dryslot Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 Just now, HoarfrostHubb said: We do the dance. The Fuji dance 75 miles further west when that starts and boom. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 Watch the 8th be surpressed now if the fuji takes too long to depart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Watch the 8th be surpressed now if the fuji takes too long to depart. Yeah I don’t think we do both. That would be difficult. Sorry Canadian. Not a zero chance, but I’d bet against it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 Just now, CoastalWx said: Yeah I don’t think we do both. That would be difficult. Sorry Canadian. Not a zero chance, but I’d bet against it. Frequently a safe bet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 I don’t recall having 3 day swings like this season. You have the RGEM pulling oil tankers through the Cape Cod Canal, and the Euro over the Andrea Gail. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 7 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Watch the 8th be surpressed now if the fuji takes too long to depart. Yup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 From Jeffrey's ledge to Georges bank. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 That was the best H5 track we've seen on the Euro....that would prob be better for SNE (esp EASTERN AREAS!!!) than shown. I agree the crazy capture and stall is likely happening to our northeast though. I don't expect 20-30" for anyone until maybe you get up into DE ME. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 Congrats Eastport. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 14 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Watch the 8th be surpressed now if the fuji takes too long to depart. 12z Euro shows that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 12 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Watch the 8th be surpressed now if the fuji takes too long to depart. There are definitely ways for this entire week to end poorly for W of the River crowd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 1, 2021 Author Share Posted January 1, 2021 If it does that folks it won't 'back in' heavy snow ... that clown chart - whack that down by 60 some percent, easily - The NAO is blocking and sending that back SW: when that does that? It's always as a core wrapped occluded shredded wind whipped wet flurries, ... "fake" low visibility drizzle.. hot cocoa event. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if that look eventually morphed into one of those warm fronts pushing SW through the lower Maritimes... 38 F in the "warm sector" and 31 in Maine - I'm not sure if the Euro is believable, but that's just a large and largely forgettable trough aggregate/latent heat dumpster trough out there - ...the Euro seems to be buckin for a non-corrective emergence of a REX structure between the over-arcing -NAO, and that unusually large, stable SPV it creates underneath. And by 'non-corrective', I mean, ...it gets to that structure without circuiting the atmosphere there a baroclinic gradient/restoring event... Code for, no storm ...or not much of one...And that shindig up there in D.E.M. is an exaggerate WAA pulse - as said .. - wrapping around the N wall of the total trough space... See that early April more frequently actually... interesting. Not sure what to make of all that. Major coup ? If not, it is - fairly I think ..- inside the time range where it would be justly designated a bust; considering it's verification scoring and the whole 4 day thing. Fwiw or not ... I feel this Hemisphere we're destined to see set up ...has been sent through the modeling mill very often over the last 10 years - mid winter negative NAO's have been in a short premium if at all. We've seen them more frequently bookended the cold season ... March -May when of course the humanity side of this endeavor is getting crushed and uninspired by it. Different thing... Anyway, this is a mid winter proper -NAO and I wonder if it is worth it to keep an open mind to the notion of increased error from every model source there is.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 From euphoria to despondency in a matter of minutes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 One of the two camps will fold like a cheap lawn chair at 00z. Always hard to bet against the Euro, but it seems so wacky lately. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 Perhaps this thread should be renamed to reflect CNE/NNE/ENE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 1 hour ago, IowaStorm05 said: Westerly RI has in my opinion always been a pleasant middle class town. I lived there high school and part college years. It was a little utopia I was born and lived there for 43 years. Small world 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 Nice start for the lucky few. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: If it does that folks it won't 'back in' heavy snow ... that clown chart - whack that down by 60 some percent, easily - The NAO is blocking and sending that back SW always is a core wrapped occluded shredded wind whipped wet flurries, ... "fake" low visibility with drizzle.. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if that look eventually morphed into one of those warm fronts pushing SW through the lower Maritimes... 38 F in the "warm sector" and 31 in Maine - I'm not sure if the Euro is believable, but that's just a large and largely forgettable trough aggregate/latent heat dumpster trough out there - ...the Euro seems to be buckin for a non-corrective emergence of a REX structure between the over-arcing -NAO, and that unusually large, stable SPV it creates underneath. And by 'non-corrective', I mean, ...it gets to that structure without circuiting the atmosphere there a baroclinic gradient/restoring event... Code for, no storm ...or not much of one...And that shindig up there in D.E.M. is an exaggerate WAA pulse - as said .. - wrapping around the N wall of the total trough space... See that early April more frequently actually... interesting. Not sure what to make of all that. Major coup ? If not, it is - fairly I think ..- inside the time range where it would be justly designated a bust; considering it's verification scoring and the whole 4 day thing. I was thinking the same thing...sell that post occlusion 6-10" over SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 That ULL crosses SNE. You have to think QPF is well Nw of modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 6 minutes ago, PhineasC said: One of the two camps will fold like a cheap lawn chair at 00z. Always hard to bet against the Euro, but it seems so wacky lately. I would be absolutely stunned if the earlier capture were to be correct.... @RUNNAWAYICEBERG See, that isn't an IMBY thing with me. In this case, it means less snow here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: That ULL crosses SNE. You have to think QPF is well Nw of modeled. We probably get a few to several inches from the primary ULL, but that retro post occlusion BS is an artifact of modeling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 Personally, I'd rather this one never capture and just get the fu@# out. I'd gladly trade the 4" of fluff for the whole system to disappear. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: We probably get a few to several inches from the primary ULL, but that retro post occlusion BS is an artifact of modeling. At least we might not see the grass. That’s better than what we have now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 Just now, moneypitmike said: At least we might not see the grass. That’s better than what we have now. I'd rather see the grass for 5 extra days and get a blizzard next weekend. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I'd rather see the grass for 5 extra days and get a blizzard next weekend. Is it an either/or? Perhaps a neither/nor or one/and. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 3 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: At least we might not see the grass. That’s better than what we have now. After tomorrow, I don't want to see grass until May. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 2 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: Is it an either/or? Perhaps a neither/neither or both/both? I feel like if this explodes and captures near the Maratimes, which it probably will, you can kiss next wknd good bye and hold your stratosphere charts tightly in the footie jammies. At least we get to see that freak screaming incoherently on youtube from New Foundland. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: That ULL crosses SNE. You have to think QPF is well Nw of modeled. 1 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IowaStorm05 Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 13 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: I was born and lived there for 43 years. Small world That’s awesome! When I was 17 I was a dishwasher at Friendlys and I would cry because the dishes would get too backed up on the weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 Remember when weak La Nina meant clippers? Exhausting to track coastal after coastal. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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