Supernovice Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: What changes would you make to this forecast now? Early morning knife twisting, even tho all Mets had caution flags every which way....and had to edit the original post to do so, because his first attempt wasn’t quitttteeee enough. Or maybe he needs at least two tries to get anything right...Stay classy 2021- the year the troll gets his. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 What a shit show, BUT I think Scott and others said anything before the 12th? +/- anything prior would be a bonus, but from 6-12"+ to garbage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 More snow yesterday for most than from this 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 2 hours ago, The 4 Seasons said: Probably the first and only call ill make on this one. If this look better (or worse) at 12Z i may update it. Pretty much a non-event the way i see it. Can't rule out a few isolated 2 or 3" amounts in interior southern connecticut. Right now, areas near the NY boarder look the most favorable on modeling. Stay safe, everyone. Days and days of.....oh forget it. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 2 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: Stay safe, everyone. Days and days of.....oh forget it. No worries about what Pit to enjoy this one from. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 21 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: What changes would you make to this forecast now? Crickets. Always calls out other mets mistakes , but won’t address own. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 What a bizarre system. I couldn’t even tell you why guidance fizzles it so fast from N PA/NY state into SNE. We’ll still have to watch if that stuff holds together better than guidance says and some peeps pick up at least maybe low end advisory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Crickets. Always calls out other mets mistakes , but won’t address own. I thought I laid out the uncertainty there. You’ll probably get some snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 Just now, CoastalWx said: I thought I laid out the uncertainty there. You’ll probably get some snow. You just shouldn’t criticize other mets forecasts. And Nope 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 BOX might drop these more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: You just shouldn’t criticize other mets forecasts. And Nope No, I criticize clown forecasts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: What a bizarre system. I couldn’t even tell you why guidance fizzles it so fast from N PA/NY state into SNE. We’ll still have to watch if that stuff holds together better than guidance says and some peeps pick up at least maybe low end advisory. I think it’s just bad timing. That lead s/w pulls the entire system offshore and the ULL is attempting to re-organzine it along the south coast but does it too late. WCB snows look great then go poof as storm attempts to redevelop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: No, I criticize clown forecasts. You call out specific met forecasts quite often . Just please don’t do it 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 46 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Full circle. Lol models suck. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 Block doing blocky things. Looks like I’ll see the kitchen sink. Lashing winds with periods of hvy rain mixed with snow. Awesome. #NovaScotiaStrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 4 minutes ago, dendrite said: Who’s that guy? Looks like a cross between Usher and A-Rod. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: You call out specific met forecasts quite often . Just please don’t do it Such as who? I respect most as this is a humbling field. I don’t respect clown wish casting. We have enough of that in this field. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: 6z euro is even worse. What an abysmal performance by that model. It likes to amp up at times, a definitely flaw at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 Nam wins? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 Tip has been saying for days it looked like a weak pos by New England cyclogenic standards and that models didn’t have a good grasp on outcome. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 Just now, HIPPYVALLEY said: Tip has been saying for days it looked like a weak pos by New England cyclogenic standards and that models didn’t have a good grasp on outcome. It will be a decent storm, just east of here. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It will be a decent storm, just east of here. Weenies on Georges Bank will enjoy it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It will be a decent storm, just east of here. Gonna’ need a bigger boat! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheBudMan Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 yes, nowadays you kick my ass in the shape department. I am a shape, it's round. Diet starts Monday. Get on that bike Jay. Let's Gooooooooo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 3, 2021 Author Share Posted January 3, 2021 4 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: Just saw it too. When the early 00z guidance came in I wasn’t feeling great. Some of those same mesos are looking a bit better now though....so still gotta think there may be a decent stripe of advisory snow? Vortmax track is pretty classic for it....it’s just we aren’t going to be able to sync up the conveyors so warning snowfall isn’t happening. I think we're too focused on idealized shapes and configurations ... The z-coordinate is killing this entire aspect... It's just not deep enough - the mid troposphere isn't cold enough. The heights are too shallow in that trough ... 542 DM until it coalesces E of the BM with a bunch of v-junk, and barely beneath 540 ...when the surrounding medium is only 552 is simply not enough gradient to get this thing to "spin" faster, drill sooner, anchor quicker, ... and bring the fuller spectrum of cyclogenic output - including ...heavier snow. As a result, we get a middling low ... probably mid way up the cyclone spectrum for our climo/ West Atl Basin which yeah...if it 'could have' detonated and organized sooner by way of better forcing, we probably get a higher impact 9:1 paste bomb. I agree with you though that there's probably going to be a stripe of something going on along the wind tunnel as it passes thru - I think there's room for error assumption there, but we'll see. So not a 100 loss - as you mention ... vorticity trajectory and associated wind maxima therein is/are ...moving along a decent climate position .. .at least through 24 hours... Scott had also mentioned that the wind max/trough morphology wasn't "curling" soon enough upon reaching our longitude - I suspect that observation is connected to the paltry feebleness of this over all thing, too. If this thing was more mechanically powerful, it would roll out "tendency" - if not observable - lead S/W ridging...which would act in concert with the emerging NAO aspect to slow this whole thing down sooner, and anchor a stronger system... It's too shallow..too weak to get this down. You know... I find a subtle irony in this... We have been at a high premium for years YEARS really, to get a real -NAO look established... a time spent in a fast progressive rage much of the time... We finally get the NAO or NOA prone atmosphere and it goes too far the other way. The Euro's D7-10 really ...I mean, it's not likely to verify of course.. but, it does nicely demo a nebular pattern that is franly almost impossible to discern the R-wave nodes ... We can't run a deterministic solution off that either. Replaced one asshole pattern with another...and we can't seem to find the happy guy in the middle - lol Kidding but seriously tho - I don't have any faith on the Jan 9-12th period at this point. The 00z guidance continue to erode the NAO down to neutral in the operational runs, and the that flow is till looking rather nebular and non structurally deterministic ... I'm not really sure where this is heading frankly - ... I'm bummed to be brutally honest.. .because I thought about much of above all week but didn't have the balls to believe it would k'o this ordeal. I relied to much on the larger picture. I feel pretty confident that the model handling of this also struggled with it..interesting. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 I guess its time to look ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 This is the culprit that’s screwing with this being a good event. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 6 minutes ago, dryslot said: I guess its time to look ahead. to 21/22? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 13 minutes ago, TheBudMan said: Get on that bike Jay. Let's Gooooooooo LOL I know.... I need to 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 Hey at least the drought is over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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