January 2021 General Discussions & Observations Thread

[LibertyBell]

Thanks, Don, can you give me an estimate for JFK- I'm inferring you'd say 12-18?

and please one for MPO if you would?

 

[donsutherland1]

5 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Thanks, Don, can you give me an estimate for JFK- I'm inferring you'd say 12-18?

and please one for MPO if you would?

 

JFK: 12”-18”

MPO: 20”-30”

[CIK62]

The last day of January is averaging 24degs.(21/27), or -8.0.

Month to date is 35.2[+2.7].        January should end near 34.9[+2.4].

24*(53%RH) here at 6am/7am.               Flirted with 30* during the afternoon.           24* again by 8pm.

Coming snowstorm potentials: NYC

NAM      20"

CMC      23"

EURO    15"

GFS       15"

SREF     11"

I caution that the heaviest snow is falling tomorrow PM while surface T's and 850mb T's are minimal.     SREF probably senses this-----and loses 5"+ to the other models.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

It looks like this may have what it takes to crack the top 20 list in NYC of top storms of all time. They need 15.3 inches to do it. A lot of the guidance seems to give them a decent shot.

20 Largest Snowstorms All Time
Central Park in NYC
(through Jan 31, 2021)
Rank.Amount..Date
1……..27.5…..January 23, 2016
2……..26.9…..February 11-12, 2006
3……..25.8…..December 26-27, 1947
4……..21.0…..March 12-14, 1888
5……..20.9…..February 25-26, 2010
6……..20.2…..January 7-8, 1996
7……..20.0…..December 26-27, 2010
8……..19.8…..February 16-17, 2003
9……..19.0…..January 26-27, 2011
10…..18.1…..March 7-8, 1941
11…..18.1…..January 22-24, 1935
12…..18.0…..December 26, 1872
13…..17.7…..February 5-7, 1978
14…..17.6…..February 11-12, 1983
15…..17.5…..February 4-7, 1920
16…..17.4…..February 3-4, 1961
17…..16.0…..December 19-20, 1948
18…..16.0…..February 12-13, 1899
19…..15.3…..February 9-10, 1969
20…..15.2…..December 11-12, 1960

[EastonSN+]

MJO still looks like stuck in 7. Will this limit the cold push to east? I notice v.16 is not as cold in longer range.

[uncle W]

4 hours ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

It looks like this may have what it takes to crack the top 20 list in NYC of top storms of all time. They need 15.3 inches to do it. A lot of the guidance seems to give them a decent shot.

20 Largest Snowstorms All Time
Central Park in NYC
(through Jan 31, 2021)
Rank.Amount..Date
1……..27.5…..January 23, 2016
2……..26.9…..February 11-12, 2006
3……..25.8…..December 26-27, 1947
4……..21.0…..March 12-14, 1888
5……..20.9…..February 25-26, 2010
6……..20.2…..January 7-8, 1996
7……..20.0…..December 26-27, 2010
8……..19.8…..February 16-17, 2003
9……..19.0…..January 26-27, 2011
10…..18.1…..March 7-8, 1941
11…..18.1…..January 22-24, 1935
12…..18.0…..December 26, 1872
13…..17.7…..February 5-7, 1978
14…..17.6…..February 11-12, 1983
15…..17.5…..February 4-7, 1920
16…..17.4…..February 3-4, 1961
17…..16.0…..December 19-20, 1948
18…..16.0…..February 12-13, 1899
19…..15.3…..February 9-10, 1969
20…..15.2…..December 11-12, 1960

the bottom feeders were great

[MJO812]

12 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

MJO still looks like stuck in 7. Will this limit the cold push to east? I notice v.16 is not as cold in longer range.

Check the gefs euro and gfs along with the cmc

[SnoSki14]

1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said:

MJO still looks like stuck in 7. Will this limit the cold push to east? I notice v.16 is not as cold in longer range.

The MJO isn't the end all be all. It's currently in phase 6 and we're getting a blizzard.

[donsutherland1]

January finished with a mean temperature of 34.8° (2.2° above normal) in New York City. February will likely finish with temperatures averaging within 0.5° of normal in both the New York City and Philadelphia areas.

A major to perhaps historic snowstorm is now moving into the region. Parts of Long Island could see its biggest snowfall since March 20-22, 2018. The New York City and Philadelphia areas could experience their largest snowfall since January 22-24, 2016. Blizzard conditions are possible in parts of the region tomorrow afternoon and evening.

Enough warmer air could come in off the Atlantic Ocean to change the snow to mixed precipitation or rain along New Jersey's south shore, parts of Long Island and southeastern New England (Cape Cod and Nantucket). Some of the guidance continues to bring the mixing into New York City.

Final snowfall estimates:

Allentown: 16"-24"
Boston: 5"-10"
Bridgeport: 12"-18"
Islip: 12"-18"
Mount Pocono: 20"-30"
New York City: 14"-20"
Newark: 16"-24"
Philadelphia: 7"-14"
Poughkeepsie: 12"-18"

After somewhat milder air returns late in the first week in February, another shot of cold air is possible early in the second week of the month. That cold shot could be preceded by a storm.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.1°C for the week centered around January 20. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.85°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.07°C. La Niña conditions will likely prevail at least through meteorological winter.

The SOI was +6.18 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -2.496.

On January 30 the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 2.358 (RMM). The January 29-adjusted amplitude was 2.446.

Following a significant stratospheric warming event, the stratosphere has continued to cool. Based on the latest guidance, no significant stratospheric warming event is likely into the first week of February.  

The significant December 16-17 snowstorm during what has been a blocky December suggests that seasonal snowfall prospects have increased especially from north of Philadelphia into southern New England. At New York City, there is a high probability based on historic cases that an additional 20" or more snow will accumulate after December. Were blocking to disappear, snowfall prospects would diminish.