Sunday-Monday Jan 3-4 potential rapidly intensifying ene moving nor'easter along the mid Atlantic coast with rain to snow mainly I84 to near I95 north through west of NYC

[MJO812]

18 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

Because it's the most south and east as usual. I don't trust it. 

Cmc is warm for many areas

[eduggs]

Not a lot of wiggle room on those GEFS for the metro area. The CMC looks quite a bit warmer.

[eduggs]

With a primary into Rochester NY I like the Catskills for a quick hard hitting thumping. Flakes could fall much further south, but once again the large-scale synoptics don't favor our region.

[eduggs]

The regional Canadian is warm, but still really close to a paste bomb for areas just NW of the corridor. As depicted, Walt's I-84 area is the dividing line on the CMC.

[LibertyBell]

33 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

IF the precip is heavy enough it could snow all the way to the coast but a a big IF could have an effect on both NFC playoff spot games in NJ and PA Sunday afternoon

I wouldn't stress out over it, there's more of a chance of getting hit by lightning from that storm than getting snow to the coast.

 

[Stormlover74]

21 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said:

Yay. Another rain storm 

 

[HeadInTheClouds]

5 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Cmc is warm for many areas

It's also further north and west with the low than the GFS, just like Euro and Ukie. I think NYC metro and Long island are going to see a cold rain unfortunately. I may see a few inches but it won't be all snow even by me 20 miles north of 84. 

[LibertyBell]

Just now, HeadInTheClouds said:

It's also further north and west with the low than the GFS, just like Euro and Ukie. I think NYC metro and Long island are going to see a cold rain unfortunately. I may see a few inches but it won't be all snow even by me 20 miles north of 84. 

if it's going to rain, why can't we get a warm rain?

[NEG NAO]

Just now, LibertyBell said:

I wouldn't stress out over it, there's more of a chance of getting hit by lightning from that storm than getting snow to the coast.

 

I disagree there is still a  low chance of flakes in the air along the coast especially since its still being  a few days away and we don't know the exact track of the storm yet

........

[LibertyBell]

Just now, NEG NAO said:

I disagree there is still a  low chance of flakes in the air along the coast especially since its still being  a few days away and we don't know the exact track of the storm yet

........

oh sure flakes, I saw you talking about disruptions to football games, I figured you were talking about an MECS lol.

 

[eduggs]

Just now, HeadInTheClouds said:

It's also further north and west with the low than the GFS, just like Euro and Ukie. I think NYC metro and Long island are going to see a cold rain unfortunately. I may see a few inches but it won't be all snow even by me 20 miles north of 84. 

Probably not, but I wouldn't rule out mostly snow for your area. Looks like a little northerly surface drain north and east of the HV. If we can stave off any lower-mid-level warming from the decaying primary, I think you could do fine up there.

[HeadInTheClouds]

Just now, LibertyBell said:

if it's going to rain, why can't we get a warm rain?

Nah, 38 and rain is good for the soul. 

[the_other_guy]

7 minutes ago, Jeff Grann said:

There is a reason NYC averages less than 30" of snow a year. CP has already had 1/3rd of the yearly average in December... The least snowy month of winter. I really don't understand what you Coastal youth bitch about everytime it rains? If you got your way, you would have 7 feet a year. If you want that, you live in the wrong place. In April if you don't have another 15-20" that fell then you can bitch about not getting the snow you deserve. 

You can’t discount the fact that we are running 5+ degrees above normal with no end in sight on top of the stats you posted.

[NEG NAO]

1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

oh sure flakes, I saw you talking about disruptions to football games, I figured you were talking about an MECS lol.

 

talking about slippery surfaces and balls

[Tatamy]

18 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

It's also further north and west with the low than the GFS, just like Euro and Ukie. I think NYC metro and Long island are going to see a cold rain unfortunately. I may see a few inches but it won't be all snow even by me 20 miles north of 84. 

12z UKMET

[Tatamy]

12 UKMET at 96 hours

[NEG NAO]

3 minutes ago, Tatamy said:

12 UKMET at 96 hours

3 models now GFS - GFSV16 and UKIE with snow to the coast waiting on the EURO - CMC too amped ?

[mikem81]

Here is the Precip from 12Z sunday to Monday. Very small area that has snow potential as precip area versus cold air is limited to high elevations just away from the coast....

[HVSnowLover]

2 hours ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

It's going to be precarious even for us I84 peeps. Elevation and precip intensity will certainly help overcome marginal temps but  its going to be close for us in the valley. 

Yea that’s why I’m thinking  mostly white rain for your area but it could surprise if precip is very intense 

[HVSnowLover]

1 hour ago, mikem81 said:

Here is the Precip from 12Z sunday to Monday. Very small area that has snow potential as precip area versus cold air is limited to high elevations just away from the coast....

That model is drier than others though, CMC may be overdoing both events though 

[HVSnowLover]

2 hours ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

I would say thats a good bet for NYC metro. 

Unfortunately yea and bouncing between 33-35 and snow from Orange County north  but I don’t know how well it accumulates in lower elevations. 

[wdrag]

I think you're all on it...elevation dependent amounts..on the boards for potential of several inches high terrain snowfall...slushy 32-33F.  Long ways to go.  Not getting excited about NYC.  I just know that everyone is primed about mid month potential... however, this one is the first decent snow attempt in a while along I84 and lets see if we can this one first.  WPC latest 17z ensemble probs for 3" or more of snow. I won't comment again on his til tomorrow morning. 

 

 

[eduggs]

23 minutes ago, wdrag said:

I think you're all on it...elevation dependent amounts..on the boards for potential of several inches high terrain snowfall...slushy 32-33F.  Long ways to go.  Not getting excited about NYC.  I just know that everyone is primed about mid month potential... however, this one is the first decent snow attempt in a while along I84 and lets see if we can this one first.  WPC latest 17z ensemble probs for 3" or more of snow. I won't comment again on his til tomorrow morning. 

So often in the past I've seen people so focused on future possibilities (which may never materialize). that they are surprised by events in the near term that sneak up on them. Coastal snow events are not very common, even marginal ones. As a snow lover I'd be carefully monitoring and rooting for this if I were in elevated NNJ, through the Hudson Highlands, up into the southern Taconics. Even the I-80, I-287, lower Hudson Valley area has a chance of whitening the ground I think.

[HVSnowLover]

40 minutes ago, eduggs said:

So often in the past I've seen people so focused on future possibilities (which may never materialize). that they are surprised by events in the near term that sneak up on them. Coastal snow events are not very common, even marginal ones. As a snow lover I'd be carefully monitoring and rooting for this if I were in elevated NNJ, through the Hudson Highlands, up into the southern Taconics. Even the I-80, I-287, lower Hudson Valley area has a chance of whitening the ground I think.

Agree totally with your point. But also it’s a world of difference nyc/LI vs Hudson valley and points NW. Hudson valley can get dink and dunk storms in more so so patterns where as NYC/LI needs the right pattern and usually feasts on bigger coastal storms

 

Just look at the next two events for example nyc will likely be 100 percent rain while parts of the sub forum will end up mainly frozen for both events 

 

[HVSnowLover]

Euro is pretty awful with snow totals for the sub forum on Sunday and may be right but it does seem to bring a bit of snow down to the city. 

[eduggs]

The 18z NAM tracks the 700mb low to near Lake Ontario - maybe even slightly north of the Lake.  It looks a little north of other guidance with this feature. Brings a quick 3-6 hour precip. thump and then a pronounced dryslot. Followup showery precip with the decaying ULL looks to stay mostly N and W of the area. I'm not a fan of this solution but it could flash to a snow column pretty far south with those initial rates. I think it generally has the right idea with a NW primary and a tucked surface low. Obviously I'm rooting for more of a GFS type solution.

[eduggs]

57 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

Agree totally with your point. But also it’s a world of difference nyc/LI vs Hudson valley and points NW. Hudson valley can get dink and dunk storms in more so so patterns where as NYC/LI needs the right pattern and usually feasts on bigger coastal storms

 

Just look at the next two events for example nyc will likely be 100 percent rain while parts of the sub forum will end up mainly frozen for both events 

 

Yeah most decent events in the City, LI, and coastal NJ are preceded by an entrenched cold airmass. But I don't think you have to go very far N or W of the coast to be able to occasionally cash in our marginal events.

[wdrag]

1 hour ago, eduggs said:

So often in the past I've seen people so focused on future possibilities (which may never materialize). that they are surprised by events in the near term that sneak up on them. Coastal snow events are not very common, even marginal ones. As a snow lover I'd be carefully monitoring and rooting for this if I were in elevated NNJ, through the Hudson Highlands, up into the southern Taconics. Even the I-80, I-287, lower Hudson Valley area has a chance of whitening the ground I think.

Agreed 100%  ... marginal but need to see FGEN mid level convergence near I84.  Too early yet, i think. Gotta go.  Thanks for the inputs. 

[snowman19]

27 minutes ago, eduggs said:

The 18z NAM tracks the 700mb low to near Lake Ontario - maybe even slightly north of the Lake.  It looks a little north of other guidance with this feature. Brings a quick 3-6 hour precip. thump and then a pronounced dryslot. Followup showery precip with the decaying ULL looks to stay mostly N and W of the area. I'm not a fan of this solution but it could flash to a snow column pretty far south with those initial rates. I think it generally has the right idea with a NW primary and a tucked surface low. Obviously I'm rooting for more of a GFS type solution.

The new NAM solution doesn’t make sense, it’s absolutely torching the mid-levels and still printing out snow. You ain’t snowing with mid-level warmth like that. I’ll sell that run

[eduggs]

16 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The new NAM solution doesn’t make sense, it’s absolutely torching the mid-levels and still printing out snow. You ain’t snowing with mid-level warmth like that. I’ll sell that run

The NAM doesn't torch 850mb until after the bulk of the precip. passes through. Before and during it actually looks supportive of snow with a little elevation and distance from the coast. Check the soundings. You might be right to discount it but to me it looks plausible. To me the synoptics suggest quick thump and then dry slot. I'd prefer something longer duration but I don't see it right now.