crossbowftw3 Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 7 minutes ago, snywx said: Here in western Orange County I’m thinking 3-5” with those 5” amounts AOA 1000’. Nice little event regardless. Pretty reasonable guess, perhaps hold some 6 or more to anything even higher than 1500 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 2 minutes ago, JoshSnow said: How much is the city getting out of this? Maybe a flake or 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 white rain south of 287 tbh. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 3 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said: white rain south of 287 tbh. My gut feeling too but depends on surface at start of storm and how intense precip comes in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 19 minutes ago, JoshSnow said: How much is the city getting out of this? White rain 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 Euro has some accumulating snow for Bronx and eastern LI but I’m gonna go with gut feeling and climo and still think it’s white rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northof78 Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 2 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: Euro has some accumulating snow for Bronx and eastern LI but I’m gonna go with gut feeling and climo and still think it’s white rain Timing is very good, and most of subforum outside of high density NYC forecast to get down to upper 20s/low 30s tonight, not sure surface is that much of an issue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 Just now, Northof78 said: Timing is very good, and most of subforum outside of high density NYC forecast to get down to upper 20s/low 30s tonight, not sure surface is that much of an issue Yea the earlier in the day it comes in the better chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 1 hour ago, HVSnowLover said: Euro has some accumulating snow for Bronx and eastern LI but I’m gonna go with gut feeling and climo and still think it’s white rain Areas north of I-87 should do ok. South of 87, Rockland, Westchester, Bergen.....this is probably 1-2 inches of very wet snow at best, which is a gift given the putrid airmass, and I think those areas may fight rain at times. Bad boundary layer, my highs up here go into the upper 30’s tomorrow. As far as ratios, those 10:1 ratio maps are going to be way off. It’s probably more like 5:1 ratios tomorrow south of 87 Edit: I meant I-84. My apologies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 1 minute ago, snowman19 said: Areas north of I-87 should do ok. South of 87, Rockland, Westchester, Bergen.....this is probably 1-2 inches of very wet snow at best, which is a gift given the putrid airmass, and I think those areas may fight rain at times. Bad boundary layer, my highs up here go into the upper 30’s tomorrow. As far as ratios, those 10:1 ratio maps are going to be way off. It’s probably more like 5:1 ratios tomorrow south of 87 Agree I’m also thinking 1-2 inches on cars and grass in those areas which agree is a gift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 5 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Areas north of I-87 should do ok. South of 87, Rockland, Westchester, Bergen.....this is probably 1-2 inches of very wet snow at best, which is a gift given the putrid airmass, and I think those areas may fight rain at times. Bad boundary layer, my highs up here go into the upper 30’s tomorrow. As far as ratios, those 10:1 ratio maps are going to be way off. It’s probably more like 5:1 ratios tomorrow south of 87 Even up here ratios are gonna be crap.. I’m thinking 8:1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sussexcountyobs Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 Forecasts for my area are all over the place? From 1" to 5"? I would think 3-4" is a good bet, with maybe an upside of 5"? It is supposed to get down to mid 20's tonight. IDK? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 12 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said: Forecasts for my area are all over the place? From 1" to 5"? I would think 3-4" is a good bet, with maybe an upside of 5"? It is supposed to get down to mid 20's tonight. IDK? Latitude as well as elevation will be your friend tomorrow. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 9 minutes ago, snywx said: Latitude as well as elevation will be your friend tomorrow. This is going to be an ugly NAM run for snow it would appear, still running Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 36 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Areas north of I-87 should do ok. South of 87, Rockland, Westchester, Bergen.....this is probably 1-2 inches of very wet snow at best, which is a gift given the putrid airmass, and I think those areas may fight rain at times. Bad boundary layer, my highs up here go into the upper 30’s tomorrow. As far as ratios, those 10:1 ratio maps are going to be way off. It’s probably more like 5:1 ratios tomorrow south of 87 South of what road? 87 runs north-south, not sure how you get south of 87. Did you mean east or west of 87? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 Just now, IrishRob17 said: South of what road? 87 runs north-south, not sure how you get south of 87. Did you mean east or west of 87? I’m sorry. 84. Totally misspoke. 84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 I’ll go 2” for HPN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 5 minutes ago, snowman19 said: I’m sorry. 84. Totally misspoke. 84 Maybe although I could see Harriman area doing well with this storm and they are south of I84. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 Nam is warmer again. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 1 minute ago, JoshSnow said: Climo? Lmao this is a 1-3 event for the city. The time to stick even during the day is now it’s January! Watch it over perform! Low is offshore this is a snow event for the city and west Climo in the sense lack of cold air in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 5 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: Nam is warmer again. Yep also weak and disjointed. It has it flipping between rain and snow here in Rockland and what snow falls is light. This is trending into pretty much a nothing burger 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 2 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Yep also weak and disjointed. It has it flipping between rain and snow here in Rockland and what snow falls is light. This is trending into pretty much a nothing burger That’s probably why it’s warm. Light rates won’t do it with this airmass south of Orange County 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Binghamton NY 422 PM EST Sat Jan 2 2021 NYZ062-032130- /O.EXA.KBGM.WW.Y.0001.210103T1600Z-210104T0400Z/ Sullivan- Including the city of Monticello 422 PM EST Sat Jan 2 2021 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM EST SUNDAY... * WHAT...Wet snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 5 inches. * WHERE...Sullivan county. * WHEN...Snow will develop late in the morning Sunday, peak in intensity in the afternoon and taper off Sunday evening. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 19 minutes ago, crossbowftw3 said: URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Binghamton NY 422 PM EST Sat Jan 2 2021 NYZ062-032130- /O.EXA.KBGM.WW.Y.0001.210103T1600Z-210104T0400Z/ Sullivan- Including the city of Monticello 422 PM EST Sat Jan 2 2021 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM EST SUNDAY... * WHAT...Wet snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 5 inches. * WHERE...Sullivan county. * WHEN...Snow will develop late in the morning Sunday, peak in intensity in the afternoon and taper off Sunday evening. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Nice today tomorrow for us and maybe it overperforms a little? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST SUNDAY NIGHT... * WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 5 inches. * WHERE....Litchfield, Berkshire, Dutchess and Ulster counties. * WHEN...From 1 PM Sunday to midnight Sunday night. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow will quickly overspread the advisory area during the early to mid afternoon hours and is expected to taper off by around midnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 51 minutes ago, sferic said: Nice today tomorrow for us and maybe it overperforms a little? It could, but only by an inch or so 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jeff Grann Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 2 hours ago, JoshSnow said: Climo? Lmao this is a 1-3 event for the city. The time to stick even during the day is now it’s January! Watch it over perform! Low is offshore this is a snow event for the city and west Yes like the last one when the storm was shown inland SNJ, the mix line was going to stay South of the city when in reality it made it past Kingston. You need to accept reality or this is not the hobby for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sussexcountyobs Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 I feel pretty confident by me 3-4". Maybe an upside of 5"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 16 minutes ago, Jeff Grann said: Yes like the last one when the storm was shown inland SNJ, the mix line was going to stay South of the city when in reality it made it past Kingston. You need to accept reality or this is not the hobby for you. Yea that’s why I’m going by overall feeling based on past storms as opposed to models. Every storm like this is junk for anyone near the coast. Near the coast it needs to be below freezing at the start of the storm or need heavy rates to overcome garbage boundary. This storm won’t have either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 3 hours ago, snowman19 said: Yep also weak and disjointed. It has it flipping between rain and snow here in Rockland and what snow falls is light. This is trending into pretty much a nothing burger Not heavy enough rates for many and the airmass is garbage....light to moderate snow won't accumulate with warm ground and temps in the mid to upper 30's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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