard of 78! stalled and looped in a great spot. Also had a really strong high pressure to the north 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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