Significant upper middle Atlantic S/CNE mix/snow potential Jan 3+

[dryslot]

4 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Have them running while sleeping?

[78Blizzard]

 

4 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

This is not really even going to Gulf of Maine now . It’s trending so far ESE that When it’s captured and burps north a little bit it winds up South of Halifax N.S by about 100 miles and isn’t backing it up . 

Gee, just 24 hrs ago Mainers were looking at this:
 

 

[dryslot]

3 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

This is not really even going to Gulf of Maine now . It’s trending so far ESE that When it’s captured and burps north a little bit it winds up South of Halifax N.S by about 100 miles and isn’t backing it up . 
 

This is whiffing Eastport Maine 

Low goes east over 39/70.

[dryslot]

3 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

 

Gee, just 24 hrs ago Mainers were looking at this:
 

 

24 hrs later

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Just now, dryslot said:

24 hrs later

Vomit worth performance

[dryslot]

Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Vomit worth performance

Probably one of the biggest model fails of recent.

[Kitzbuhel Craver]

12 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

It looks like absolutely dung, how’s that for optimism?

Only if it’s cow dung and there are shrooms sprouting from it. 

[78Blizzard]

CMC says much of SNE gets more than Maine.  Fuji fail.

 

[Chrisrotary12]

65 pages for an inch. Yikes. Might as well fire up a thread for next weekends whiff.

[Typhoon Tip]

31 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

This is not really even going to Gulf of Maine now . It’s trending so far ESE that When it’s captured and burps north a little bit it winds up South of Halifax N.S by about 100 miles and isn’t backing it up . 

This is actually a fantastic observation, likely unsung.   It pertains to the NAO handling.  What you are observing there is an NAO  ....  NOT blocking.   heh -

Bad deteministic handling of NAO comes in three delicious migraines:   Where; amplitude; when.   

None of these were handled well enough in this situation leading. 

But, forgetting the frustration in not getting this event and keeping it purely Vulcan ( haha ), there were two factors that doomed this:

-- the NAO handling above

-- the system itself being too weak to mechanize it's own stall

And what's interesting is that these two can feed off one another and ( sort of ) 'synergize' a more favorable result.  But being a weak system, and then NAO delaying another 24 to 42 hours to blossom blocking - if one goes back three or four days, you might see that it was slightly faster and more aggressive in the guidance. 

Have you ever heard the expression, 'the hurricane creates its own environment'?   Something similar..  If the system were stronger as it was arriving, it would roll out it's own S/W ridging.  That would then move up and super-impose over the emerging -NAO; we call that a 'constructive wave interference,' and in the advent of that, the two then synergize a stall sooner .. it all feeds back this thing would have gone boom, stalled... I think some of the models had this thing over assessed, and that was causing some of that to paint erroneously on the charts when this was mid range...  I've actually noticed that mid and extended range events are being routinely over amped in all the models.. interesting.

I actually think - personally - another problem in model handling is that the flow has gone too far in the relaxed direction.  We replaced too much velocity and progressive shearing tendencies, with a nebular chaos where entropy is large - well..."entropy" means disarray and when we see the flow features propagating along with only two or maybe three dz height lines and are curling around everywhere like a spaghetti on plate.ugh.   Thing is, luck is involved.  I mean, either a nebular or progressive regime can have entertaining events in the runs breaking good or bad.

[CoastalWx]

5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

This is actually a fantastic observation, likely unsung.   It pertains to the NAO handling.  What you are observing there is an NAO  ....  NOT blocking.   heh -

Bad deteministic handling of NAO comes in three delicious migraines:   Where; amplitude; when.   

None of these were handled well enough in this situation leading. 

But, forgetting the frustration in not getting this event and keeping it purely Vulcan ( haha ), there were two factors that doomed this:

-- the NAO handling above

-- the system itself being too weak to mechanize it's own stall

And what's interesting is that these two can feed off one another and ( sort of ) 'synergize' a more favorable result.  But being a weak system, and then NAO delaying another 24 to 42 hours to blossom blocking - if one goes back three or four days, you might see that it was slightly faster and more aggressive in the guidance. 

I actually think - personally - the problem in model handling is that the flow has gone too far in the relaxed direction.  We replaced too much velocity and progressive shearing tendencies, with a nebular chaos where entropy is large - well..."entropy" means disarray and when we see the flow only has two or may three dz height lines and is curling around everywhere like a spaghetti on plate.   Thing is, luck is involved.  I mean, either a nebular or progressive regime can have entertaining events in the runs breaking good or bad.

There isn’t a real -NAO yet though. Look at the height fields. 

[weathafella]

1 hour ago, dryslot said:

At the earliest, I blame the ones that bought new snow blowers and sleds.

I’ll take like a man.  Sorry everyone 

[dendrite]

27 minutes ago, dryslot said:

24 hrs later

This is a 6hr forecast valid almost 12hrs ago?

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

This is a 6hr forecast valid almost 12hrs ago?

Whoosh, I see you missed the joke.

[SouthCoastMA]

Airmass still sucks after this storm, even if the next one decides to get close enough. Still looking towards mid month and beyond for anything worthwhile down here. 

[Typhoon Tip]

17 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

There isn’t a real -NAO yet though. Look at the height fields. 

I know ... like that said ...it's delayed - just the crucial amount. 

I'd also suggest that if this wave coming through rolled out better lead S/W ridging, it would have enticed western aspect of the NAO to emerge faster - positive feedback.  I think that's what the previous guidance was doing, having subtly over assessed this they may helped that along.   Chicken and egg sorta relationship perhaps...

[TalcottWx]

1 hour ago, dryslot said:

For the good of this board, I think we will have to have a poll to see which poster we offer up to ullr.

Ant from New York 

[ORH_wxman]

Rap goes wild for SW CT later. Give them borderline warning snows. 

Its from the stuff out in PA developing...that’s what you’ll want to watch if there’s a surprise somewhere 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Rap goes wild for SW CT later. Give them borderline warning snows. 

Its from the stuff out in PA developing...that’s what you’ll want to watch if there’s a surprise somewhere 

Maybe 1-3” out this way? 

[40/70 Benchmark]

58 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

This is not really even going to Gulf of Maine now . It’s trending so far ESE that When it’s captured and burps north a little bit it winds up South of Halifax N.S by about 100 miles and isn’t backing it up . 
 

This is whiffing Eastport Maine 

I posted that early this AM after the EURO....you think we are getting boned, look at DE Maine. At least there are no wav3 spacing issues for the weekend whiff lol

[dendrite]

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Rap goes wild for SW CT later. Give them borderline warning snows. 

Its from the stuff out in PA developing...that’s what you’ll want to watch if there’s a surprise somewhere 

Only looks like 0.30” QPF?

[NorEastermass128]

47 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

CMC says much of SNE gets more than Maine.  Fuji fail.

 

I’d take that. 

[Lava Rock]

I changed the spark plug and the oil on mine yesterday, so that was probably the kiss of death. 

I might as well summarize and put them back in trailer. Going to be really short, if any season the rate were going

Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk

[Hoth]

9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Rap goes wild for SW CT later. Give them borderline warning snows. 

Its from the stuff out in PA developing...that’s what you’ll want to watch if there’s a surprise somewhere 

Couldn't even pull a flake with this first batch. I won't hold my breath.

[40/70 Benchmark]

50 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

CMC says much of SNE gets more than Maine.  Fuji fail.

 

It does?

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Don't forget to toss the 10:1 clown maps in a marginal airmass with meager rates and dynamics.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

When the 0z mesos we’re coming out last night I was letting go of whatever hopes I had.  Fell asleep with the headphones on before I made it to the Euro. 

[ORH_wxman]

27 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Only looks like 0.30” QPF?

I dunno, was looking at 15z run on ewall. It’s prob wrong anyway...but can’t rule out advisory snow quite yet I don’t think I’m spots

 

 

[Torch Tiger]

66 pages.

[Great Snow 1717]

Just now, Dr. Dews said:

66 pages.

Congrats, at least you learned how to count when you were in school......