Allsnow Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 Best weeklies run since March 2018. They look absolutely perfect for the month of January 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 2 hours ago, Allsnow said: Best weeklies run since March 2018. They look absolutely perfect for the month of January why don't you list the highlights of next month or post graphics Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 In coming days, a positive to strongly positive EPO will coincide with a negative to strongly negative AO. Since 1950, there were 13 cases where the EPO was +1.000 or above while the AO was -1.500 or below for at least three consecutive days during the January 1-20 period. In 3 cases, the Arctic block extended southward into the Middle Atlantic region (January 1-4, 1955; January 15-17, 1998; and, January 1-3, 2003). The composite pattern is one that favors above to much above normal temperatures and little or no snowfall through at least the first 10 days of January in much or all of the Middle Atlantic Region and southern New England. Central and Upstate New York, along with central and northern New England would have greater opportunities for snowfall. Based on the latest guidance, there is a growing possibility that New York City’s Central Park could have a mean temperature of 40° or above during the January 1-10 period. There have been 20 prior cases since record-keeping began in 1869. It still appears possible that the January 10-15 period could mark a transition to a potentially snowier pattern. The key will be the continuation of Arctic blocking. Following such warm starts to January, 60% of the above cases saw less than 2” snow during the second half of January. However, in the 30% of cases with 4” or more snow during the second half of January, the AO was predominantly negative. Half of those cases saw 10” or more snow during the second half of January (1907, 1966, and 2005). Although a continuation of Arctic blocking cannot ensure a snowy second half of January—1998 is one such exception, largely on account of the super El Niño—the general absence of such blocking has seen little or no snowfall during the January 16-31 period following such warm starts to January. Things to watch for going forward if a snowy second half of January is likely: Continuation or reinforcement of the persistent AO- regime Development of a trough underneath the block that extends into the Middle Atlantic region The coldest air in the hemisphere will likely be focused on Europe on account of what increasingly looks like a polar vortex-splitting major stratospheric warming event. Severe cold’s migration to Europe does not mean that snowfall will be lacking. In the meantime, inspired by the work of Hooralph, here’s a sortable table of New York City’s 10” or greater snowstorms (1950-present): https://public.tableau.com/profile/don.sutherland#!/vizhome/NYC10Snowstorms1950-Present/Dashboard1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 Thought this was interesting. I knew I had seen a similar H5 looking map. The event shown on today’s 12z euro looks really similar to December 18-20 1995. Any older people on here remember that one? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 10 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said: Thought this was interesting. I knew I had seen a similar H5 looking map. The event shown on today’s 12z euro looks really similar to December 18-20 1995. Any older people on here remember that one? Snow and ice storm, December 18-20, 1995 - Storm Summary (raymondcmartinjr.com) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 3 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: Snow and ice storm, December 18-20, 1995 - Storm Summary (raymondcmartinjr.com) Yea that’s where I got my images from. Was just a rhetorical question I suppose lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 Thought this was interesting. I knew I had seen a similar H5 looking map. The event shown on today’s 12z euro looks really similar to December 18-20 1995. Any older people on here remember that one?Of course, but now I realize that many people on here don’t. I feel old.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 I think NYC finishes January +3 but with multiple snow threats. Pretty crazy to think about. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 1, 2021 Author Share Posted January 1, 2021 15 minutes ago, Rjay said: I think NYC finishes January +3 but with multiple snow threats. Pretty crazy to think about. +8 first half -2 second half would do the trick 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 4 hours ago, Wentzadelphia said: Thought this was interesting. I knew I had seen a similar H5 looking map. The event shown on today’s 12z euro looks really similar to December 18-20 1995. Any older people on here remember that one? Yeah it was a good example of terrible pacific good Atlantic with a snow event. I always show that event as an example of what a -NAO does 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 Happy New Year all! Let's get some snow! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 Likewise, wishing everyone a Happy New Year and to add another topic later today for Jan 8-9. Just need time to think it through. Ensembles are timid despite 00z/1 GFS parallel, EC and GGEM on board. Will probably add the topic this afternoon but leave room for blocking forcing system too far south of us- ie a miss. I don't think it's a miss but I'm sure we can all envision how this might fail. Later, Walt 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 7 hours ago, Rjay said: I think NYC finishes January +3 but with multiple snow threats. Pretty crazy to think about. Yea, +3 in January can snow. I’m really at a loss to explain where the twitterologists are getting this super cold arctic pattern from. Is it possibly a snow pattern in January if we can pop a +PNA? Yea. Arctic, “polar vortex” death pattern? Not even close, there’s no cross-polar flow. Wishcasting galore right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 December ended at 39.2[+1.7]. The first 8 days of January are averaging 41degs.(36/45). Making it 36degs., or +3.0. Snow dates on various models, runs are 3rd.,9th and 12th. Probably not real as amounts/dates playing musical chairs. The Strat Warming is looking like a Fail as all TeleConnections except the WPO are getting less favorable by mid-month. Jan. 09-17 is averaging 37(32/41), or just 4 degrees better than the above Jan. 01-08---and one of those four degrees is climatological anyway. .........and Oh Yes: Happy Warm Year. 36*(65%RH) here at 6am. 35* at 7am. 41* by 10am. 43* by 2pm. 40* by 10am. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 There actually is some cross polar flow into Canada on the eps. Starts building on the 14th. Looks -AO driven to me. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 1 hour ago, snowman19 said: Yea, +3 in January can snow. I’m really at a loss to explain where the twitterologists are getting this super cold arctic pattern from. Is it possibly a snow pattern in January if we can pop a +PNA? Yea. Arctic, “polar vortex” death pattern? Not even close, there’s no cross-polar flow. Wishcasting galore right now No one is expecting an arctic pattern as far as I can tell. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 8 hours ago, Rjay said: I think NYC finishes January +3 but with multiple snow threats. Pretty crazy to think about. I may be reading out of context, so this may be off base. Are you predicting a monthly temp anomaly on the first of the month? Good luck with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 9 hours ago, Rjay said: I think NYC finishes January +3 but with multiple snow threats. Pretty crazy to think about. I think you’re spot on 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 6z GFS Para is on board for next weekend 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 A very icy 23F to start the new year. Ice and frost on every surface 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 5 minutes ago, jfklganyc said: A very icy 23F to start the new year. Ice and frost on every surface Where ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 9 hours ago, Rjay said: I think NYC finishes January +3 but with multiple snow threats. Pretty crazy to think about. Yeah, we could easily finish with above normal January snowfall and a warm departure. Islip averaged 38.0° in March 2018 and finished with 31” of snow. The NYC average in January is 32.6°. So March 2018 temperatures in a January would have been +5.4. It really comes down to getting a favorable Pacific and storm track with just cold enough for snow. February 2017 was another example on Long Island. Islip recorded 14.7”of snow at an average temperature of 37.8. NYC was able to go to 10.4” in December with a 39.3 average temperature. That’s why I think that we’ll continue to experience great snowstorms even as the winters continue to warm. We showed a few winters ago that we could go 40/40. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 27 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Where ? Hastings on Hudson Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 30 minutes ago, jfklganyc said: A very icy 23F to start the new year. Ice and frost on every surface 26 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Where ? Similar here in Mahopac, down in town it's 23/21 but up on my hill it's more like 29/23. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 19 minutes ago, bluewave said: The latest CIPS is on the mild and snowy train as a parade of storms track under the block. That is a very ugly PAC. EPO floodgates wide open 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 1 hour ago, moneypitmike said: I may be reading out of context, so this may be off base. Are you predicting a monthly temp anomaly on the first of the month? Good luck with that. Yes. We even have a yearly contest in the main forum. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 15 minutes ago, snowman19 said: That is a very ugly PAC. EPO floodgates wide open The retrograding block will also have a MJO 3-6 standing wave. We could very well go +EPO/+PNA/-AO/-NAO. So a high water content heavy wet snow for the storms that are cold enough. Maybe a continuation of the tree damage theme as branches could snap under the weight of the snow. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 Morning thoughts... Clouds will increase this morning. The line of precipitation currently stretching from central Virginia northwestward into Indiana will reach the region this afternoon or evening. Some mixed or frozen precipitation is possible far north and west of New York City. Elsewhere, periods of rain are likely. Temperatures will likely reach the lower 40s across much of the region. Afterward, temperatures could hold steady or slowly rise overnight. Likely high temperatures include: New York City (Central Park): 43° Newark: 44° Philadelphia: 44° The first 10 days of January will likely feature much above normal temperatures. Afterward, a somewhat colder and potentially snowier pattern could evolve. 30-Day Verification: New York City (Central Park): Average daily forecast: 43.4° Average temperature: 43.8° Average error: 1.3° Newark: Average daily forecast: 44.6° Average temperature: 44.5° Average error: 1.2° Philadelphia: Average daily forecast: 45.1° Average temperature: 45.2° Average error: 1.3° 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 16 minutes ago, snowman19 said: That is a very ugly PAC. EPO floodgates wide open Lol. That’s not a ugly map 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 21 minutes ago, snowman19 said: That is a very ugly PAC. EPO floodgates wide open This looks way better than what it showed in December for January. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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