snywx Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 Nice little advisory event for NW crew. 3-5” should do it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sussexcountyobs Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 Surprised the board is so quiet with an incoming winter storm? I get it that will be a minor event. But still, a few inches of snow are incoming . With a work commute on Monday morning. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 5 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said: Surprised the board is so quiet with an incoming winter storm? I get it that will be a minor event. But still, a few inches of snow are incoming . With a work commute on Monday morning. Probably because it’s not a winter storm for the populated metro area. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 4 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said: Surprised the board is so quiet with an incoming winter storm? I get it that will be a minor event. But still, a few inches of snow are incoming . With a work commute on Monday morning. You're obviously in a much better spot than most for this one. The looks really marginal with a relatively low ceiling. And most people are hunting for KUs. But it's also the kind of event that can bring an unexpected surprise with low expectations. That makes it fun to track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sussexcountyobs Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 23 minutes ago, snywx said: Nice little advisory event for NW crew. 3-5” should do it Yes. I agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jeff Grann Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 1 hour ago, HVSnowLover said: Yea that’s why I’m going by overall feeling based on past storms as opposed to models. Every storm like this is junk for anyone near the coast. Near the coast it needs to be below freezing at the start of the storm or need heavy rates to overcome garbage boundary. This storm won’t have either. The track of this storm is fine for the city. The airmass isn't. It's not a big deepener which manufactures it's own cold air thus it's slop down there. There is a reason the city averages less than 30" a year. Any decent Coastal is threading a needle between too tucked in and getting fringed. We have a bit more advantage in the interior with elevation (topography enhancement) and not being next to a warm ocean 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted January 3, 2021 Author Share Posted January 3, 2021 1 hour ago, Brian5671 said: Not heavy enough rates for many and the airmass is garbage....light to moderate snow won't accumulate with warm ground and temps in the mid to upper 30's. Not on the sea level streets, but it's pretty clear to me from the snow depth forecasts that accumulations will occur inland and possibly spotty 6" between I84 and I95. These are the more typical snows for the interior. Will revisit in the morning. Also, sorry for the brevity explaining. Snow depth forecasts from EC/NAM are my base starting points... the rest to me is gravy. Tomorrow morning will examine banding potential... and also noting one reason the extra confidence on snow accumulation , the bulk of this event will probably occur after sundown Sunday. a solid 6-9 hour event of variable intensity snowfall light - moderate. Since temps are generally the concern, let's revisit what the 00z/3 models say and how our temps are looking at daybreak Sunday. Just seems like a nice wet snow fall for the Merrit Parkway on across northwestnj/ne PA and se NYS. Til tomorrow. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 Updated 8:10PM @crossbowftw3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jeff Grann Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 17 minutes ago, JoshSnow said: I take it back there’s no cold air in place. I don’t think it’ll snow in New York City maybe some white taint like everyone else said. You are on the road to recovery from SAD (Snow Addiction Disorder) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 Nam is really dry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 Rgem taken from SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 5 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Rgem taken from SNE Colder and wetter than nam. My gut says sell this run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted January 3, 2021 Author Share Posted January 3, 2021 Good Sunday morning everyone, Jan 3. Not quite what I'd like to see but something. A light snow and sleet event, mostly snow as outlined in the following taken from the OBS - Nowcast topic. RGEM seems a little prolific and WPC probs for 4" are rather low so this may not turn out all that much above a general 2-4". I've speculated on some 5's in the elevations (maybe an isolated 6), mainly w of the CT River and particularly the Poconos. I plan on using my snow blower early Monday morning to clear off the 2+" amounts off a long driveway here in nw NJ. Recovery will be fast tomorrow morning for whatever we get. Mostly all rain should be confined to the region s of I-78, LI-NYC. Sleet or snow begins near I78 ~9 or 10A and spreads northeast, possibly possibly drying out to flurries reaching CT/se NYS midday. Thereafter the bigger part of this event occurs 2PM-2AM as mostly wet snow just nw of I95. Heaviest snowfall seems slated for the elevations including the Poconos-Catskills with 3-5", 2 to possibly 5" rest of se NYS, nw NJ along and north of I80 to the Merritt Parkway-in other words west of the CT River, but possibly a dryer zone of under 2" to at most 4" ne CT-central MA. These amounts are uncertain-based on guidance through the 06z/3 cycle. There will be melting on pavement today below 700 feet elevation during the day but a plowable snow seems certain for the hilly areas, especially w of the CT River with accumulation on all untreated surfaces after sundown. The precipitation driver will probably at least in part be an inverted trough developing northwest from a rapidly deepening low pressure system heading east northeast off the mid Atlantic coast. The inverted portion of the trough should be back to the Poconos and that I think is why the heavier qpf tends to be modeled there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 The new HRRR, NAM (12K, 3K) are nothing burgers south of Orange and Putnam counties. Rockland and Westchester may not see more than an inch out of this and it looks like it’s going to turn to rain for several hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 17 minutes ago, snowman19 said: The new HRRR, NAM (12K, 3K) are nothing burgers south of Orange and Putnam counties. Rockland and Westchester may not see more than an inch out of this and it looks like it’s going to turn to rain for several hours Surface temps already above freezing in most areas, not promising but not surprising 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 Moderate Snow 31F with this first burst moving across eastern PA. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 12z HRRR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 55 minutes ago, snowman19 said: The new HRRR, NAM (12K, 3K) are nothing burgers south of Orange and Putnam counties. Rockland and Westchester may not see more than an inch out of this and it looks like it’s going to turn to rain for several hours This is a nothing burger for alot of people Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 This initial batch could be mostly snow and sleet for a lot of areas. But after a possible lull late morning/early afternoon, I'm concerned that the southerly flow above 925mb associated with the ULL could change a lot of places to light rain outside the far interior. Dynamical cooling with heavier precipitation, or a rapidly deepening low (and associated 2nd mid-level lows) could offset this. But recent trends have moved in the opposite direction. I like the area ~10 miles north of I-80 and west of 287 for a few inches of snow. South of there, if precip. rates are high enough, I think we could cool the column and at least coat the ground. If it's mostly light precip., I think it will be difficult to accumulate much below 800ft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 23 minutes ago, Tatamy said: 12z HRRR Is that most of the storm? If so that’s a pretty big bust for HV and NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 3 minutes ago, JoshSnow said: Honestly I’m going to bet that this overperforms because in situations like this models seem to underestimate dynamic and evaporative cooling. I’m going to say it overperforms. There is no heavy precip to create dynamic evaporative cooling. The models have trended drier 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 5 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: Is that most of the storm? If so that’s a pretty big bust for HV and NE Yes Models have trended drier 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 2 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: Is that most of the storm? If so that’s a pretty big bust for HV and NE It looks like the last couple of NAM runs. Not much of a bust IMO considering the modeling trends over the last day and a half. Maybe a bust based on the big runs of a few days ago. Or even the RGEM yesterday. Let's see what happens first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geeter1 Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 I'm about 5 miles north of Allentown, and we are approaching and unexpected 2" already from the first band. Temp 28° 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 First flakes flying. Elevation of 730’ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 10 minutes ago, geeter1 said: I'm about 5 miles north of Allentown, and we are approaching and unexpected 2" already from the first band. Temp 28° 12z NAM has totally missed this initial burst of snow. According to it the Lehigh Valley (I am in Bethlehem Twp.) gets no snow today. It's only 9 AM and a lot of models have already busted on the day. I am at 1" myself and it is still coming down. The 12z HRRR has trended colder for the area near I-78 in eastern PA and NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 Am I missing something? Is the radar supposed to fill in later after this burst?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 10 minutes ago, geeter1 said: I'm about 5 miles north of Allentown, and we are approaching and unexpected 2" already from the first band. Temp 28° I love it! That initial band looks healthy. I will try to enjoy whatever falls here in NJ, because it could be the main show today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 3 minutes ago, North and West said: Am I missing something? Is the radar supposed to fill in later after this burst? . Yes it is progged to fill in later. Question will be precip types. Most models are keeping precip type rain for most with snow north of I-80 /I-95 in NY as the afternoon progresses. New HRRR is colder and would have more snow south of I-80 in NJ/PA. Another piece of this is the inverted trough that is expected to be set up particularly across eastern PA. This will effect rates and thus precip types. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geeter1 Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 13 minutes ago, Tatamy said: 12z NAM has totally missed this initial burst of snow. According to it the Lehigh Valley (I am in Bethlehem Twp.) gets no snow today. It's only 9 AM and a lot of models have already busted on the day. I am at 1" myself and it is still coming down. The 12z HRRR has trended colder for the area near I-78 in eastern PA and NJ. Fingers crossed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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