OceanStWx Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 16 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Ukie is way SE....a bit of model chaos. Probably going to stay that way for a bit. We're looking at 3 days until there is a coherent GEFS signal for what this system will be sensitive to. It looks like it will be tied to the wake of the weekend system, not surprisingly. If we allow heights to rise more quickly behind this weekend, there is a better chance we don't whiff something on the 4th like the Ukie hints at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 Just now, PhineasC said: Precip maps are out on Pivotal. I mean the map he posted, look at hour Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Why the hell are we posting an 84 hour map in this thread when the event is basically starting in SNE at 78-84 hours? Have to give him a pass, He's from NY, Well, On second thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 Just now, dryslot said: Have to give him a pass, He's from NY, Well, On second thought. 95% of what he posts is copied and pasted from the nyc sub or another nyc-centric wx forum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 Ukie is mostly a whiff...it gives some snow to CT and MA....it shows rain for SE MA, but I think it would prob be snow as they get into a commahead for a time. But it has sfc temps around 37 so it spits out rain on the clown maps....but 850 temp is like -5 and 925mb is like -1 to -2 so I would say snow there. Doesn't really matter though on a 96h prog. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 1 minute ago, OceanStWx said: Probably going to stay that way for a bit. We're looking at 3 days until there is a coherent GEFS signal for what this system will be sensitive to. It looks like it will be tied to the wake of the weekend system, not surprisingly. If we allow heights to rise more quickly behind this weekend, there is a better chance we don't whiff something on the 4th like the Ukie hints at. Bruce Willis just got run over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 Just now, JC-CT said: 95% of what he posts is copied and pasted from the nyc sub or another nyc-centric wx forum Keep that crap out of here..... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 31, 2020 Author Share Posted December 31, 2020 Ahh... these runs that explode those tight little QPF nuclei like this ... I think some para-Military GFS runs did this recently ?? I agree with - I think it was - Scott who commented on the dubious appeal of that behavior. I suppose it is not 'impossible' - I've commented before, the individual model runs do not put out solutions that are physically impossible. That would be a really bad sign if the model in question was a la la land consultation. Are there any analogs that like that? There must be... either way, it's rare. I would think though, with the wind max traversing ISP to ACK or even S of there,...and the core cold Hdz of the trough situated back over ALB ... this probably has some sort of mechanical support to smear or open that up back NW... Not just saying that to placate the desires of the beloved brethren on the site, either... lol... Plus, there's that weird sfc pressure - looks like some kind of grid scale feedback almost. hm Also, just wanted to remind... duration is/was one of the contentions at the thread's outset ... This was mentioned. The arrival of the NAO may impose an exertion that slows this thing down upon exit/departure... The GGEM shows this hesitation on the the 12z now more readily and the GFS definitely does as well! In fact, excluding it's weird QPF clumping and hyper nodal pressure well near the Islands..the next panel blossoms a CCB head as other's have noted for 4 goodly hours of choke-snow. ... that's really the storm being forced into a stall by down stream exertion at mid levels, and that immediately causes capture and a kickback for quasi CSI ...but probably a frontogenic banded response in that region ensues... I'm not sure why the UKMET does what it does - again...not physically impossible we would hope. That said, it depends upon both subtle and gross orientations of said -NAO ... and where in both space and time its arrival over the western limb of the domain space emerges. Nice sentence there to describe what really takes several dissertation's worth of complexity to iron out deterministically. It 'seems' the UKMET tries to undercut the -NAO ...similar to the NE Pac when a -EPO severs from the Pac jet ... sending it S/splitting matters..But in the Atlantic... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 1 hour ago, dryslot said: Kind of actually. Obv that was special for ME but the capture/stall then crawl NE through the GOM as the block begins to flex it muscles looks be a big signal for your state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Obv that was special for ME but the capture/stall then crawl NE through the GOM as the block begins to flex it muscles looks be a big signal for your state. The one in 69 was more of a retro that just fuji'd in the GOM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 5 minutes ago, dryslot said: The one in 69 was more of a retro that just fuji'd in the GOM Gotchya. Psu ewall archive only goes back to 79 unfortunately. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 What a convoluted upper air pattern this is. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 12z Euro is going to squeeze the s/w more this run I think. The 1/2 system continues to be slower departing than 06z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 Just now, ORH_wxman said: 12z Euro is going to squeeze the s/w more this run I think. The 1/2 system continues to be slower departing than 06z run. Looking that way. Heights are lowered over the northeast and the prior storm is slower to exit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 Going to look like the Ukie me thinks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 Vort is pretty weak sauce, but it's still tracking into SE NY....so that is still a caution flag for believing a far SE solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 Looks kinda UKish thru 84. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 That's a nice looking storm developing. Gonna need to watch that trailing ULL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 Not really what you want to see, But were days out from this so i would rather be here then jacking every run, Does try the late capture. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 So now we have UK/Euro weak and SE while cmc/gfs are more potent and NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 Someone will end up seeing a lot of snow from this depending where it decides to stall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 Flemish cap? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 Gonna be a nice snower this one for C and SNE.. even to the coast. It’s all coming together. Hopefully it’s paste and not powder 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 Outside of the gfs... doesn’t look all that exciting here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 What in the hell is the Euro doing? It's trying to pull a Feb '69 and retrograde it back. Doesn't succeed, but it makes an attempt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 Heh. Looks like snow to rain here as the low starts sucking in marine exhaust. Could be a good blow either way. We track. #NovaScotiaStrong 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 Thinking a rather wide stripe of 4-8” interior SNE to BOS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 Looks like there is a lot of spread in the 12z EPS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 Spread it wide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 12z eps just started now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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