HeadInTheClouds Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 38 minutes ago, White Gorilla said: Looks overdone for POU. Only expecting 3-4 inches max factoring in ratios and being at lower elevation. Agreed. Im not buying any 6+ accums. Most models have QPF .50 or less for event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 26 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said: Agreed. Im not buying any 6+ accums. Most models have QPF .50 or less for event. Problem is the 10:1 ratio snowmaps, first off, those ratios are not happening, they will be much lower, second, they count sleet as snow. The boundary layer is going to suck. Highs are approaching 40 degrees that day even up here in Rockland County Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 6 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Problem is the 10:1 ratio snowmaps, first off, those ratios are not happening, they will be much lower, second, they count sleet as snow. The boundary layer is going to suck. Highs are approaching 40 degrees that day even up here in Rockland County Agree totally. It’s also not going to be all snow I don’t think anywhere south of Ulster so bouncing around precip types will also affect accumulations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 38 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Problem is the 10:1 ratio snowmaps, first off, those ratios are not happening, they will be much lower, second, they count sleet as snow. The boundary layer is going to suck. Highs are approaching 40 degrees that day even up here in Rockland County There should be enough cold air 84 and north to give a 2-4 inch snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 6 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said: There should be enough cold air 84 and north to give a 2-4 inch snowfall. Expecting 3-6 here in the Poconos at 2000 ft. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 20 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said: There should be enough cold air 84 and north to give a 2-4 inch snowfall. 2-4” is a good call for those around I84.. Anyone above 1000’ could see a bit more 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 32 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said: There should be enough cold air 84 and north to give a 2-4 inch snowfall. Agree. This is an 84 and north event. I’d honestly want to be north of 84 for this one 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 Just now, snowman19 said: Agree. This is an 84 and north event. I’d honestly want to be north of 84 for this one Yea maybe a slushy inch for Rockland and Northern Westchester but in terms of any real snow north of I84 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 25 minutes ago, snywx said: 2-4” is a good call for those around I84.. Anyone above 1000’ could see a bit more Currently also guessing 2-4/3-6 here in Sullivan. At my elevation rain mixing in would probably cap things a bit, but we’ll see what happens over the next day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 10 minutes ago, crossbowftw3 said: Currently also guessing 2-4/3-6 here in Sullivan. At my elevation rain mixing in would probably cap things a bit, but we’ll see what happens over the next day Don’t think rain mixes in in Sullivan based on latest guidance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 3k Nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 Just now, MJO812 said: 3k Nam That is map is way overdone. This is the more realistic one: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=nam3km®ion=neus&pkg=asnowd&runtime=2021010118&fh=60 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 3 minutes ago, snowman19 said: That is map is way overdone. This is the more realistic one: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=nam3km®ion=neus&pkg=asnowd&runtime=2021010118&fh=60 Now I know you are trolling. No one uses this map. It's always wrong. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 4 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Now I know you are trolling. No one uses this map. It's always wrong. Not trolling. That 10:1 ratio map is severely overdone and wrong. It incorrectly counts sleet as snow. You aren’t getting 10:1 ratios, it’s going to be way lower than that and the boundary layer is really horrible. There is also a mid-level warm punch, the NAM has it going to all rain even up here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: Now I know you are trolling. No one uses this map. It's always wrong. In this storm the first map won’t verify. The airmass is lousy unfortunately. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 18z RGEM comes in colder. I would go with 5:1 ratios between I78 and I80. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 55 minutes ago, Tatamy said: 18z RGEM comes in colder. I would go with 5:1 ratios between I78 and I80. Admit it’s trending colder still think its a minor event but interesting rgem/nam both now haven the rain/snow line right near or over the city Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 24 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: Admit it’s trending colder still think its a minor event but interesting rgem/nam both now haven the rain/snow line right near or over the city We will have to see if subsequent runs are like this. Previous runs of the RGEM have kept the R/S line mostly north of I80. Up to now this model has been steadfast with a warmer solution. Agree that this is a minor event for most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: Now I know you are trolling. No one uses this map. It's always wrong. Lmao. Weenie of the year post. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NepaJames8602 Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 3 hours ago, LibertyBell said: Expecting 3-6 here in the Poconos at 2000 ft. Where in the Poconos are you? I’m in Southern Wayne county, the far northern portion of the Pocono Plateau. Located in Pocono springs, in Newfoundland. I’m at just under 2,100 feet, roughly 2,080’. 3 to 6 sounds very reasonable for us at and above 2k. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northof78 Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 NAM will be very interesting for some/most on the sub forum, LI def included...most of this Rt.78/80 north is frozen... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 Just now, Northof78 said: NAM will be very interesting for some/most on the sub forum, LI def included... No. (LI and NYC anyway). I couldn’t care less about white rain. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 9 minutes ago, Northof78 said: NAM will be very interesting for some/most on the sub forum, LI def included...most of this Rt.78/80 north is frozen... Yep here is the 3k Nam Interesting 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 8 minutes ago, jm1220 said: No. (LI and NYC anyway). I couldn’t care less about white rain. This reminds me of the event on 12/14. Never really turned over to snow near the city or the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 18 minutes ago, Northof78 said: NAM will be very interesting for some/most on the sub forum, LI def included...most of this Rt.78/80 north is frozen... Precip types are showing rain for nyc/LI verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 4 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: Precip types are showing rain for nyc/LI verbatim. Not 3k Nam Its rain to snow on the coast 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 Definitely trending colder though at the surface, even immediate nw burbs are now 1-3 inches snow depth 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 Usually these setups favor NE and possibly eastern LI but right now I’d say a light to moderate snow event inland with rain at the coast due to precip being too light to overcome marginal boundary layer. Big snowstorm potential for NE with this as always it seems. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 1 hour ago, jm1220 said: No. (LI and NYC anyway). I couldn’t care less about white rain. NAM is a wet snow at 34, but not strictly white rain. Actually if that verified, I would expect the surface at 32 and everything above less than 32. Getting it to verify is the problem. Edit, this is 3k NAM. 12k still has us under the sea Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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