Typhoon Tip Posted January 3, 2021 Author Share Posted January 3, 2021 As far as folks interpretation of the models ... I mentioned this last week; we are in sort of 'uncharted territory' for modeling performance in a bona fide -NAO ...particularly if/when the blocking influence is situated over the western limb, where it is more exerting in terms of wave spacing ..etc. I think that gives a little bit of a pass here - give it a week to marinade and cool off anger ... and perhaps when in the throws of a new potential, folks may be willing to look at this that way. The last 10 years of modeling, a time in which there have been - I think - three product migrations in both the ECMWF and GEFs orgs... and even in the GGEM ... Hell, they've created a Franken-model called the "NAVGEM" in that span - a tool that baffles the mind as to what in the hell they were after... Is there a plan for that? We can assume the engineering arm of NCEP is not neolithically incompetent. They must perform 'pattern specific' regression analysis/testing with 500,000,000 operation instruments... But ya never know. Still ...I don't find it a mere coincidence that this 'nebular' sort of break-down of the erstwhile stretched R-wave rage/velocity regime, along with a spring-like bookended NAO, happen and suddenly the models suck perhaps worse than the great white hurricane busts of the 1980s. Not an accident.. Separate observation and study? It occurs to me, this NAO may have originated as a 'slosh back' from a velocity suspension at hemispheric scope. Same or similar, it reminds me of those rage streamed winters that took place in 2018 /// 2017 /// 2019 and so forth, when those seasonal jet relented as ending, the NAO did the same thing then.. Only this one is happening now ... I wonder if this fast flows that specifically enter breakdown, can be statistically lag correlated to all -NAO emergence ? Fascinating study.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 Just now, DotRat_Wx said: Hey at least the drought is over Nah, Stein is forcing this offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 8 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: This is the culprit that’s screwing with this being a good event. That’s actually sort of signifying a mid level deformation zone. Those do happen. The surface low is still well SW of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 7 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: This is the culprit that’s screwing with this being a good event. Agreed. It was not showing up nearly as defined on those euro runs and some other guidance but the NAM was insisting on it. It’s tough though to trust that it’s real all the time because we’ve seen that garbage overplayed so many time on guidance. Even the Dec 16-17 storm had too much spurious convection out east that was causing some of those runs to pull the storm straight east off the Delmarva which ended up a lot different than reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 But either way, it screws with the downstream height field. So you get less “curling” from the main shortwave our west. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: That’s actually sort of signifying a mid level deformation zone. Those do happen. The surface low is still well SW of that. I was about to post that there looks like a nice banding signal up in C/NNE with the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 This won’t produce any snow at all east of the river . Probably an inch or so west of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 Good thing drunks were tossing the nam yesterday pm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said: Good thing drunks were tossing the nam yesterday pm Yeah why even look at it they said Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 3 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Good thing drunks were tossing the nam yesterday pm The same NAm that dropped 1-2’ feet in prior runs you mean? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: The same NAm that dropped 1-2’ feet in prior runs you mean? The point was not to discount the nam trend, it was a flag. Rookie mistake by you, better next time. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 4 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said: The point was not to discount the nam trend, it was a flag. Rookie mistake by you, better next time. It wasn’t any flag . It was wrong just like every model was. Stick to Untappd check ins ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IowaStorm05 Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said: What a bizarre system. I couldn’t even tell you why guidance fizzles it so fast from N PA/NY state into SNE. We’ll still have to watch if that stuff holds together better than guidance says and some peeps pick up at least maybe low end advisory. I think anything could happen. We learned we not trust the models when they suggested a lot of snow with this system. We also cannot trust the models NOW, that they are suggesting none. Unlike most events This is one where I believe it is possible to get a region wide surprise 3-6 inches that models don’t sniff out until inside of 6-12 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: It wasn’t any flag . It was wrong just like every model was. Stick to Untappd check ins ! You really shouldn’t be posting today after your debacle waa bad even by your standards 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: It wasn’t any flag . It was wrong just like every model was. Stick to Untappd check ins ! Ok, good luck padawan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: You really shouldn’t be posting today after your debacle waa bad even by your standards What a doosh 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: What a doosh Still looks like 2-4” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 3 minutes ago, IowaStorm05 said: I think anything could happen. We learned we not trust the models when they suggested a lot of snow with this system. We also cannot trust the models NOW, that they are suggesting none. Unlike most events This is one where I believe it is possible to get a region wide surprise 3-6 inches that models don’t sniff out until inside of 6-12 hours I dunno. I don’t see anything exciting. Maybe some areas get an inch or two. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: What a doosh I mean you should be eating humble pie , that is all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Still looks like 2-4” I don’t think my area sees any snow . Maybe you will Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 Maybe we can get an inv trough. I know Ern Ma Wx loves to blog about those. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 28 minutes ago, dryslot said: I guess its time to look ahead. Weenie memories are short, the model humping will begin all over again with the next threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: I don’t think my area sees any snow . Maybe you will You’re at 1k. You’ll get some snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 2 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: I mean you should be eating humble pie , that is all I already admitted I made a mistake. Everyone here was wrong. Mets, weenies etc. We were all wrong . There’s no reason to throw it in peoples faces like you did . 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 3 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Still looks like 2-4” 1-2” more likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 3 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: Weenie memories are short, the model humping will begin all over again with the next threat. Yeah, Close the shades until the 15th, It happens, You hate to see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 I thought this was the easiest slam dunk forecast for a moderate snow event that there ever was? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Supernovice Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 11 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: It wasn’t any flag . It was wrong just like every model was. Stick to Untappd check ins ! Lol there it is...classic Snowflake in Tolland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 AM WX NE forum: Come for the Weather discussion and camaraderie; stay for the infighting, melts and recrimination! 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 3 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: I thought this was the easiest slam dunk forecast for a moderate snow event that there ever was? 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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