STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: HRRR gone wild Ya it did . Would be great if HRRR didn’t have NW bias at 48 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 The approach of a mid/upper level shortwave currently analyzed over the mid-MS River Valley and low pressure forecast to develop over eastern NC due to a residual baroclinic zone will bring another round of wintry precipitation to portions of the Northeast and New England late on day 1 (Sunday) through day 3 (Tuesday). A lack of deep phasing and separation between the mid-level wave and low will keep precipitation relatively light over portions of PA/interior NY where a few inches of snow are forecast. But as the low approaches the Gulf of Maine, it will slow or even retrograde back to the west/southwest as its caught up in the deepening/closing off mid-level energy. This could support a prolonged period of snow across coastal NH to much of Maine in th day 2/3 time-frame, though there remains considerable uncertainty in the evolution and QPF. Deterministic runs of the latest guidance did trend upward, particularly for Maine where there is a signal for winter storm criteria to be met or exceeded. However, given the uncertainty and model spread still, the blend favored the ECENS/ECMWF runs. This system bears watching. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said: Ya it did . Would be great if HRRR didn’t have NW bias at 48 hours Out of its range. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 11 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Really? Was it a red flag yesterday when it showed two feet here? C’mon, it’s the NAM. i did not look at it yesterday.. why would i look at the NAM when it's 48hr+? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 Just now, Bostonseminole said: i did not look at it yesterday.. why would i look at the NAM when it's 48hr+? If you wouldn’t look at it then. Why now? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 2 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said: i did not look at it yesterday.. why would i look at the NAM when it's 48hr+? Why look at it now and worry about what that thing shows..when the Euro showed something completely opposite? It’s erratic..period. Sure it can sometimes sniff a trend, but when it’s all over the place run to run, toss it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: If you wouldn’t look at it then. Why now? Lol are we more than 48hrs out? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 1 minute ago, WinterWolf said: Why look at it now and worry about what that thing shows..when the Euro showed something completely opposite? i give it more weight < 48hrs.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 Just now, Bostonseminole said: i give it more weight < 48hrs.. Ahhh don’t give it too much weight. At 0z it’ll show you getting 12+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 Days and days of currier and ives Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 that 18z HRRR would be nice but worthless at that range.. still feel 4-6" is a good bet for this area.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 2 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said: are we more than 48hrs out? lol It’s not ever given any weight. You do know it’s being discontinued this year right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: That looks great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 1 minute ago, WinterWolf said: Ahhh don’t give it too much weight. At 0z it’ll show you getting 12+. yeah, I know everyone treats it different, and probably in this scenario the NAM is not great.. but I watch for model trends within a model, just as much as vs. another model.. the NAM has been trending to POS last few runs.. all I'm saying. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: It’s not ever given any weight. You do know it’s being discontinued this year right? read my last post.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 So are the models that are crapping the bed showing more separation between the “mid level wave and the low” and killing a shot of a decent capture for E SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: It’s not ever given any weight. You do know it’s being discontinued this year right? NAM? Is that true? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 2 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said: that 18z HRRR would be nice but worthless at that range.. still feel 4-6" is a good bet for this area.. Isn't the "long range" HRRR going to eventually replace the NAM? Thought I had read that somewhere a while back... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Tblizz will gladly take that min over his house. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 Just now, bristolri_wx said: Isn't the "long range" HRRR going to eventually replace the NAM? Thought I had read that somewhere a while back... yeah.. there is an experiment HRRR that runs on SV.. not sure if that's the one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 2, 2021 Author Share Posted January 2, 2021 6 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Heh... I dunno - I never like it when products cookie-cutter around the land masses like that. We'll see but that appeals as though the model physics are over sensitive to the BL variance between the ocean and land ...and is augmenting at the interface. Not the same thing even as a CF ... "Maybe" more like fluidity deformation because air over land moves slower than the over water, so the BL ends up slightly taller and acts like a oreographic lift/axis... speculation, but I see that kind of thing from sensitive hyper discrete models too often. I suppose it could happen - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 2 minutes ago, weathafella said: NAM? Is that true? Yes. I’m not sure exactly the date, but it’s being replaced by the HRRX I believe . It’s a relatively useless model other than convection Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IowaStorm05 Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 The Canadian has remained more consistent than any other model. And I noticed it. Let’s see if 18z holds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Tblizz will gladly take that min over his house. Scott , where are you at with this thing . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 5 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said: yeah, I know everyone treats it different, and probably in this scenario the NAM is not great.. but I watch for model trends within a model, just as much as vs. another model.. the NAM has been trending to POS last few runs.. all I'm saying. I get it. Fair enough. :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Tblizz will gladly take that min over his house. No plowing necessary Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 18 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Scott , where are you at with this thing . I think a narrow area of several inches could work out. But honestly I’m quite baffled with how bad modeling is. Maybe two areas. One near TOL and points SW to NE from there in the high terrain. Perhaps another area just away from the coast like HRRR and Euro show? That would be depending on how that low develops and brings in the precip. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 33 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: I take that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 Reggie looked meh too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IowaStorm05 Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I think a narrow area of several inches could work out. But honestly I’m quite baffled with how bad modeling is. Maybe two areas. One near TOL and points SW to NE from there in the high terrain. Perhaps another area just away from the coast like HRRR and Euro show? That would be depending on how that low develops and brings in the precip. No kidding. The modeling has been bad, even erratic, and what was trending a massive blockbuster caved to a small or even nonexistent event within the span of 24 hours and it did it inside of 72 hours. Maybe that still happens nowadays but I don’t remember the last time I saw these things happen with modeling... at least not in the last 5-10 years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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