HVSnowLover Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 RGEM is basically 6-12 inches for the whole subforum nw of I287. Probably too over juiced. But if you cut it in half 3-6 is possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted January 2, 2021 Author Share Posted January 2, 2021 January 2, 2021 605AM Update: Am probably not commenting for our NYC forum on anything beyond 9AM January 4, which is about the still possible extension for eastern New England. That part of our oncoming light to moderate Nor'Easter snow event for the entire I84 corridor, will not happen for us. The remainder of the NY Day comments below seem reasonable. My anticipation is a widespread plowable 2-6" elevation dependent snow event from I95 northward through the I84 corridor and probably I90 eastern NYS and northern NJ/ne PA eastward through southern New England. I-84 valleys will manage this better because of marginal melting temps (32-34F) and the southeast edge near I95 will also be manageable, in part because a little rain/freezing rain/sleet is possible there. as well as the daytime temps near 33F. So, it's a mixed bag but the I84 corridor should enjoy this, with the primary event mainly Noon Sunday-6AM Monday. This storm will probably affect some of the return home holiday travel and also may force some Monday morning 2 hr cleanup delays, especially CT-MA portion where it still may be snowing a bit. NYC-LI should see a touch of snow/sleet but whether it measures or not and where, i don't know. My guess is eastern LI may do a little better and thats where there will probably be some wind gusts to 35 MPH but NYC might also see less than an inch?? There will be 1 or 2 brief periods of moderate snow with this event, but I'm not thinking of more than 10 to 1 snow ratios, possibly only 7 or 8 to 1 near I95. Will begin the OBS/NOWcast thread later tonight. Earliest part of snow/sleet/very brief ice arrival is around 8A-10AM Sunday for our NJ eastern PA membership. I don't anticipate adding any further potentially helpful information until maybe this evening. Noting the WPC ensembles for more than 2" are not very enthusiastic for this event, so we need to keep in mind failure. They also weren't as enthusiastic as they should have been for glaze this past night and the SPc SREF did much better. It already has 2-4" in ne PA by 7PM tomorrow night. Keep an eye on the SPC HREF MEAN snowfall after the 12z/2 cycle completes around 1030AM. The HRRRX was all over the place for this freezing rain/sleet/snow event that is wrapping up now and am not referencing it today. I as others here , like consistency in the modeling. One event at a time. reposted here at 755A 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 6z Euro shows some snow down to the coast. This looks like a good event for inland areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 14 hours ago, NepaJames8602 said: Where in the Poconos are you? I’m in Southern Wayne county, the far northern portion of the Pocono Plateau. Located in Pocono springs, in Newfoundland. I’m at just under 2,100 feet, roughly 2,080’. 3 to 6 sounds very reasonable for us at and above 2k. Penn Forest Township near Bear Creek and Lake Harmony, around the same elevation as you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northof78 Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 possible nice little front end thump per 12z NAM... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: 6z Euro shows some snow down to the coast. This looks like a good event for inland areas. 6Z NAM is warmer again, pushes the snow line back well inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 1 minute ago, Northof78 said: possible nice little front end thump per 12z NAM... Maybe. We have to see more layers than just 850s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northof78 Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 No sleet with this one, rain or snow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 Just now, Northof78 said: No sleet with this one, rain or snow... Agree but 925 temps and surface temps will determine rain vs snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 Precip type maps are snow to rain for NYC on the NAM. All rain for LI. Rain/Snow line makes it to about the famous I287 dividing line at the warmest point. Decent run. It's 34 at Central Park during the front end thump, not awful actually Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 1 minute ago, HVSnowLover said: Precip type maps are snow to rain for NYC on the NAM. All Rain for LI. Rain/Snow line makes it to about the famous I287 dividing line at the warmest point. Decent run. Got some snow maps for that or? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 Is this one missing NNJ (MMU)?My Christmas present was a new EGO snowblower, so I’m wondering whether or not to move it out of the shed during the nice weather today. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 3 minutes ago, crossbowftw3 said: Got some snow maps for that or? Don't unfortunately but it's about .5-.6 qpf for most of the region, temps never go above freezing in your area so would think that's a solid 3-6 inches at least, possibly more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 1 minute ago, HVSnowLover said: Don't unfortunately but it's about .5-.6 qpf for most of the region, temps never go above freezing in your area so would think that's a solid 3-6 inches at least, possibly more. 3-6 is still a solid bet, maybe swing up to 4-8 depending. Going to be a nice event not unlike last January 18 (I think?) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 2 minutes ago, crossbowftw3 said: 3-6 is still a solid bet, maybe swing up to 4-8 depending. Going to be a nice event not unlike last January 18 (I think?) Should also say if there are to be any 8"+ totals it's definitely eastern New England as the low gets going Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 3 minutes ago, crossbowftw3 said: Should also say if there are to be any 8"+ totals it's definitely eastern New England as the low gets going Agree someone there will get crushed but possibly some elevated areas of this subforum may get 8 inches or so 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 2 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: Agree someone there will get crushed but possibly some elevated areas of this subforum may get 8 inches or so I'd favor 1250-1500+' areas for the 8 inch totals and a general 2-6 everywhere else. Ratios will probably not be the perfect 10:1 but still pretty close regardless. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sussexcountyobs Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 32 minutes ago, North and West said: Is this one missing NNJ (MMU)? My Christmas present was a new EGO snowblower, so I’m wondering whether or not to move it out of the shed during the nice weather today. . Mt. Holly snow map this morning shows 0" for Morristown 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 RGEM looks decent 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 8 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: RGEM looks decent Signed, sealed, and delivered? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 10 minutes ago, crossbowftw3 said: Signed, sealed, and delivered? Yea I don’t buy hpn getting 4.7 inches in this setup but would be nice lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 36 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: Yea I don’t buy hpn getting 4.7 inches in this setup but would be nice lol I will take my few inches and be satisfied Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 24 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: Yea I don’t buy hpn getting 4.7 inches in this setup but would be nice lol HPN should get some accumulation. Probably not 4”, though. 80% of EPS members show 1” or more. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 @crossbowftw3I'll take 6" and be happy in Liberty NY at 1,500 feet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 53 minutes ago, White Gorilla said: I will take my few inches and be satisfied Yeah, still looking like 2-4 in our area. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 37 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said: Yeah, still looking like 2-4 in our area. Yea it’s pretty solid all snow event up there at this point. The iffy areas look like Westchester, Rockland and NE NJ. Depending on what model depends if it’s mostly rain vs a few inches of wet snow. Tough call because I think in this setup the rain/snow line won’t move that much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 2 hours ago, crossbowftw3 said: Signed, sealed, and delivered? Sign it. Away from the coast the airmass isn't as bad as it's made out to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 6 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: Sign it. Away from the coast the airmass isn't as bad as it's made out to be. It looked worse earlier in the week. Now it doesn’t look too bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 57 minutes ago, sferic said: @crossbowftw3I'll take 6" and be happy in Liberty NY at 1,500 feet Your house probably gets the 6” if I’m being honest right now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 3 hours ago, crossbowftw3 said: 3-6 is still a solid bet, maybe swing up to 4-8 depending. Going to be a nice event not unlike last January 18 (I think?) Here in western Orange County I’m thinking 3-5” with those 5” amounts AOA 1000’. Nice little event regardless. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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