January 2021 General Discussions & Observations Thread

[LibertyBell]

On 1/24/2021 at 7:33 PM, Allsnow said:

His Tuesday call of supression looks great. Only 2-4 for sne 

that was good for a few laughs, it was the one time I was laughing it up when we changed over, yea some clown thought this storm would be suppressed lmao.

 

[wdrag]

Feb 7-9 has been on my radar for a day or so...continues but no topic for another day or two. I want to see some NAEFS growth.  This should be after the warmup of Feb 4-6.  Could be an inland runner.  At least we have options... probably good to wait and see how 2/1 modeling evolves. 

[CIK62]

The last 5 of days of January are averaging 28degs.(24/32).         Making it 25degs., or -7.0.

Month to date is 36.5[+4.2].        January should end between 34.6 and 35.1.

The first 12 days of February are averaging  35degs. (30/40).

EURO dropped from 10" to 2" on snow for Jan. 31---Feb. 02.        CMC and GFS still about 8" to 12".        Cobb Method 06Z snow is 10" over 48 hours>>>>>  Jan. 31 PM to Feb. 02 PM.        Snow is on and off with a borderline T, except as the start.

35*(93%RH) here at 6am/7am.     Skies clearing.     38* by 9am.        32* by 10pm.

[MJO812]

4 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The long range models have a different look after February 2nd than we typically get during a La Niña February. Much more of a +PNA ridge near the West Coast. The trough looks like it will be in the Plains instead of near the Pacific Northwest. This goes to the competing influences theme that we have seen all winter.

EPS

February La Niña composite since 2000

 

 

 

If the MJo goes into 8 , February might be saved and very active. 

[LibertyBell]

10 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The long range models have a different look after February 2nd than we typically get during a La Niña February. Much more of a +PNA ridge near the West Coast. The trough looks like it will be in the Plains instead of near the Pacific Northwest. This goes to the competing influences theme that we have seen all winter.

EPS

February La Niña composite since 2000

 

 

 

it's awesome to see climate change breaking down the usual boring enso coupling.

 

[EastonSN+]

Looking at other forums looks like NAO/AO should stay negative for the next few weeks based on polar vortex being weak.

If we can just get the MJO into 8!

[wdrag]

GFSv16 implementation probably delayed til mid March. 

[LibertyBell]

18 minutes ago, wdrag said:

GFSv16 implementation probably delayed til mid March. 

whats the hold up, Walt?  I thought the everyone was saying it's performing so much better.

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts...

In the wake of yesterday’s minor system, today will be variably cloudy and seasonably cold. Temperatures will likely top out in the upper 30s and lower 40s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 39°

Newark: 41°

Philadelphia: 42°

A more significant snowfall is possible early next week. More than half the EPS ensemble members from the 1/27 0z run showed 6” or more snow for New York City.

[Brian5671]

Last year was the MJO of 4-5-6, this year it's all 7

[EastonSN+]

34 minutes ago, bluewave said:

If the current guidance is close, then we may set the new record for the longest February phase 7 stall.

 

As you had stated before phase 7 is bad past very beginning of February. 

This would be the ultimate downer if this happened.

[wdrag]

47 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

whats the hold up, Walt?  I thought the everyone was saying it's performing so much better.

Model runtime logistics...  it will happen... and maybe it will happen closer to what was previously discussed?  They'll get it all worked out. I'm pretty satisfied with what we have now... If the models improve too much, lots of folks will need to reinvent themselves.  Realllyyy  - look at the lead time in topics of impact events. Consistently 5 days +.  

[bluewave]

10 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

As you had stated before phase 7 is bad past very beginning of February. 

This would be the ultimate downer if this happened.

A trough in the Pacific NW would be bad beyond February 2nd. But the trough in the Plains with phase 7 would be mixed. We would get the occasional cutter. But they could pull in colder air from the Plains behind the cold front. Maybe some gradient winter storm possibilities. As always, gradient storms only work if you end up in the right side of the gradient. Maybe better for interior sections? Then we have to see what happens with the mid and late February details which is beyond the range of the extended guidance.

[Allsnow]

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

A trough in the Pacific NW would be bad beyond February 2nd. But the trough in the Plains with phase 7 would be mixed. We would get the occasional cutter. But they could pull in colder air from the Plains behind the cold front. Maybe some gradient winter storm possibilities. As always, gradient storms only work if you end up in the right side of the gradient. Maybe better for interior sections? Then we have to see what happens with the mid and late February details which is beyond the range of the extended guidance.

We will have blocking so the gradient might be further south along with the TPV in eastern Canada 

[Allsnow]

6 hours ago, bluewave said:

The long range models have a different look after February 2nd than we typically get during a La Niña February. Much more of a +PNA ridge near the West Coast. The trough looks like it will be in the Plains instead of near the Pacific Northwest. This goes to the competing influences theme that we have seen all winter.

EPS

February La Niña composite since 2000

 

 

 

@snowman19 lolz 

[wdrag]

Can't keep up w all the posts.  Old news and comparative non-news. NYC CP coldest since Feb 1 2019 seems possible/probable Saturday or Sunday morning?? About 12-13F?

May be preceded by a narrow band of squalls early Friday (prior to sunrise?), especially se NYS/PA/nw NJ.  Lots of hazy white virga all day Friday per cold pool aloft: Northerly flow after secondary CFP early Friday leaves this dry sourced and unable to get more than passing flake to the ground during the daylight hours?

[uncle W]

3 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Can't keep up w all the posts.  Old news and comparative non-news. NYC CP coldest since 2019 seems possible/probable Saturday or Sunday morning?? About 12-14F?

May be preceded by a narrow band of squalls early Friday (prior to sunrise?), especially se NYS/PA/nw NJ.  Lots of hazy white virga all day Friday per cold pool aloft: Northerly flow after secondary CFP early Friday leaves this dry sourced and unable to get more than passing flake to the ground during the daylight hours?

the coldest so far this winter in Central park is 20 set in December...19 is the record for the highest winter min set in 2002...I think February has the coldest temp this year and maybe the biggest snow...

[Allsnow]

Euro has high temps barley above 19 Saturday for nyc 

[bluewave]

10 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

it's awesome to see climate change breaking down the usual boring enso coupling.

 

This will be the 3rd winter in a row when a straight ENSO based seasonal forecast didn’t work out. Competing influences have been the way to go for 18-19,19-20, and 20-21. The previous 3 winters of 15-16, 16-17, and 17-18 were exaggerations or cartoon versions of ENSO climatology. 15-16 had the classic El Niño progression. Historic frontloaded  +13.3 warmth followed by one of the best backloaded El Niño snowstorms  in late January. 16-17 had the backloaded La Niña record warmth, but great snowstorms throughout. 17-18 had the expected front-loaded La Niña cold and snow through Jan 8th, then the historic backloaded La Niña 80° warmth in February with average temperatures near 40°. 

 

 

 

 

[donsutherland1]

The recent light snow event brought 0.1" snow to New York City's Central Park. However, Boston picked up 4.6" snow. That was the third 4" or greater snow event Boston has seen during winter 2020-21. The last winter with at least three such events was winter 2017-18 when Boston had five such snowfalls.

Tomorrow will be fair and colder. The coldest air mass so far this season will begin moving into the region. In its wake, Friday and possibly Saturday could see high temperatures only in the lower and middle 20s in much of the region. Central Park will very likely see its first teens of the season.

The ensembles suggest that the PNA could approach positive levels or even go positive near the end of the month into the start of February. That could allow for the potential of a snow event during the February 1-2 period before milder air returns during the first week of February.

The EPS ensemble forecast 500 mb pattern in eastern North America is somewhat similar to that on January 30, 1966 except that the trough is modeled somewhat to the south of where it was then. The January 29-31, 1966 storm brought a widespread 6" or more snowfall from Washington, DC to Boston. In short, the forecast pattern suggests potential and it is similar to one case where the snowfall potential was realized. Nevertheless, one should not use the 1966 case to infer largely identical outcomes. The evolution of the storm will determine where the heaviest snows fall and how much snow falls. At present, the potential currently exists for a significant (6" or greater) snowfall in some parts of the Middle Atlantic and/or southern New England regions.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.1°C for the week centered around January 20. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.85°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.07°C. La Niña conditions will likely prevail at least through meteorological winter.

The SOI was +30.39 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -3.313.

On January 26 the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.734 (RMM). The January 25-adjusted amplitude was 1.891.

Following a significant stratospheric warming event, the stratosphere has continued to cool. Based on the latest guidance, no significant stratospheric warming event is likely into the first week of February.  

The significant December 16-17 snowstorm during what has been a blocky December suggests that seasonal snowfall prospects have increased especially from north of Philadelphia into southern New England. At New York City, there is a high probability based on historic cases that an additional 20" or more snow will accumulate after December. Were blocking to disappear, snowfall prospects would diminish.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal January. January will likely finish with a mean temperature near 34.8°.

 

[weatherpruf]

24 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

The recent light snow event brought 0.1" snow to New York City's Central Park. However, Boston picked up 4.6" snow. That was the third 4" or greater snow event Boston has seen during winter 2020-21. The last winter with at least three such events was winter 2017-18 when Boston had five such snowfalls.

Tomorrow will be fair and colder. The coldest air mass so far this season will begin moving into the region. In its wake, Friday and possibly Saturday could see high temperatures only in the lower and middle 20s in much of the region. Central Park will very likely see its first teens of the season.

The ensembles suggest that the PNA could approach positive levels or even go positive near the end of the month into the start of February. That could allow for the potential of a snow event during the February 1-2 period before milder air returns during the first week of February.

The EPS ensemble forecast 500 mb pattern in eastern North America is somewhat similar to that on January 30, 1966 except that the trough is modeled somewhat to the south of where it was then. The January 29-31, 1966 storm brought a widespread 6" or more snowfall from Washington, DC to Boston. In short, the forecast pattern suggests potential and it is similar to one case where the snowfall potential was realized. Nevertheless, one should not use the 1966 case to infer largely identical outcomes. The evolution of the storm will determine where the heaviest snows fall and how much snow falls. At present, the potential currently exists for a significant (6" or greater) snowfall in some parts of the Middle Atlantic and/or southern New England regions.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.1°C for the week centered around January 20. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.85°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.07°C. La Niña conditions will likely prevail at least through meteorological winter.

The SOI was +30.39 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -3.313.

On January 26 the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.734 (RMM). The January 25-adjusted amplitude was 1.891.

Following a significant stratospheric warming event, the stratosphere has continued to cool. Based on the latest guidance, no significant stratospheric warming event is likely into the first week of February.  

The significant December 16-17 snowstorm during what has been a blocky December suggests that seasonal snowfall prospects have increased especially from north of Philadelphia into southern New England. At New York City, there is a high probability based on historic cases that an additional 20" or more snow will accumulate after December. Were blocking to disappear, snowfall prospects would diminish.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal January. January will likely finish with a mean temperature near 34.8°.

 

FWIW I don't think the history matters much anymore. We've just lost almost all Jan with nada. hard to see pulling out 20 inches the rest of this winter. Saw many just like it in the 80's. However, i wouldn't place bets on mother nature. If I knew the future, I'd be rich....always appreciate your informative posts. 

[MJO812]

Back to the cold on the gfs

[snowman19]

5 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Back to the cold on the gfs

EPS disagrees and pumps the SE ridge big time

 

[MJO812]

7 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

EPS disagrees and pumps the SE ridge big time

 

Where ?

 

Eps doesn't show a big warmup

[snowman19]

Just now, MJO812 said:

Where ?

Eps doesn't show a big warmup

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf-ens&region=namer&pkg=z500a&runtime=2021012800&fh=240

[MJO812]

4 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf-ens&region=namer&pkg=z500a&runtime=2021012800&fh=240

Nothing warm at all

A brief warmup is expected with a cutter system.  It gets cold behind the cutter.

Gfs shows it and also EPS

[CIK62]

The last 4 days of January are averaging 25degs.(21/30).        Making it 23degs., or -9.0.

Month to date is 36.4[+4.1].      January should end between 34.7 and 34.9.

Starting to look  like a scary snowstorm coming with the three main models ranging now from 11" up to 23".      Trouble is, it is all borderline T dependent.

More Good News:   The first 13 days of February are averaging 27degs.(22/33) on this 06Z GFS run, uncorrected.

29*(57%RH) here at 6am.       28* at 8am.    It was 31* back at Midnite.       32* by 2pm.         33* at 3pm.          27* by 6pm.        24* by 8pm.      21* by 9pm.       

[bluewave]

Friday should be the coldest day in over a year. The last time NYC had a high temperature of 25° or lower was 12-19-19. NYC hasn’t had a low of 15° or colder since 2-15-20.

 

2019-12-19

25

16

20.5

-15.8

KNYC   GFS MOS GUIDANCE    1/28/2021  0000 UTC                      
 DT /JAN  28            /JAN  29                /JAN  30          /  
 HR   06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 18 00 
 X/N                    34          15          25          14    29 
 TMP  30 27 26 28 32 31 27 22 19 17 16 19 22 23 22 19 17 16 15 26 28 
 DPT  17 14 12 10  6  2  0 -3 -5 -5 -5 -6 -6 -4 -3 -2 -2 -2 -1 -1  1 

2020-02-15

31

14

 

[uncle W]

13 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Friday should be the coldest day in over a year. The last time NYC had a high temperature of 25° or lower was 12-19-19. NYC hasn’t had a low of 15° or colder since 2-15-20.

 

2019-12-19

25

16

20.5

-15.8

KNYC   GFS MOS GUIDANCE    1/28/2021  0000 UTC                      
 DT /JAN  28            /JAN  29                /JAN  30          /  
 HR   06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 18 00 
 X/N                    34          15          25          14    29 
 TMP  30 27 26 28 32 31 27 22 19 17 16 19 22 23 22 19 17 16 15 26 28 
 DPT  17 14 12 10  6  2  0 -3 -5 -5 -5 -6 -6 -4 -3 -2 -2 -2 -1 -1  1 

2020-02-15

31

14

 

winters coldest max...total days max below 20...
19 or lower max's and low max...

2019-20...0....25

2018-19...2....14

2017-18...5....13

2016-17...0....23

2015-16...1....15

2014-15...1....19

2013-14...3....17

2012-13...0....20
2011-12...0....27.
2010-11...0....23.
2009-10...0....20
2008-09...1....16
2007-08...0....20
2006-07...1....18
2005-06...0....24
2004-05...2....18
2003-04...4....15
2002-03...1....15
2001-02...0....31
2000-01...0....25
1999-00...1....19
1998-99...0....25.
1997-98...0....29.
1996-97...1....17
1995-96...3....17
1994-95...0....20
1993-94...5....10
1992-93...0....27
1991-92...0....23
1990-91...0....20
1989-90...1....18
1988-89...0....20.
1987-88...1....17
1986-87...1....19
1985-86...0....22
1984-85...1......9
1983-84...3....13
1982-83...0....21
1981-82...6....15
1980-81...3....14
1979-80...0....21
1978-79...6....13
1977-78...0....21
1976-77...5....12
1975-76...2....15
1974-75...0....27
1973-74...0....22
1972-73...1....18.
1971-72...1....15
1970-71...4....12
1969-70...3....14
1968-69...0....22
1967-68...4....13
1966-67...1....16
1965-66...1....19
1964-65...3....16
1963-64...0....22
1962-63...1....13
1961-62...0....24
1960-61...2....19
1959-60...0....23
1958-59...0....22
1957-58...2....10
1956-57...1....12
1955-56...1....18
1954-55...1....17
1953-54...0....21
1952-53...0....29.
1951-52...0....20
1950-51...0....20
1949-50...0....22
1948-49...0....22.
1947-48...2....18.
......................................................................
1942-43...2......8.
1935-36...4....16
1934-35...5....16
1933-34...6......8.
1917-18.12......2.

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts...

Today will be variably cloudy and cold. A strong cold front will cross the region this afternoon. Some areas could see some flurries or even a burst of snow. Temperatures will likely top out in the lower and middle 30s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 32°

Newark: 33°

Philadelphia: 34°

A significant snowfall is possible early next week. Approximately 75% of the EPS ensemble members from the 1/28 0z run showed 6” or more snow for New York City. GFS soundings suggest that there will be some rain or sleet in the City and that the snow could be fairly wet as temperatures hover around 33° or 34° during much of the storm.