Sey-Mour Snow Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 What the hell happend to the NAM?? Atrocious! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 1 minute ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: What the hell happend to the NAM?? Atrocious! coming off the 18z Euro high....0-2 it seems Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 54 minutes ago, dryslot said: Solid on the 18z EPS I’d trust the EPS, but man the Euro OP has been way more amped in multiple coastal low events this season. It loves to tuck them in. I’m still shoveling ECMWF snow like the GGEM when it comes to coastal systems, phantom snow on the NW side while it tucks it in. Hopefully it pulls a rabbit from its hat this time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 16 minutes ago, DotRat_Wx said: It infuriates me to look at this map. It looks like a png I pulled off the internet in high school. The guy can't make a better map? Seriously I don't mind the map, as much as the fact that it somehow represents the primary forecast (vs. NWS) to the entire Boston.com audience, and also that he hates snow. I love it when he busts too low. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 3km NAM, 12km NAM, HRRR, 0 for 3 at 00z all shredded POS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 4 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: 3km NAM, 12km NAM, HRRR, 0 for 3 at 00z all shredded POS Who cares 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 Yeah those are some UGLY runs. Really bizarre seeing this so close to the event when you have the euro much better looking. It’s weird that the midlevel stuff is actually pretty potent out to the west in NY state and then just goes poof as it enters SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Who cares You will when you wake up Monday to a green lawn. 1 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Who cares It’s not all bad news, ski country up here could use another quarter inch of QPF in a 2-4” refresher. Been an ugly holiday period before today. The snowmobile trails could use it. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Yeah those are some UGLY runs. Really bizarre seeing this so close to the event when you have the euro much better looking. It’s weird that the midlevel stuff is actually pretty potent out to the west in NY state and then just goes poof as it enters SNE. Yes, I've learned never to discount anything, let alone pieces of guidance, keep an open mind, there's definitely plenty of signs of a shredded mess. Glad Euro and EPS is on our side, we will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 after 0z tomorrow night, the moisture just goes poof...wierd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 If the Euro busts this close in...it’s gonna be an incredibly long winter. I mean when you’re 24 hrs before go time, and theres modeling that shows practically nothing, and the Euro and its ensembles show high end solid advisory snows....you gotta go with the Euro right now. So if it flops on its face with this, that’s going to be a huge hole in its armor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 sure hope the meso models are smoking crack.. otherwise sucks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 16 minutes ago, powderfreak said: I’d trust the EPS, but man the Euro OP has been way more amped in multiple coastal low events this season. It loves to tuck them in. I’m still shoveling ECMWF snow like the GGEM when it comes to coastal systems, phantom snow on the NW side while it tucks it in. Hopefully it pulls a rabbit from its hat this time. Euro wasn't amped enough on 12/17. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 Just now, WinterWolf said: If the Euro busts this close in...it’s gonna be an incredibly long winter. I mean when you’re 24 hrs before go time, and theres modeling that shows practically nothing, and the Euro and its ensembles show high end solid advisory snows....you gotta go with the Euro right now. So if it flops on its face with this, that’s going to be a huge hole in its armor. You guys really haven’t been paying attention to the Euro have you? I’m not saying it’s right or wrong, but these posts make me think no one had seen it’s bias before of being NW of other guidance. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: If the Euro busts this close in...it’s gonna be an incredibly long winter. I mean when you’re 24 hrs before go time, and theres modeling that shows practically nothing, and the Euro and its ensembles show high end solid advisory snows....you gotta go with the Euro right now. So if it flops on its face with this, that’s going to be a huge hole in its armor. The Herps actually showed this too at 18z, odd for that model as it usually has a monsoon for every system....we shall see, could be a blip and all is well by 6z tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 1 minute ago, powderfreak said: You guys really haven’t been paying attention to the Euro have you? I’m not saying it’s right or wrong, but these posts make me think no one had seen it’s bias before of being NW of other guidance. It's been much better this year with that, as Ray said it wasn't nearly far enough NW with 12/17. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 Just now, Spanks45 said: The Herps actually showed this too at 18z, odd for that model as it usually has a monsoon for every system....we shall see, could be a blip and all is well by 6z tomorrow Ya I saw that, concerning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 There is no reason that the mid level energy should inexplicably evaporate as it enters SNE. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Euro wasn't amped enough on 12/17. I guess I’d have to look at the time frame. Maybe it’s more mid-range lead time. But I’ve gotten a lot of Euro snow in some of these events this year. It definitely isn’t the model that tends to be SE of actual, but the lead time probably matters. Im not saying it’s right or wrong, but the Euro gradually took that event away from here. Maybe it’s location specific. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 18z Euro: 3"+ qpf 0z NAM: 0.1" qpf 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 5 minutes ago, powderfreak said: You guys really haven’t been paying attention to the Euro have you? I’m not saying it’s right or wrong, but these posts make me think no one had seen it’s bias before of being NW of other guidance. No I get what you’re saying. But as Ray just said, it wasn’t amped enough two weeks ago. So sure, it can be amped happy, but is it this time? And we are 24 hrs out, and it’s gonna flop this badly? And does the nice looking mid level stuff just going poof as it gets into SNE as the meso’s show, really make sense? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 11 minutes ago, powderfreak said: It’s not all bad news, ski country up here could use another quarter inch of QPF in a 2-4” refresher. Been an ugly holiday period before today. The snowmobile trails could use it. I’ll take the local Jack, doubt that happens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 11 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah those are some UGLY runs. Really bizarre seeing this so close to the event when you have the euro much better looking. It’s weird that the midlevel stuff is actually pretty potent out to the west in NY state and then just goes poof as it enters SNE. It’s like the Mesos are chasing that lead vorticity offshore 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 3 minutes ago, powderfreak said: I guess I’d have to look at the time frame. Maybe it’s more mid-range lead time. But I’ve gotten a lot of Euro snow in some of these events this year. It definitely isn’t the model that tends to be SE of actual, but the lead time probably matters. Look at any time frame you want....euro was a whiff most of that modeling evolution, and even close in...it had the death band over extreme s NH....then I smoked exhaust while Brian's chickens did naked snow angels in 34"....so don't tell me the shit was too amped. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 4 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said: 18z Euro: 3"+ qpf 0z NAM: 0.1" qpf Lol...which one you gonna go with at this lead time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: There is no reason that the mid level energy should inexplicably evaporate as it enters SNE. This. That is not logical, and doesn’t make sense in this set up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Lol...which one you gonna go with at this lead time? Given that's it's primarily liquid here..I'd rather have it be a complete miss tbh. With that said, I'm leaning towards the NAM being full of sh*t. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 Just now, SouthCoastMA said: Given that's it's primarily liquid here..I'd rather have it be a complete miss tbh. I get that. But regardless of whatever way it falls, which modeling output are you gonna trust 24 hrs before go time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 4 hours ago, PhineasC said: She's dead, Jim. Pretty soon the only people getting snow from this will be the upslope crew after the storm passes. Yup. @powderfreak Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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