Typhoon Tip Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 We only have 5 days before this starts formulating ...and 6 before go time... and this is kind of coming in the shadow of Jan 1/2 concern - I think it is time to get this out. Fast flow - sorry...gotta work with the time, friends. The main deterministic headaches for the robustly coherent signal ... Jan 4th + are ( and I am encouraging other Mets well-informed enthusiast inputs in this increasingly adaptive mid/ext range) : - Baroclinic recovery along Eastern Seaboard and immediately adjacent west Atlantic: If the January 1/2nd event sweeps the better baroclinicity more east, that it's another scenario where the mid range was overly assessing cyclonic/total wave amplitude ( it's an under the radar aspect I've noticed where the models seem to see 'events' out in time like the moon coming over the horizon at dusk like it's this looming celestial event!) - Rapid succession of Pacific wave input in a transitioning pattern; that does offer a bit of headaches for timing and placement .. We can be delivered faux stability across many cycles when surveying events in the late mid range+. But then.. something gets tasted into the grids, and boom: the models spit it back out a busted ravioli due to negative/destructive S/W space interference in an otherwise favorable super structure, and we taste the waste. ( hate that, knowing history is being avoided) Something to watch for... this Jan 4 set up is very fragile folks.. There are really not more than 2 ...maybe 3 ( depending on which member one uses) isopyses describing the trough... It is interesting though that there is till a 100 kt 500 mb jet max(s) ..and that intrigues me. - Virtually every member of the GEFs carry a trough through 80-70W with itinerant surface placements ..albeit still within consideration for said areas, upper MA/ SNE/CNE ... Don't mean to leave NNE out but this does presently look more southern oriented - stand by - Duration: I am intrigued by the explosive onset of -NAO. As modeled it is biased over the western limb of the domain space, which is key to orchestrating what happens after Jan 4.. I am not sure this thing really exists as fast as the GEFs camp tendency to progression as a separate model bias rule to the 'real' progression that is being lost in this transition - the former holds on a bit too long and carries things away too far East as a plausible emerging error. This almost smacks as Feb 1967 weirdness but not as a redux... just as general layout, we have an antecedent fast flow that is relaxing abruptly ( I suspect so...), and that immediately "strands" whatever is ongoing ... Think of an asshole careening thru and intersection and leaving a snarl and going on blithely unaware... The blocking/trainwreck near D. Straight pins and starts pinwheeling beneath..and there may still be residual Pac S/W schrapnel into the backside ... at relative scales, any one of which may be substantive to induce/ignite anew along the Del Marv to Benchmark cyclone conveyor. I suspect by weight what has really evolved to be a striking -AO enhanced Hemisphere. It is unclear/intensely suppositional whether the NAO subordinate polar field index is actually being forced to do the AO's bidding ... What I suspect is happening - personally - is that the relationship between those two is in fact "indirect" ... I think the AO is/has become so demonstrative it is effecting the large scale R-wave/planetary mode ...and that is one that is relaxing the velocity surplus that we've plagued with ...really going back multiple seasons actually.. Bit of uncharted waters here for that alone -we haven't been dealt this sort of arena ..or 'blessed' perhaps depending how this plays its cards... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 Nice post tip. 12z cmc seems to have a nice 988mb low in a good spot looking at the B & w maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 7 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said: Nice post tip. 12z cmc seems to have a nice 988mb low in a good spot looking at the B & w maps SNE crush job on the GGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 Why are those dumb maps still even produced? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 Cooler than 0z and further east but warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 2 minutes ago, PhineasC said: Why are those dumb maps still even produced? No idea, but they update quickly, lol. They literally are the EXACT same graphics as when I started looking at them in 2000 or 2001. They might have been already like that for a few years prior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 3 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Cooler than 0z and further east but warm An interesting qpf distribution near the center. Probably a little more widespread than it shows. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: An interesting qpf distribution near the center. Probably a little more widespread than it shows. Yeah I looked at the H5 and then saw the QPF and was thinking "I highly doubt it...".....lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowderBeard Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 Quite the thumper on v16. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 "Signiciant upper middle Atlantic S/CNE mix/snow potential Jan 3+" Tip may have just broken the record for most adjectives in a thread title. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 Ukie doesn't look bad at first glance....can't see thermals yet, but prob cold enough for most...at least away from water Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 This is going to be a storm we wanna root for a Scooter shit streak across Quebec. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 I would hit that Ukie run i believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 4 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: This is going to be a storm we wanna root for a Scooter shit streak across Quebec. Define we Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 Just now, mahk_webstah said: Define we Not we (Us) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 Only 4-4.5 days from go time on various guidance Tip. So definitely not too early. Let’s see how it trends, looks a lot better for your area than mine but I’m interested. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 Just now, dryslot said: I would hit that Ukie run i believe. Wow due north from BM to GOM. Nice storm for we Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 Just now, dryslot said: Not we (Us) You and me and B - we are the not we Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 Just now, mahk_webstah said: Define we AEMATT 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 12z GFS op was quite ideal for me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 1 minute ago, dryslot said: Not we (Us) How do we know this isn't going to try to run into BUF yet? Right now, it's safe, but it wouldn't take much downstream to let this ride pretty far west. That's a pretty sick shortwave in the midwest already neg tilted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 1 minute ago, mahk_webstah said: Wow due north from BM to GOM. Nice storm for we In 24 hours. Somehow that seems suspect but we take. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 1 minute ago, mahk_webstah said: You and me and B - we are the not we I like the high placement on the Ukie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 Just now, ORH_wxman said: How do we know this isn't going to try to run into BUF yet? Right now, it's safe, but it wouldn't take much downstream to let this ride pretty far west. That's a pretty sick shortwave in the midwest already neg tilted We don't know actually, But i would roll the dice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 Just now, weathafella said: In 24 hours. Somehow that seems suspect but we take. Intriguing. As some had suggested recently this pattern is going to have some stuff that pops up on modeling within five days and surprises us. Could be surprise of delight or distress, we shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 When Will throws up the Bruce Willis caution flags I take note Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: How do we know this isn't going to try to run into BUF yet? Right now, it's safe, but it wouldn't take much downstream to let this ride pretty far west. That's a pretty sick shortwave in the midwest already neg tilted That clipper up in Manitoba will be another critical piece. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 30, 2020 Author Share Posted December 30, 2020 16 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: Only 4-4.5 days from go time on various guidance Tip. So definitely not too early. Let’s see how it trends, looks a lot better for your area than mine but I’m interested. I think we do fine from Philly all the way up ... I mean, sans shore communities/or weird offsets.. urban heat island this.. or unlucky that.. But if we are talking just in general thermal field/synoptic dynamics, this probably is an isothermal blue snow at 33.5F 2-meter T's ...and then 30.5 in interior SNE at maturation - Granted, these are initial calls ... so, subject to change - but if I was gambler, that's what it looks like here initially. Euro will be interesting here - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 30, 2020 Author Share Posted December 30, 2020 11 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: How do we know this isn't going to try to run into BUF yet? Right now, it's safe, but it wouldn't take much downstream to let this ride pretty far west. That's a pretty sick shortwave in the midwest already neg tilted It relates to that last bullet point(s) ... I was elaborating on the rather jolt halting in the total synoptic wave translation speeds, and that tandem hemispheric "flashing" in of the -NAO over the western limb of its domain space - partially instructing backlog, partially related to slowing overall. That is all happening like over the next 3 panels after this image above lol... so, yeah, you're caution is certainly warranted, and much of this is predicated on the slowing hemisphere actually succeeding ... It's not going West given that success... If not, up in the air as the pun goes. The other aspect tho is that the models ...pretty much none indicate a west motion with that deep layer wave space - regardless of the downstream train crash. Sometimes it might okay to nod to weighted consensus, too - it's hard since errors have been noted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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