eduggs Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 34 minutes ago, wdrag said: Agreed 100% ... marginal but need to see FGEN mid level convergence near I84. Too early yet, i think. Gotta go. Thanks for the inputs. Thank YOU for your input. We all read it eagerly. I remember reading your forecast discussions in the early 2000s while I was in college. I bet a lot more people read those than you realized. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 The 18z RGEM is warm and tucked. The coastal low tracks from Tom's river to ELI. The snow axis is mostly Catskills, Capital District, VT. Maybe some snow to start and end for the Poconos and mid Hudson Valley etc. I don't like this run but I buy it. Back to back ski country base building events it looks like. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 38 minutes ago, eduggs said: The 18z RGEM is warm and tucked. The coastal low tracks from Tom's river to ELI. The snow axis is mostly Catskills, Capital District, VT. Maybe some snow to start and end for the Poconos and mid Hudson Valley etc. I don't like this run but I buy it. Back to back ski country base building events it looks like. Thanks for buying a run you don't like. Refreshing and rare in this forum. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 1 hour ago, eduggs said: The 18z RGEM is warm and tucked. The coastal low tracks from Tom's river to ELI. The snow axis is mostly Catskills, Capital District, VT. Maybe some snow to start and end for the Poconos and mid Hudson Valley etc. I don't like this run but I buy it. Back to back ski country base building events it looks like. Unfortunately given how every storm basically has trended since the start of last winter I’d buy the more nw outcomes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 1 hour ago, eduggs said: The 18z RGEM is warm and tucked. The coastal low tracks from Tom's river to ELI. The snow axis is mostly Catskills, Capital District, VT. Maybe some snow to start and end for the Poconos and mid Hudson Valley etc. I don't like this run but I buy it. Back to back ski country base building events it looks like. Seems like a pretty vigorous upper low coming through so I could see it trying to tuck into the coast. Like others said it’s a done deal for a washout down here regardless so hopefully some closer in NW suburbs can have something decent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 Upton already has 1-3" in my p/c forecast. Even up here in western orange county I think its gonna be elevation dependent. Im sure in higher rates, valley locations may get a quick thump but overall the magic number with these marginal events up here tends to be 750' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 24 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: Unfortunately given how every storm basically has trended since the start of last winter I’d buy the more nw outcomes It's funny how the atmosphere has found all sorts of ways to snow in SNE and miss or rain on NJ (and sometimes the rest of the metro too) so far this year. Cities like Hartford, Providence, and Boston are way ahead of us. Even Danbury, New Haven, Taunton etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 17 minutes ago, eduggs said: It's funny how the atmosphere has found all sorts of ways to snow in SNE and miss or rain on NJ (and sometimes the rest of the metro too) so far this year. Cities like Hartford, Providence, and Boston are way ahead of us. Even Danbury, New Haven, Taunton etc. Essentially how it’s been for the last 15 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted January 1, 2021 Author Share Posted January 1, 2021 2 hours ago, eduggs said: The 18z RGEM is warm and tucked. The coastal low tracks from Tom's river to ELI. The snow axis is mostly Catskills, Capital District, VT. Maybe some snow to start and end for the Poconos and mid Hudson Valley etc. I don't like this run but I buy it. Back to back ski country base building events it looks like. I don't like it either... probably good to wait it out a few runs. On that RGEM, notice the banding developing VT... if it occurs as portrayed... pretty darn good snow rates there. That's a nice signal... maybe it will edge down to I84? Till tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 2 hours ago, HVSnowLover said: Unfortunately given how every storm basically has trended since the start of last winter I’d buy the more nw outcomes Eps is even further southeast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 51 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Eps is even further southeast We’ll see. I still think this is an elevation storm that is 1-3 at best in lower elevations even inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 33 degrees on the coast on the Nam Inland areas look good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 The NAM is definitely colder and takes a more offshore track with the secondary low. End result is a less intense initial band, a much less pronounced dry slot, and a longer duration of light to possibly moderate precipitation. More snow for NJ and SENY, probably less snow for Poconos and Catskills. The less-tucked solutions are still on the table obviously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 8 minutes ago, MJO812 said: 33 degrees on the coast on the Nam Inland areas look good So is every model more flat than cmc/rgem? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 Possibly my favorite thing about this NAM run is that it DOESN'T slam SNE. I hope and pray. I personally don't favor this type of solution. But I do buy seeing more QPF into the southern tier and western NY associated with the primary, and a little bit less in EPA. Lots of model runs still to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 4 hours ago, eduggs said: It's funny how the atmosphere has found all sorts of ways to snow in SNE and miss or rain on NJ (and sometimes the rest of the metro too) so far this year. Cities like Hartford, Providence, and Boston are way ahead of us. Even Danbury, New Haven, Taunton etc. I'm 20 minutes from Danbury, it hasn't been terribly wintry here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 1 hour ago, eduggs said: Possibly my favorite thing about this NAM run is that it DOESN'T slam SNE. I hope and pray. I personally don't favor this type of solution. But I do buy seeing more QPF into the southern tier and western NY associated with the primary, and a little bit less in EPA. Lots of model runs still to go. Cmc crushes Boston Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 Thing is the snow that is crushing SNE isn’t even in the NAMs range. They get the heavy stuff from the capture that models are hinting at. The NAM wouldn’t have done it this run if we saw beyond 84 hrs though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted January 1, 2021 Author Share Posted January 1, 2021 NY Day 2021 558AM quick update: Extended the event date to Jan 4. Ensembles suggesting a pretty good chance of 3+ inches for some the I84 corridor high terrain in possibly two long duration episodes. A short wave diving into the back side of the initial short wave trough may prolong the event considerably for the New England portion of the forum by forming a a very slow moving upper low along the New England coast. So it's complex but potent, especially if the 850-500 MB lows form in a favorable position for banding on the northwest side of this storm near I84. Just too early to overcommit but this could be a nice snow event for the I84 corridor and as previously proposed (modeled), can't rule out a touch of wet snow on the back side for NYC and especially eastern LI on the 4th. Just too early, especially with marginal thermal profiles and absolutely do not want to buy into any 8" amounts seen on some of the single member operational models for New England, at least not this early with so many differing solutions. If it's progressive and mainly afternoon of the 3rd into early 4th, then the 8" amounts won't happen and this would be an interior I84 standard climo modest event. Graphics is the 00z/1 GEFS prob of 2+ inches for this coming storm-- 10 to 1 ratio. Just an idea of primary risk area. Doubt if I'll comment again on this snowier looking Jan 3-4 event until today's is complete, which means I'll try to add some useful thoughts-graphics tomorrow morning - Jan 2. Have a good start to the New Year! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 1 hour ago, wdrag said: NY Day 2021 558AM quick update: Extended the event date to Jan 4. Ensembles suggesting a pretty good chance of 3+ inches for some the I84 corridor high terrain in possibly two long duration episodes. A short wave diving into the back side of the initial short wave trough may prolong the event considerably for the New England portion of the forum by forming a a very slow moving upper low along the New England coast. So it's complex but potent, especially if the 850-500 MB lows form in a favorable position for banding on the northwest side of this storm near I84. Just too early to overcommit but this could be a nice snow event for the I84 corridor and as previously proposed (modeled), can't rule out a touch of wet snow on the back side for NYC and especially eastern LI on the 4th. Just too early, especially with marginal thermal profiles and absolutely do not want to buy into any 8" amounts seen on some of the single member operational models for New England, at least not this early with so many differing solutions. If it's progressive and mainly afternoon of the 3rd into early 4th, then the 8" amounts won't happen and this would be an interior I84 standard climo modest event. Graphics is the 00z/1 GEFS prob of 2+ inches for this coming storm-- 10 to 1 ratio. Just an idea of primary risk area. Doubt if I'll comment again on this snowier looking Jan 3-4 event until today's is complete, which means I'll try to add some useful thoughts-graphics tomorrow morning - Jan 2. Have a good start to the New Year! When Walt's posting about I-84 is it safe to say he's speaking of his CWA? So like the Brewster, NY - Scranton stretch? Hopefully it extends to include the Pike - 495 region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 40 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: When Walt's posting about I-84 is it safe to say he's speaking of his CWA? So like the Brewster, NY - Scranton stretch? Hopefully it extends to include the Pike - 495 region. Yes. There are occasional references to the potential further east. Hartford and Worcester do enter the conversation but not often. I dont know if more than a few here understand the Tolland zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted January 1, 2021 Author Share Posted January 1, 2021 1 hour ago, moneypitmike said: When Walt's posting about I-84 is it safe to say he's speaking of his CWA? So like the Brewster, NY - Scranton stretch? Hopefully it extends to include the Pike - 495 region. I84 corridor is in my mind ~25 either side of entire stretch I84. Scranton to Worcester (excluding CT coast where the 25 mi mark overlaps). Yes se NYS/ne PA. Hope that helps. Have a day. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northof78 Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 11 hours ago, gravitylover said: I'm 20 minutes from Danbury, it hasn't been terribly wintry here. At least twice as much snow as here. I even remember snow in Putnam back in October. Several inches in Fahnestock. I've measured about 6 or 7" cumulative on the year. Morris, Hunterdon, Middlesex, and Somerset counties in NJ have not done well so far. 4 hours of heavy snow on Dec. 17 has been about the extent of it. Admittedly those were 4 glorious hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 4 minutes ago, eduggs said: At least twice as much snow as here. I even remember snow in Putnam back in October. I think I'm around 15", sure it's more than down there but that's to be expected. I get about 50"/yr so I guess we're running about normal but it has been fairly warm and more wet than white. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 1 hour ago, Northof78 said: Think we have to careful with ratios since it won’t be 10:1 in this setup with lousy surface temps but it is nice to see the snow line at least come down to the city. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 12z CMC 24 hour snowfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 3 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said: 12z CMC 24 hour snowfall Came south it looks like. Trend toward other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 23 minutes ago, gravitylover said: I think I'm around 15", sure it's more than down there but that's to be expected. I get about 50"/yr so I guess we're running about normal but it has been fairly warm and more wet than white. We're talking about small numbers and small sample sizes, so it doesn't really matter. But I think your area averages about the same snowfall as the elevated NW half of Morris and Passaic counties. The snow climatology of the Hudson Highlands and elevated lower HV is very similar to the highlands NW of I-287 in NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 1 hour ago, HVSnowLover said: Came south it looks like. Trend toward other models. Looks overdone for POU. Only expecting 3-4 inches max factoring in ratios and being at lower elevation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now